2018 MidTerm Trends

gwb-trading said:
You don't seem to understand how elections work. A Democratic district that has been Democratic for decades but went Republican in 2016 -- going back Democratic in a special election is hardly a trend.... in fact it is expected.
More...

Again, who said a SINGLE data point is a trend? Also, you again IGNORED the MARGIN of victory which I tried carefully to explain.


gwb-trading said:
The 2016 election of Trump should not be used as a reference point for special elections --- when trying to compare that Trump won by + 37 in a district but now the Republican only won by +3 (let's suppose) in a special election in a district that has been held by a Democrat for decades. The reality is that the Republican won by +3 in a district that has been Democrat +6 in the past 5 elections for the seat (but they don't mention this). They just want to provide the illusion that the district tilted 34 points to the left by going +37 in 2016 (for Trump) to only +3 in a special election -- while ignoring a national election is very different than a state election.
More...

Ugh, the Kentucky seat went to the Democrat by 37+ points, you are conveniently ignoring that fact. Margins matter.

Plus you are ignoring ALL the other previous results posted in this thread, 37+ seats have been flipped and is a sign of things to come.
 
exGOPer said:
Again, who said a SINGLE data point is a trend? Also, you again IGNORED the MARGIN of victory which I tried carefully to explain.




Ugh, the Kentucky seat went to the Democrat by 37+ points, you are conveniently ignoring that fact. Margins matter.

Plus you are ignoring ALL the other previous results posted in this thread, 37+ seats have been flipped and is a sign of things to come.
More...

So lets take a look at the Kentucky race... for many years now the state seat in the district was won by a margin of +30 points Democratic or greater. In 2016 the state seat was won by 150 votes in a close race which was +1 Republican (50.4-49.6). Belcher won this special election race by (68-32).

Yet the media is focused that Trump won the district by 49 points in 2016 (ignoring the state seat race was merely +1 Republican) The Democratic press focuses on a +45 point improvement compared to Trump /Hillary. Yet they ignore that the Belcher race results actually trail her previous results in the district and the results of the previous state seat results in the district won by Democrats.

Yes -- Margins Matter -- you have to compare similar margins in races for the same government position. For example, Obama won many counties in North Carolina in 2008 which also elected Republican state legislators by significant margins.

Last night, Democrats flipped a Kentucky state legislature seat in a district Trump won by 49 points
Democrat Linda Belcher regains her old seat.
https://www.vox.com/2018/2/20/17034262/kentucky-special-election-linda-belcher
 
gwb-trading said:
So lets take a look at the Kentucky race... for many years now the state seat in the district was won by a margin of +30 points Democratic or greater. In 2016 the state seat was won by 150 votes in a close race which was +1 Republican (50.4-49.6). Belcher won this special election race by (68-32).

Yet the media is focused that Trump won the district by 49 points in 2016 (ignoring the state seat race was merely +1 Republican) The Democratic press focuses on a +45 point improvement compared to Trump /Hillary. Yet they ignore that the Belcher race results actually trail her previous results in the district and the results of the previous state seat results in the district won by Democrats.

Yes -- Margins Matter -- you have to compare similar margins in races for the same government position. For example, Obama won many counties in North Carolina in 2008 which also elected Republican state legislators by significant margins.

Last night, Democrats flipped a Kentucky state legislature seat in a district Trump won by 49 points
Democrat Linda Belcher regains her old seat.
https://www.vox.com/2018/2/20/17034262/kentucky-special-election-linda-belcher
More...

So the fact that Trump won the district should be ignored for your victimhood to be abated?
 
exGOPer said:
So the fact that Trump won the district should be ignored for your victimhood to be abated?
More...

In terms of predicting election trends -- the results of an election seat should be compared to the previous elections for the same seat. Comparing the margins in the state seat race to the results for the Presidential contest have very little meaning. In fact doing so is simply creating an illusive fantasy which is not real.

State seat races should be compared to previous races for the same seat to establish a trend. Same with Congressional races.
 
gwb-trading said:
In terms of predicting election trends -- the results of an election seat should be compared to the previous elections for the same seat. Comparing the margins in the state seat race to the results for the Presidential contest have very little meaning. In fact doing so is simply creating an illusive fantasy which is not real.

State seat races should be compared to previous races for the same seat to establish a trend. Same with Congressional races.
More...

But they are being compared, a seat that Democrats won by 20 points is now being won back by 37+ points, is that not worth reporting on especially considering there were so many Trump supporters in the very same place.
 
exGOPer said:
But they are being compared, a seat that Democrats won by 20 points is now being won back by 37+ points, is that not worth reporting on especially considering there were so many Trump supporters in the very same place.
More...

Actually all the Democratic margins on this seat in previous elections were larger than the current election -- including ones with the same candidate.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top