Meat pie and a Carlton Draught ftw
2018 P/L year to date +40%
- Thread starter VolAlgo1
- Start date
Meat pie and a Carlton Draught ftw
I drink better beer than that.. but not during a trading day... that makes me sleepy during arvo trading
I do like me a meat pie tho!
Those things are like crack. Slow-braised steak and aged cheddar, fuggedaboutit
1) Please refer Buffet's site at http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2017ltr.pdf if you believe it is true.
It says annual compounded return of 20.9% from 1965 to 2017 (roughly 52 years)
Note that in some years he could NOT follow SnP500. (cannot outperform index)
I don't believe Buffet's son can keep this record for another 50 years.
2) 1.2^400 = 4.704337e+031 = 4.7*10^31
However there is a case who kept roughly 6% for 400 years. Probably Rothschild's family, if I heard correctly, which showed
1.06^400 = 13253973744 times. And Catholic headquarter.
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Firstly, that's more like a buy and hold... which means, when you get bigger and bigger you will not outperform SP500 (by much)... as you can clearly see in the data... his returns are moving towards SP500.
This is BRK's outperformance to SP500:
Since it's more buy hold, so if you trade very actively you can't swing too large amounts. So you have to adapt from a multiple times a day algorithm to a more conservative buy hold... and you would have to put more eggs in the basket, therefore you would be diversifying. Which should normally be a good thing, but that also means you will approach a more market conform return... hence why his returns are sliding towards 0 outperform.
Secondly, he started out with a lot less... so he had no issues with scalability at that time, or any time before he got bigger. Start of BRK was with 2.5mln? Still decent amount... But again, this contributes to him approaching zero in outperformance.
Again.. that's market conform on the long term... long term buy hold SP500 is similar... that's not active swing trading in VIX related derivatives.
Again, @jk90029, let me point out that this was your post that doesn't make any sense bc of scalability issues.. not a buy and hold of the Rothschilds or Warren Buffet...
"Good, If you have record of annual compounded 80% for last three years, and if you are confident the anuual percentage long time (for example 50 years).
Then you current asset is expected to grow 1.8^50 = 5802635025810 times after 50 years.
If you have saving of 100K (for example) in current seed, then you shall be the most rich man in the world 50 years later.
Even if you have only 10K in seed, then same is true."
"Good, If you have record of annual compounded 80% for last three years, and if you are confident the anuual percentage long time (for example 50 years).
Then you current asset is expected to grow 1.8^50 = 5802635025810 times after 50 years.
If you have saving of 100K (for example) in current seed, then you shall be the most rich man in the world 50 years later.
Even if you have only 10K in seed, then same is true."
Quite possibly, my issue is out of OP's scalability, which I do NOT understand yet.
Sorry for that if so.