2019: The Year the Market Broke and the Fed Rescued the Everything Bubble

[murray t turtle]

This is the best thread I read in a while.
I feel like you all, that we are in the midst of a market meltup. It will correct in the pre and election phase and Iran and China will be a sword of Damucles above all but compared to Brexit fear plus China fear 2018 its all sunshine.

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May correct in may or SEPT; sure has in the past.Panic sellers may have sold on Iran NeWs, LOL panic sellers neVer win. They could not even keep the oil market up which they sUre have tried to do LOL. I'm not a market maker, but one said ''you Will probably get the news before me '' He has better things to watch than the news................................................................,

 

[Overnight]

Hell this is the best thread I read in a while.
I feel like you all, that we are in the midst of a market meltup. It will correct in the pre and election phase and Iran and China will be a sword of Damucles above all but compared to Brexit fear plus China fear 2018 its all sunshine.

This year is going to suck, especially as we near November. If a Dem wins, we'll have a lot of chop and then down. If Trump wins, late 2022 will be the start of the downturn into hell, sharply.

 

[piezoe]

Imo vague confusion / concern or theories about how the government is controlling us don't add PnL dollars to the bottom line. We haven't seen anything extremely crazy yet to warrant concern. Rolling 20y market returns are pretty average. Debt to GDP isn't out of control. Things could get a lot weirder before the trend changes. I recall reading the forward yield on the indicies got under the short rate in the tech bubble? We aren't anywhere near that yet.

Diversification is the best remedy for this brand of uncertainty. Certain asset classes can definitely plateau for a while and get squeezed in the short term but if you maintain exposure to a variety of markets and don't over-leverage; 90% chance you'll be fine over a 1-2 decade time horizon and longer.

How nice it is to read an occasional post that seems to have come from a observer on planet Earth.

How bizarre it is to read so many posts where people think there is something wrong about the government creating money, as if there is another better source?; ditto the strange posts from those who don't realize that if the government did not run deficits there would be no money left in the private sector to carry out commerce. Our main concern should be stability of the money, i.e., price inflation. Or in other words, whether the amount of money available for commerce is in balance with the goods and services one can buy with it; should we say "productivity?" Of course there are also social concerns having to do with where he money resides. And that too affects commerce. Many posters here, it appears, are concerned not about these things but instead about the economy on some imaginary planet where government finances are no different from their own finances.