Okay so by his calculations, USA will still have highest GDP per capita but how can the world support another 1 billion + people with 2x the GDP per capita of the average European? Do we have even have enough resources for that?
I also lol'ed at "European culture continues to prize long vacations, early retirements, and shorter work weeks over acquiring more stuff, at least in comparison to many other developed countries,such as the United States." Maybe thats where the USA is headed
$123,000,000,000,000*
*Chinaâs estimated economy by the year 2040. Be warned.
Robert Fogel is director of the Center for Population Economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and winner of the 1993 Nobel Prize in Economics
In 2040, the Chinese economy will reach $123 trillion, or nearly three times the economic output of the entire globe in 2000. China's per capita income will hit $85,000, more than double the forecast for the European Union, and also much higher than that of India and Japan. In other words, the average Chinese megacity dweller will be living twice as well as the average Frenchman when China goes from a poor country in 2000 to a super rich country in2040. Although it will not have overtaken the United States in per capita wealth, according to my forecasts, China's share of global GDP -- 40 percent -- will dwarf that of the United States (14 percent) and the European Union (5 percent)30 years from now. This is what economic hegemony will look like.
And Europe? Europe, by which I mean the 15 earliest EU members, faces twin challenges of demography and culture, its economic future burdened by a mix of reproductive habits and consumer restraint. The population of Western European countries has been aging rapidly, and that is likely to continue over the next several decades.
Europe's culture confounds economists.Citizens of Europe's wealthy countries are not working longer hours to make higher salaries and accumulate more goods. Rather, European culture continues to prize long vacations, early retirements, and shorter work weeks over acquiring more stuff, at least in comparison to many other developed countries,such as the United States.
To the West, the notion of a world in which the center of global economic gravity lies in Asia may seem unimaginable. But it wouldn't be the first time. As China scholars, who take a long view of history, often point out, China was the world's largest economy for much of the last two millennia.(Chris Patten, the last British governor of Hong Kong, reckons China has been the globe's top economy for 18 of the past 20 centuries.) While Europe was fumbling in the Dark Ages and fighting disastrous religious wars, China cultivated the highest standards of living in the world. Today, the notion of arising China is, in Chinese eyes, merely a return to the status quo.
Full Article:
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/01/04/123000000000000?page=0,0
I also lol'ed at "European culture continues to prize long vacations, early retirements, and shorter work weeks over acquiring more stuff, at least in comparison to many other developed countries,such as the United States." Maybe thats where the USA is headed
$123,000,000,000,000*
*Chinaâs estimated economy by the year 2040. Be warned.
Robert Fogel is director of the Center for Population Economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and winner of the 1993 Nobel Prize in Economics
In 2040, the Chinese economy will reach $123 trillion, or nearly three times the economic output of the entire globe in 2000. China's per capita income will hit $85,000, more than double the forecast for the European Union, and also much higher than that of India and Japan. In other words, the average Chinese megacity dweller will be living twice as well as the average Frenchman when China goes from a poor country in 2000 to a super rich country in2040. Although it will not have overtaken the United States in per capita wealth, according to my forecasts, China's share of global GDP -- 40 percent -- will dwarf that of the United States (14 percent) and the European Union (5 percent)30 years from now. This is what economic hegemony will look like.
And Europe? Europe, by which I mean the 15 earliest EU members, faces twin challenges of demography and culture, its economic future burdened by a mix of reproductive habits and consumer restraint. The population of Western European countries has been aging rapidly, and that is likely to continue over the next several decades.
Europe's culture confounds economists.Citizens of Europe's wealthy countries are not working longer hours to make higher salaries and accumulate more goods. Rather, European culture continues to prize long vacations, early retirements, and shorter work weeks over acquiring more stuff, at least in comparison to many other developed countries,such as the United States.
To the West, the notion of a world in which the center of global economic gravity lies in Asia may seem unimaginable. But it wouldn't be the first time. As China scholars, who take a long view of history, often point out, China was the world's largest economy for much of the last two millennia.(Chris Patten, the last British governor of Hong Kong, reckons China has been the globe's top economy for 18 of the past 20 centuries.) While Europe was fumbling in the Dark Ages and fighting disastrous religious wars, China cultivated the highest standards of living in the world. Today, the notion of arising China is, in Chinese eyes, merely a return to the status quo.
Full Article:
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/01/04/123000000000000?page=0,0
