2025: The Year Of Our Lord.

poopy

poopy

Hi all, I'm Poopy!

This is going to be my new POTUS-term macro/vol-journal. I won't go into specific maturities and strike-selection but I will post some payoffs on screen builds with vol and D1 assumptions.

There is no path for my President (Biden) to win in November so here's how I see the first half of 2025.

- EU mil-spending exceeding 4% of GDP in the majors and up to 6% with new (NATO) members in a failed attempt to backstop Kiev, but it will be too little, too late while Trump chortles Putin's balls. Zero buffer as Kiev falls and our hawks retire.

- US House remains GOP and Senate 53/47 GOP even with a likely win by Tester. Tax cut will sail through but not convince biz and we will see a contraction in spending. Sycophant at the Fed and massive printing. Even if Powell remains he will be castrated.

How do you reconcile $40T in debt? Dilute the b*tch.

- We will see massive layoffs in tech and industrials starting with enterprise software, autos and homebuilders by June 2025.

Prelim SPX projection is 4800 by end of July 2025. Crash possibility due to geopolitical event is highest in 30Y.
 
Trump is emboldened now so Vance will be off his radar. Burgum will get the nod. Cannot be cucked by Vance.
 
poopy said:
EU mil-spending exceeding 4% of GDP in the majors and up to 6% with new (NATO) members in a failed attempt to backstop Kiev, but it will be too little, too late while Trump chortles Putin's balls. Zero buffer as Kiev falls and our hawks retire.
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Was just telling some folks yesterday that I think Ukraine’s defeat is inevitable at this stage. IMO they manage to hold on into ‘25 but run out of manpower & morale over the winter, and the front collapses in late spring/early summer. Regardless of who’s president.
 
poopy said:
- US House remains GOP and Senate 53/47 GOP even with a likely win by Tester. Tax cut will sail through but not convince biz and we will see a contraction in spending. Sycophant at the Fed and massive printing. Even if Powell remains he will be castrated.

How do you reconcile $40T in debt? Dilute the b*tch.

- We will see massive layoffs in tech and industrials starting with enterprise software, autos and homebuilders by June 2025.
More...

Seems like a contradictory view. I don’t see how you get massive layoffs on the heels of a material fiscal stimulus. More likely is that the end of the border rush + deportations (self- and otherwise) redline the labor market and inflation breaks out again starting in the last few months of the year, becoming obvious by early 2026.

Asset prices should go bonkers as the smart money flees into RE and large cap stocks perceived to have pricing power. Bitcoin?
 
Trump maybe screwed himself by scheduling the debate prior to the convention. I actually wonder if this wasn’t a strategic move by Dem insiders to force Biden aside. I think Dem party elites have abandoned Biden wholesale but not sure how much the ship can be turned in the next two weeks, based on procedural rules and the like.
 
Specterx said:
Was just telling some folks yesterday that I think Ukraine’s defeat is inevitable at this stage. IMO they manage to hold on into ‘25 but run out of manpower & morale over the winter, and the front collapses in late spring/early summer. Regardless of who’s president.
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Russia already lost even if it manages to hold on to what it stole thus far.
 
2rosy said:
obama said "don't under estimate Joe's ability". it ain't over :)
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it is over. If it comes to Trump vs Biden, Trump wins as things are today. There could
Always be some tape with Trump “killing” someone but barring that election is over if it is Trump vs Biden.
 
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