2022 Mid-term election is over----Dems just don't realize it yet

Two weeks to go and of course the momentum is with the party out of power. Americans like split government. Tis the way. Republicans are over reading this as an indictment of democrats and democrats are just in denial.

My best guess right now…

House - 230 R
Senate - 52 R (this should be much higher)
 
UsualName said:
Two weeks to go and of course the momentum is with the party out of power. Americans like split government.
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Heh, nice attempt at clean-up on Aisle 6.

Actually the real story is that the dems had the momentum just a couple/few weeks ago and now they have lost it. Did Americans just learn to like split power in the last month? I don't think so.

And yes, the Senate is back to looking shaky for the dems even though I projected a dem victory just a week or two ago. I tried the "dems have shit for candidates in states X,Y,Z but there are a lot of dems in those states and they will vote dem" routine. But things have gone downhill so I put it at toss-up.

Your ilk peaked too early with your various scams such as the Maralago raid. And dem leadership and you are 100% sticking to the "the economy is fine" routine" and "the dems are not for defund the police routine." Womp!!! That dog don't hunt. People see through that.
 
TreeFrogTrader said:
Heh, nice attempt at clean-up on Aisle 6.

Actually the real story is that the dems had the momentum just a couple/few weeks ago and now they have lost it. Did Americans just learn to like split power in the last month? I don't think so.

And yes, the Senate is back to looking shaky for the dems even though I projected a dem victory just a week or two ago. I tried the "dems have shit for candidates in states X,Y,Z but there are a lot of dems in those states and they will vote dem" routine. But things have gone downhill so I put it at toss-up.

Your ilk peaked too early with your various scams such as the Maralago raid. And dem leadership and you are 100% sticking to the "the economy is fine" routine" and "the dems are not for defund the police routine." Womp!!! That dog don't hunt. People see through that.
More...

No. I have been very consistent on this. It takes a lot for the president’s party to retain the house and the senate in off year elections.

Political: Biden doesn’t look like he will get blown out the way Obama did though or Trump so that will be to his credit - if you want to get “political.” But no Biden is not going to be walking on water and carrying the Dems to back to back majorities. On the other hand I give him credit for not ducking and hiding. He might get lost in some trees or fall asleep during a news interview but he’s at least trying.

I’m not giving the republicans runaway numbers this election because they actually suck as a party and will ultimately hurt the country, but they are going to win off of muscle memory. The truth is the republicans should be winning more seats than they are going to because the cycle is actually so favorable for them. Or at least it was before they became the MAGA party. Talk about a dog not hunting.
 
UsualName said:
Biden doesn’t look like he will get blown out the way Obama did though or Trump so that will be to his credit - if you want to get “political.”
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One of the things I have said a couple times before long ago - and admittedly it is not all that important but nevertheless true- is that when midterms come Biden might avoid a full blowout (at least when compared to a couple other presidents) because he lost a huge number of seats on the way in when he was elected. Not sure where we ended out after all the recounts etc but I think it was about 12. So the herd got thinned quite a bit just on the way in, versus a big lovefest and then a major falling out as some presidents experience. So, I am not so sure about what is "to Biden's credit." He/the dems just took it up the bo-bo a little earlier than some of the other major mid-term losers.

If the herd had not been thinned out on the way in then that would be more cannon fodder at midterm and it would be YUGE when added to the others.
 
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TreeFrogTrader said:
One of the things I have said a couple times before long ago - and admittedly it is not all that important but nevertheless true- is that when midterms come Biden might avoid a full blowout (at least when compared to a couple other presidents) because he lost a huge number of seats on the way in when he was elected. Not sure where we ended out after all the recounts etc but I think it was about 12. So the herd got thinned quite a bit just on the way in, versus a big lovefest and then a major falling out as some presidents experience. So, I am not so sure about what is "to Biden's credit." He/the dems just took it up the bo-bo a little earlier than some of the other major mid-term losers.

If the herd had not been thinned out on the way in then that would be more cannon fodder at midterm and it would be YUGE when added to the others.
More...

It’s not an unimportant point but it also doesn’t speak to the Republicans having such low majority prospects. Biden unseated a sitting president that really doesn’t happen too often so his tailwinds were going to be weak anyway.
 
UsualName said:
Two weeks to go and of course the momentum is with the party out of power. Americans like split government. Tis the way. Republicans are over reading this as an indictment of democrats and democrats are just in denial.

My best guess right now…

House - 230 R
Senate - 52 R (this should be much higher)
More...
Nice try. ----Awful analysis.
 
Another crack in the Dem facade--

upload_2022-10-24_21-0-13.png
 
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