2016: From 5R to up

TimBox75

TimBox75

This is my day trading journal for the year 2016. Currently I trade US30 index at FXCM UK broker. I will try to post weekly results and maybe some analysis and thoughts. I trade from European time zones (sorry for my English). I have a full time job as a computer programmer so I mainly trade during office hours. My current FXCM account size is small but I do have some plans to deposit more if I can continue profitable trading. I have been trading Forex since 2005 and some stocks before that.

Why to do this? I do keep detailed personal trading journal every day and my trading is currently profitable but I know there will be though times ahead and then some Elite Traders help would be nice. And over the years I have read lots of good ideas and tips from ET so why not to try to give something back (hope I have something to give).

Thank you for reading this and have a good trading day
 
Because this thread should cover year 2016 I will post previous two weeks results here too. I didn't trade first two weeks of the year because of my South African vacation (much needed sunshine) so the week 3 was my first trading week for this year.

I use the R symbol for calculate my performance. Those who are not familiar with this concept Google "van tharp risk and r-multiples".


Weekly update: Week 3/2016
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Excelent week, lots of volatility
Result: +7.2R
Number of trades: 15
Number of profitable trades: 6

As said, I day trade US30 index mainly by using a 5 minutes chart. I don't think I will give out all the details of my strategy, but on the other hand, there is nothing special about it. Not much indicators, support and resistance levels, subjective criteria ("I have a feeling") and a quite strict money and risk management. I use Heiken-Ashi candlesticks to make it easier to see the trend (imo).

Here is one example trade from the week. I selected one of the profitable trades to give a positive start for this thread :)

et2.PNG


This trade made +3.5R so it means it made 3.5 times of the initial risk. Maximum loss (risk) per trade is -1R (unless you move your stop loss level further away from the initial level, which I never do).

Basically this means that my high level trading strategy is:

1) Determine limit order and stop loss levels
2) Calculate lot size per order
3) Create limit orders
2) If order is hit, follow the position and move stop loss level closer and closer to the price until the stop loss level is hit and the position is closed
 
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Weekly Update: Week 4/2016
==========================================
Weekly Result: -1.9R
Yearly Result: +5.2R
Number of trades: 19
Number of profitable trades: 10

At Thursday I saw nasty -2.4R loss and other days had no action for my trading style. I did not trade consistently through the day and therefore missed those profitable trades.

So this is the current situation when writing this. I'm up 5R (hence the name of the thread) and trying to make it bigger.
 
Weekly Update: Week 5/2016
==========================================
Weekly Result: -0,8R
Yearly Result: +4.4R
Number of trades: 18
Number of profitable trades: 6

Whipsawing market and two stupid errors at Friday. Following image views the situation today.

et.PNG


There were four (!) test to that very same 16235 level. The spread is usually between 1 to 3 pips so I think the ask price must have hit my orders at 16237. Bid price is used to draw the chart. This is so unusual event (at least for my trading) that I can not believe it happened two times at the same day. Without these positions (results: -1R and -1R) weekly result would have been positive.

I see two ways to avoid this in the future:

1) Increase margin to 3 or 4 pips
2) Buy manually when price breaks out

Both options have pros and cons. Do any Elite Trader here have ideas or experiences about this?
 
Weekly Update: Week 6/2016
==========================================
Weekly Result: 3.7R
Yearly Result: +8.1R
Number of trades: 11
Number of profitable trades: 7

Very nice week. No exceptional wins or loss streak but steady growth. Volatility seemed to be quite same than the last week. Here is one losing trade from last Monday:

et11.PNG


This gave full loss of -1R. I was looking for a breakout downside but that rarely happens on Mondays. Not very nice start for the week.
 
Weekly Update: Week 7/2016
==========================================
Weekly Result: -2.2R
Yearly Result: +5.9R
Number of trades: 23
Number of profitable trades: 9

Whipsawing market and too many trades.
 
Weekly Update: Week 8/2016
==========================================
Weekly Result: +1.1R
Yearly Result: +7.0R
Number of trades: 12
Number of profitable trades: 7

Kind of quiet week except Wednesday that made my week.
 
Weekly Update: Week 9/2016
==========================================
Weekly Result: +3.9R
Yearly Result: +10.9R
Number of trades: 10
Number of profitable trades: 9

Good week, zero losing days. And less is more - only ten trades. I mark zero results as profitable trades too, and there were two of those this week.. but still. I also tried to listen my gut more with thoughts like "I think it could go up from here so I buy long". I hope I start to get a grasp of this US30 (Dow Jones, Dow 30, DJIA, Wall Street Index or what ever the name is). It really feels different than currencies I used to trade when there still were enough volatility. But I like this index, it has been good for me so far. Maybe that is because of the current high volatility ..

v2.PNG



If I understood this correctly, current volatility is in range from 15 to 25. And it is a good range comparing to previous years. I wonder what will happen when volatility decreases to range like from 5 to 15. Then it might be time to change the instrument again..
 
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Weekly Update: Week 10/2016
==========================================
Weekly Result: -2.4R
Yearly Result: +9.2R
Number of trades: 21
Number of profitable trades: 8

Eight weeks of trading done and totally 130 trades. Following chart views the cumulative results so far:

c1.png


Not so surprisingly the balance chart looks similar with about 100 % profit in two months, but I don't think this profit value is meaningful because of small sample size. Currently I trade with 5 % risk per trade and maximum draw-down has been acceptable even in these turbulent times.

So, looking good but I'm still not confident with my own trading. Occasionally I still do some stupid moves like martingale myself out of a bad situation. So far it has worked but it is not viable technique in the long run. I will try to remind myself every day about these bad habits, maybe it will help in the actual trading situation in the future.
 
Weekly Update: Week 11/2016
==========================================
Weekly Result: -5.0R
Yearly Result: +4.3R
Number of trades: 13
Number of profitable trades: 1

Hard hard week. Many false breakouts and couple trader's errors. I'm thinking to drop my position size to three per cent per trade.
 
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