2024 Swing States

K

kmgilroy89

I got the following 7:
AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI
Red Wave:
VA, ME, NH, MN

I thought TX could be moving like GA. Trump only won by 5 points in 2020 just like he only won by 5 in GA in 2016. However, Abbott won by 11 there showing it's still probably out of reach for Democrats in 2024. The only real chance I see there of being a blue wave is if Trump sabotages the whole thing and runs as an Independent. In that case, Democrats could win close to 40 states. Barring this, it's really hard for me to see Democrats winning FL, OH, or IA back if they run the known politicians. The states they've been gaining some ground in like AK, MT, and SC are still way too far out of reach.
 
kmgilroy89 said:
I got the following 7:
AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI
Red Wave:
VA, ME, NH, MN

I thought TX could be moving like GA. Trump only won by 5 points in 2020 just like he only won by 5 in GA in 2016. However, Abbott won by 11 there showing it's still probably out of reach for Democrats in 2024. The only real chance I see there of being a blue wave is if Trump sabotages the whole thing and runs as an Independent. In that case, Democrats could win close to 40 states. Barring this, it's really hard for me to see Democrats winning FL, OH, or IA back if they run the known politicians. The states they've been gaining some ground in like AK, MT, and SC are still way too far out of reach.
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The top seven for Dems look good.I don't see red wave in VA and MN.I know Youngkin won The Gov race but Gov races,especially in low turnout non presidential race years often have different results than presidential and senate races.Dems also didn't have the abortion issue in 2021.


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It doesn't matter anymore, uni-party politicians joined at the wallet.
True election results are way different from "the official version".
 
Tony Stark said:
The top seven for Dems look good.I don't see red wave in VA and MN.I know Youngkin won The Gov race but Gov races,especially in low turnout non presidential race years often have different results than presidential and senate races.Dems also didn't have the abortion issue in 2021.


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Glenn Youngkin could be the nominee. I think he, Noem, and DeSantis are possibly the 3 most acceptable alternatives to Trump's base. He basically won his election on CRT. A lot of it depends on the economy. Very good chance of a recession as we continue to fight inflation.
 
kmgilroy89 said:
Glenn Youngkin could be the nominee. I think he, Noem, and DeSantis are possibly the 3 most acceptable alternatives to Trump's base. He basically won his election on CRT. A lot of it depends on the economy. Very good chance of a recession as we continue to fight inflation.
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Youngkin won in an off year,not even midterm election.Youngkin didn't have to run after Roe was overturned.

The economy wont even matter in 2024imo.Abortion and keeping nuts like Noem, Trump and DeSantis out will be the top 2 issues.Im not even voting for Biden but I think he will win.
 
kmgilroy89 said:
I got the following 7:
AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI
Red Wave:
VA, ME, NH, MN

I thought TX could be moving like GA. Trump only won by 5 points in 2020 just like he only won by 5 in GA in 2016. However, Abbott won by 11 there showing it's still probably out of reach for Democrats in 2024. The only real chance I see there of being a blue wave is if Trump sabotages the whole thing and runs as an Independent. In that case, Democrats could win close to 40 states. Barring this, it's really hard for me to see Democrats winning FL, OH, or IA back if they run the known politicians. The states they've been gaining some ground in like AK, MT, and SC are still way too far out of reach.
More...


VA is a blue state....dont confuse the Governor which is won/lost based on local politics with the presidential voting patterns of the state. Last two presidential elections VA was clearly Blue. Congress elections were 7-4 Blue. Youngkin had weak opposition and ran on dog whistle issues that got people excited for local issues in an off year election.

2024 should follow the same path for presidential elections.

The only states that matter for GOP is WI, MI and PA....win those in addition to the already red states and they get the electoral college votes like trump did in 2016.
 
Probably too early for this considering the shit show we just watched in the House. Don’t underestimate congressional Republicans and Trump’s ability to sandbag 2024 like they did 2022.
 
El OchoCinco said:
VA is a blue state....dont confuse the Governor which is won/lost based on local politics with the presidential voting patterns of the state. Last two presidential elections VA was clearly Blue. Congress elections were 7-4 Blue. Youngkin had weak opposition and ran on dog whistle issues that got people excited for local issues in an off year election.

2024 should follow the same path for presidential elections.

The only states that matter for GOP is WI, MI and PA....win those in addition to the already red states and they get the electoral college votes like trump did in 2016.
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Indeed.Governors races are weird.MA and MD just had GOP Governors while LA and KY has Dem Governors. LA and KY voted for a president and congress to vote against Obamacare but for Dem Governors to expand Obamacare medicaid.Fucking idiots.
 
Overnight said:
Well, MA finally flipped it's lid and voted in a dem, Maura Healy, the AG. She hates guns, so that's a good thing I guess.
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I think MA has been anti gun for a long time since Kennedy got shot. The family lives and vacations there so I heard that they were always anti gun due to Kennedy influence...
 
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