2020 Presidential Election - I placed $100 on the Republican Party for .....

You have to realize Democrats vastly outnumber Republicans in terms of registered voters. It's not exactly surprising Republicans have struggled to win the popular vote. It's a simple game of numbers. However, at the state level where electors decide where the state's vote goes Republicans are often the ones who turn out the most with exception of California, New York, and a handful of other Democrat controlled states (though as of right now things are getting dicey in both Republican and Democrat controlled states).

This seems contradictory until you realize the populations of democrat strongholds such as California and New York have an order of magnitude more people in them. This skews the national popular vote in favor of Democrats. But with, as far as I know, every state implementing winner-takes-all elector voting the states with an even, or more, amount of Republicans swing the election in favor of the Republican candidate. This has happened repeatedly throughout history and is where the Democrat's froth and gnash teeth about "illegitimate" elections and awarding California in particular several more electoral votes due to the population size.

In 2016 Democrats whined about winning the popular vote and losing the election. Several people called for a popular vote style of election but that would never work. Populations are heavily skewed in favor of the coastal Democrat strongholds and so they'd be guaranteed a monarchy with near certainty in that case. It is already difficult to justify voting against the dominant party in your state because in places with heavy one party skew your vote typically won't matter enough to change anything. Having a popular vote style national election would simply scale this to a national level and the southwest, midwest and bible belt may as well not even participate.

One idea might be re-evaluate every state and reissue them electoral votes according to senators. Necessarily this means increasing the number of senators in congress but that might not be such a bad thing considering there's currently no practical way the current batch of senators could ever even fathom of representing even an infinitesimally small amount of their constituents. Though caution must be used here as well - Texas, California, Florida, New York, and Pennsylvania could have disproportionate amounts of influence over congress in this case.


Increasing the senate by population makes no sense.

Each state gets its #of Congress + #of senators as its count in the electoral college. Dc gets three (like it was a tiny state).

Republicans win more states, democrats win bigger states.

the point is to balance population density against area density so that a minority rural population still can have a say. In the case of 2016, the outcome was a tyranny of the minority - but the system is fundamentally good for the long term stability of the national.
 
Question: Is there an arbitrage opportunity?


The Canadian Lotto's have the odds of the Republican Party winning the Popular Vote at 5.50. Which I placed a $100 bet when the odds where 4.75. The Democratic Part odds are 1.15.

I am looking for any US State lotto that has the odds on the Democratic Party winning the Popular Vote above 2.00. I would then also place a $100 bet on the Democratic Party winning the Popular Vote.

$200 total on both parties - with a minimum payout of $200+, maximum $475.
 
Question: Is there an arbitrage opportunity?


The Canadian Lotto's have the odds of the Republican Party winning the Popular Vote at 5.50. Which I placed a $100 bet when the odds where 4.75. The Democratic Part odds are 1.15.

I am looking for any US State lotto that has the odds on the Democratic Party winning the Popular Vote above 2.00. I would then also place a $100 bet on the Democratic Party winning the Popular Vote.

$200 total on both parties - with a minimum payout of $200+, maximum $475.

US state lotteries have scratch tickets and jackpot drawings like Mega Millions and Powerball. For stuff like what you want, you'd prolly need to google some Las Vegas bookies.
 
I got 3.0 odds to back Trump on Betfair.

Just bet 500 GBP (650 USD) backing Trump.

Will triple my money if trump wins, tax free, although the exchange will take 5% commission of my profits.

This is just an opening scale in, looking to go to 2000 GBP (2600USD) by tuesday. Hopefully will get even better odds over the next few days. If the odds become less favourable i might not bet that much
 
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Says the cuckold loser Canadian who is OBSESSED with United States politics.
You are so pathetic

The US is extremely unpopular right now all over the globe. The world has no confidence in the judgement of the American public; too many dumb asses like you who never got a decent education. If you elect a psychopath like Trump of course the world takes notice. You certainly talk a "brave" game behind a keyboard but in person I'd shut you up rather quickly. Go fuck yourself.
 
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The US is extremely unpopular right now all over the globe. The world has no confidence in the judgement of the American public; too many dumb asses like you who never got a decent education. If you elect a psychopath like Trump of course the world takes notice. You certainly talk a "brave" game behind a keyboard but in person I'd shut you up rather quickly. Go fuck yourself.

No, the US isn't unpopular. Its the number one place in the world people want to move to. Canada is a distant 2nd followed closely by Germany.
 
Increasing the senate by population makes no sense.

Each state gets its #of Congress + #of senators as its count in the electoral college. Dc gets three (like it was a tiny state).

Republicans win more states, democrats win bigger states.

the point is to balance population density against area density so that a minority rural population still can have a say. In the case of 2016, the outcome was a tyranny of the minority - but the system is fundamentally good for the long term stability of the national.

>Increasing the senate by population makes no sense.

Agreed. The Senate was created specifically to prohibit this (the Connecticut Compromise). In the Senate, each state gets equal representation, no matter it's population, unlike in the House of Representatives.
 
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The US is extremely unpopular right now all over the globe. The world has no confidence in the judgement of the American public; too many dumb asses like you who never got a decent education. If you elect a psychopath like Trump of course the world takes notice. You certainly talk a "brave" game behind a keyboard but in person I'd shut you up rather quickly. Go fuck yourself.
Laughable
 
No, the US isn't unpopular. Its the number one place in the world people want to move to. Canada is a distant 2nd followed closely by Germany.
The U.S. is so awful, yet Nine_Enders own daughter left Canada to come work in the states.
The guy is a babbling fool
 
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