Be my guest at the crow-eating show
2020 Could See the End Of Amazon as We Know It: NYU Prof.
- Thread starter kmiklas
- Start date
Be my guest at the crow-eating show
Nobody eats crow from making claims on an internet forum.
Amazon is NOT doubling in the next three years. Its already in a huge bubble right now. Nothing grows for ever. Barrier to competitive entry isn't that high, and margins are razor-thin. It will take a long time for earnings to grow enough to match the current valuation.
(Of course you could argue I would have said that 3 years ago
Since AMZN just blasted off to a new high, here I am sweating over my assertion (July 28th). So AMZN gets 52cents vs 2cents expected, and we are up $130. Well, four quarters - that makes $2.00, and a PE of 550. At some point the market will realize this is a megacap, and the PE matters.
So yes, I am re-affirming my assertion. AMZN was 1020 on July 28th - It will NOT close above 2040 anytime before Jul 28th 2020.
Crow tastes good with a subtle bouillabaisse. No worries, not all of us can make a good call. We gots 2 3/4 years left for this challenge to play out.
A P/E ratio is singularly terrible at valuing AMZN. A 10% higher revenue would be a 10-fold increase in earnings, and bring the ratio into high 30s or low 40s. So the missing price of the puzzle is if it's likely they can show substantial revenue increases and/or modest cost decreases.
Yeah right! A 10% increase in revenue without accompanying increase in costs! The margins are so tight, and the competition so real I don't see such room. If they think squeezing out JCP, TGT, WMT etc means they will have monopoly to increase price, they should think again - it won't happen.
I said 10% higher, not increase. And I'm not saying it's appropriately valued or not. Just offering perspective.
AMZN is going to rock the box, just like MSFT did 25 years ago. Amazon is one of the newest MSFTs. No worries though, we're all long Amazon yes? Hehehe!
Of course, it'll double, as they'll create Amazereum and Bezocoin, which alone is good for, a few trillion, as it'll be a global currency wiping out banks as we know it. Go to, the Amazonian Pharmacy, pay in Bezocoin. Go to Amazonian City Hall to pay for your parking ticket given by your Amazo Cop...pay in Amazereum!lol All joking aside I don't see it doubling as law of large numbers takes hold, government would break it up before then.