2025: The Year Of Our Lord.

getthatintoya said:
LOL put a couple of bucks on Kanye West for me thx
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Whenever someone offers you 250-1,you take it.

If John Cougar Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar,I'll be a very wealthy man!

:D:D

(For clarity,I was paraphrasing from a sitcom,to get a laugh.Im not a degenerate gambler.:D)
 
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poopy said:
Trump winning after the disastrous first debate. A cessation of all US weapons aid and support.
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Yeah that is the premise. For sure, that's going to hurt.

But Russia is in a pretty bad shape, all things considered:
Very close to being out of tanks.
Artillery has been on a clear down trend.
The non-war economy is tanking. Official statistics of course seek to tell a different story.
Wildcard: Diseases in the Russian ranks are increasing, I don't know how bad it will get but suffice to say invading armies have been beaten by disease in the past.

Points against:
UA energy infra was devastated in 2024 due to EU/US dragging their feet on providing necessary air defense, and RU switching to a burnt ground strategy and do damage that cannot be easily repaired, since they no longer think they can take the whole country.
Kreml still finds ways to send non-Muscowites to their deaths. Losses of 1000-1300 men per day can be sustained indefinitely assuming ethnic minorities are fine with that.
China probably loves the stalemate and might up support for Russia to keep it going.
North Korean troops might show up in Europe (anything in possible with Trump in power).
Far fewer UA pilots than needed have been allowed to train on F16. Sweden (allegedly) has been stopped from sending its fighter JAS Gripen to UA w/ reference to American components (there was a debacle a few weeks ago when everything had been prepared for an announcement). So UA still won't have adequate Western airpower by 2025.
UA is definitely going to be short on artillery ammo again if the US supply dries up again. Then again, I think that is also going to be case on the RU side extrapolating losses in 2024.

UA holding on in a stalemate or UA actually being able to retake their territory are two different things though, the latter looks really hard without US support.
 
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poopy said:
Hi all, I'm Poopy!

This is going to be my new POTUS-term macro/vol-journal. I won't go into specific maturities and strike-selection but I will post some payoffs on screen builds with vol and D1 assumptions.

There is no path for my President (Biden) to win in November so here's how I see the first half of 2025.

- EU mil-spending exceeding 4% of GDP in the majors and up to 6% with new (NATO) members in a failed attempt to backstop Kiev, but it will be too little, too late while Trump chortles Putin's balls. Zero buffer as Kiev falls and our hawks retire.

- US House remains GOP and Senate 53/47 GOP even with a likely win by Tester. Tax cut will sail through but not convince biz and we will see a contraction in spending. Sycophant at the Fed and massive printing. Even if Powell remains he will be castrated.

How do you reconcile $40T in debt? Dilute the b*tch.

- We will see massive layoffs in tech and industrials starting with enterprise software, autos and homebuilders by June 2025.

Prelim SPX projection is 4800 by end of July 2025. Crash possibility due to geopolitical event is highest in 30Y.
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Shouldn't count him out yet. Many do not remember his floundering 2019-20 primary run:

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/25/biden-iowa-new-hampshire-polls2020-1510351
 
Snuskpelle said:
Yeah that is the premise. For sure, that's going to hurt.

But Russia is in a pretty bad shape, all things considered:
Very close to being out of tanks.
Artillery has been on a clear down trend.
The non-war economy is tanking. Official statistics of course seek to tell a different story.
Wildcard: Diseases in the Russian ranks are increasing, I don't know how bad it will get but suffice to say invading armies have been beaten by disease in the past.

Points against:
UA energy infra was devastated in 2024 due to EU/US dragging their feet on providing necessary air defense, and RU switching to a burnt ground strategy and do damage that cannot be easily repaired, since they no longer think they can take the whole country.
Kreml still finds ways to send non-Muscowites to their deaths. Losses of 1000-1300 men per day can be sustained indefinitely assuming ethnic minorities are fine with that.
China probably loves the stalemate and might up support for Russia to keep it going.
North Korean troops might show up in Europe (anything in possible with Trump in power).
Far fewer UA pilots than needed have been allowed to train on F16. Sweden (allegedly) has been stopped from sending its fighter JAS Gripen to UA w/ reference to American components (there was a debacle a few weeks ago when everything had been prepared for an announcement). So UA still won't have adequate Western airpower by 2025.
UA is definitely going to be short on artillery ammo again if the US supply dries up again. Then again, I think that is also going to be case on the RU side extrapolating losses in 2024.

UA holding on in a stalemate or UA actually being able to retake their territory are two different things though, the latter looks really hard without US support.
More...
I don't read it much, but the best objective war coverage, updated
daily, can be found here.

https://www.understandingwar.org/

fwiw
---> And it's worth a bookmark. Click around there. It's not necessarily the most intuitive website, but it's pretty straight forward.
 
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vanzandt said:
I don't read it much, but the best objective war coverage, updated
daily, can be found here.

https://www.understandingwar.org/

fwiw
---> and it's worth a bookmark.
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Thanks, will have a look. [on first glance it looks solid, bookmarked]

A rather good Swedish 1-man aggregator/blogger (unashamedly pro-Ukrainian and hence a tendency towards selective and speculative reporting, but striving to be factually correct) is https://cornucopia.se/ (Google Translate) Most notably, early in the war when Swedish media was panicking and predicting Ukraine's defeat within days he called the reversal of fortunes before anyone else I was reading at the time. I also read it as it is a good coverage on the Russian disinformation related to the war, which practically always makes it into Swedish media (because the news outlets of North Korea's best buddy are treated as if they were impartial by our media, in an effort to "show both sides of the story").
 
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Snuskpelle said:
Yeah that is the premise. For sure, that's going to hurt.

But Russia is in a pretty bad shape, all things considered:
Very close to being out of tanks.
Artillery has been on a clear down trend.
The non-war economy is tanking. Official statistics of course seek to tell a different story.
Wildcard: Diseases in the Russian ranks are increasing, I don't know how bad it will get but suffice to say invading armies have been beaten by disease in the past.

Points against:
UA energy infra was devastated in 2024 due to EU/US dragging their feet on providing necessary air defense, and RU switching to a burnt ground strategy and do damage that cannot be easily repaired, since they no longer think they can take the whole country.
Kreml still finds ways to send non-Muscowites to their deaths. Losses of 1000-1300 men per day can be sustained indefinitely assuming ethnic minorities are fine with that.
China probably loves the stalemate and might up support for Russia to keep it going.
North Korean troops might show up in Europe (anything in possible with Trump in power).
Far fewer UA pilots than needed have been allowed to train on F16. Sweden (allegedly) has been stopped from sending its fighter JAS Gripen to UA w/ reference to American components (there was a debacle a few weeks ago when everything had been prepared for an announcement). So UA still won't have adequate Western airpower by 2025.
UA is definitely going to be short on artillery ammo again if the US supply dries up again. Then again, I think that is also going to be case on the RU side extrapolating losses in 2024.

UA holding on in a stalemate or UA actually being able to retake their territory are two different things though, the latter looks really hard without US support.
More...

My view is that the Rus-Chi-NK axis outproduces the West by a factor of 3 to 5 when it comes to explosives. Slave labor in North Korea is cheap. Ukraine is almost to the bottom of the manpower barrel and morale is sinking fast as it dawns on people that Putin will never negotiate in good faith, and never stop the war as he has no incentive to do so - quite the opposite.

There’s simply nothing Ukraine can do about the relentless losses to artillery fire and glide bombs; there’s no fancy Western tech which can ride to the rescue here. The North Korean ammo shipments alone are sufficient to inflict at least 100,000 casualties if delivered under reasonable operational conditions. The army can stay in contact and be ground to powder or gradually retreat and preserve its strength for longer, but defeat is only a matter of time.
 
Specterx said:
My view is that the Rus-Chi-NK axis
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Sure, but not in smart-munitions. Perun on YT has a breakdown in one of his videos. Also a video on AtlanticCouncil.

Trump believes that DPRK, China and Russia are the Nuclear Triad.
 
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