2020 Election Results Option Strangle - SPY - Wed or Fri Expiry?

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I am thinking of buying a 1-strike OTM SPY strangle (calls and puts) on Tuesday, November 3 - the day of the US election.

  • I prefer the Wednesday Nov 04 options - but I am concerned about any delay in the results.
  • So I might go with the Friday Nov 06 options. If I go with the Friday options then I most likely will trade the QQQ options instead.

Any thoughts on this trade?
 
If the results get delayed, your strangle should appreciate in value. Options are expensive right now. I prefer to cut risk and wait for an outcome. Feels too much like a gamble otherwise.
 
Could be some good movement, but iv is likely to be elevated when you buy, then drop like a rock soon after. Maybe try a long just otm put on uvxy. Then put in a gtc sell set to when you have a double. Might have to roll if it doesn't go anywhere in a couple weeks.
 
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May pop back up, but "should" drop soon. :D

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if anything I'd do this on the ES futures so at least you can close it overnight. the risk premium may be gone by cash open but that's anyone's guess
 
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