The circle is basically a parabolic upside move caused by an asset bubble. The line is basically where we could go.
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2022/2021 Tech Bubble Thread
- Thread starter TazTheLaz
- Start date
I only speak English, not TAThe circle is basically a parabolic upside move caused by an asset bubble.View attachment 276007
How?The line is basically where we could go.
Earnings have flatlined for the most part. Stock pickers market upcoming.
The govt stopped printing stimulus checks...well, they still do in other forms, but they are no longer sending out trillions in free money for people who make up to 150k per year. I think the threshold on the child tax care credit was something ridiculous like over 400k per year. A lot of that money was spent so it went right into earnings.
We didnt have the fed saying they may raise rates 3-4 times in 2016. We didnt have the fed saying inflation is a persistent problem in 2016. Consumers didnt complain about inflation in 2016 but they certainly are now. We also didnt have a bunch of over valued tech stocks either.
Stocks are getting re priced based on expected interest rates and also the expectation that the economy is starting to slow. I do see more downside and as I said last week, eventually they bring them all down, including “ value stocks”.
We havent even seen margin calls and fund redemptions yet. The fed created an asset bubble and its popping. Its that simple and after stocks fall, real estate will get hit albeit not as bad as 2008.
Just like in 2009, these kind of posts will look rather silly down the road. Go back to 2016 the posters here certainly called them overvalued IT stocks. Numerous interest rate hikes started very late 2015 and took rates from 0% to I think 2.5%.
Yes, but you are missing the elephant in the room. Asset prices are very overvalued, much more than in 2016.
Source:
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
No they are not by any standard measure. Shiller P/E is a joke people posted that shit back in 2009/2010 as well.
No they are not by any standard measure. Shiller P/E is a joke people posted that shit back in 2009/2010 as well.
> A joke
Shiller PE would have predicted the dotcom bubble if it had existed back then, not only that, but also the great depression.
“ How”. Are you camanche Indian ?I only speak English, not TA
How?
> A joke
Shiller PE would have predicted the dotcom bubble if it had existed back then, not only that, but also the great depression.
Come on now Shiller's theories got destroyed after 2009. Do I need to fish out the posts on here ? I wonder how many traders like you got totally destroyed by this nonsense from 2009-2019. Even if you held onto your money the long opportunities missed were massive. Seriously, I addressed some of this back then and given time almost everything I said played out. So we get the "this time is different" crowd now and the same overly confident promises of blood in the street.
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Come on now, Shiller's theories got destroyed after 2009. Do I need to fish out the posts on here ? I wonder how many traders like you got totally destroyed by this nonsense from 2009-2019. Even if you held onto your money, the long opportunities missed were massive,
Seriously, I addressed some of this back then and given time almost everything I said played out. So we get the 'this time is different" crowd now and the same overly confident promises of blood in the street.
CAPE was only at alarming levels in mid-late 2021. Long opportunities in 2020 would still have been abundant.
I don't base most of my bearish sentiment on the CAPE, but rather there has been a lot of irrational exuberance in 2020 and 2021, and it seems like it had gone too far. From Rivian, a company valued like GM, but with no sales, or maybe Peloton, A LITERAL TREADMILL COMPANY valued at $47 billion at its peak. When you see these things, you start to doubt the rationality of the market. I haven't heard of any speculative growth rallies that haven't ended with a crash, correction, or decline.