2024 Stock Picks

Need a Uranium play.

Top pick: CCJ
Cameco Corp. ---> $43.62 (expensive, but the whole group is)
Obviously this one could drop if Uranium falls back out of favor.
 
ALT

When I entered after the phase 2b data just days ago, it was trading close to net cash even though the data seems to be as good as Novo's Wegovy.

Big pharma are hungry for a weight loss GLP-1 drug of their own. Novo has become the largest company in Europe because of their GLP-1.

ALT will most likely secure a partner before phase 3.

Big upside. Limited downside before phase 3 data.

ALT current market cap: USD 429 million
NVO current market cap: USD 452 billion (yes there is more to NVO than Wegovy)

ALT current price: 7.98

December 1, 2023:
"Altimmune price target raised to $25 from $16 at JMP Securities
JMP Securities raised the firm's price target on Altimmune to $25 from $16 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares.

Following the Phase 2b MOMENTUM data, the firm is now including obesity as a separate program in its Altimmune valuation. The shares are up 50% today but this still undervalues pemvidutide's opportunity that JMP now models at over $5B in peak sales between obesity and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm continues to recommend Altimmune shares, saying pemvidutide has a competitive profile."
Up another 8% today.
 
Another day, another 5% jump on ALT.

One thing about Altimmune though that all these folks chasing it might not be aware of... they have a shelf-registration from back in February, that still has $135MM of potential dilution left.

Now these guys have zero revenue, and about $150MM cash left. They burned thru about $60MM last quarter, so one has to think, they are gonna start selling into this strength. Will it matter? Who knows. Everyone wants a piece of this GLP-1 game.

I read their week 48 trial results. 50% of the participants had nausea. That seems to be consistent with the other players though. PFE cancelled their 2X daily pill, I think the nausea on that one was 75%. They have a 1X daily in the works that is apparently better however, so they say.
 
As an interesting aside, when they filed that registration for the $150MM worth of additional shares back in February, the stock was right at this level. ---> $11.98.

********************************

Our common stock is listed on The Nasdaq Global Select Market under the symbol “ALT.” On February 24, 2023, the closing price for our common stock, as reported on The Nasdaq Global Select Market, was $11.98 per share. Our principal executive office is located at 910 Clopper Road, Suite 201S, Gaithersburg, Maryland 20878.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326190/000132619023000013/tmb-20230228xs3asr.htm
 
Another day, another 5% jump on ALT.

One thing about Altimmune though that all these folks chasing it might not be aware of... they have a shelf-registration from back in February, that still has $135MM of potential dilution left.

Now these guys have zero revenue, and about $150MM cash left. They burned thru about $60MM last quarter, so one has to think, they are gonna start selling into this strength. Will it matter? Who knows. Everyone wants a piece of this GLP-1 game.

I read their week 48 trial results. 50% of the participants had nausea. That seems to be consistent with the other players though. PFE cancelled their 2X daily pill, I think the nausea on that one was 75%. They have a 1X daily in the works that is apparently better however, so they say.
That would be negative. However, most likely they will seek a licensing partner before phase 3.
 
That would be negative. However, most likely they will seek a licensing partner before phase 3.
Yeah the CEO actually made a press release to the effect of "Hey... we're here... anyone wanna buy us?" :D

I thought hmmm... that sounds a little unprofessional. But whadda I know.
 
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