2015 market performance

V

viktor_k67

It is not like 2007 and it is not like 2001. At this point of time it is more like 2011.

Yet, it is still not 2011. In 2011 the bad market performance was caused by a deep correction. In 2015 the bat market performance was the result of 1-year side-way range trend on the major market indexes.

2015marketperformance.png

Source: Market performance
 
viktor_k67 said:
It is not like 2007 and it is not like 2001. At this point of time it is more like 2011.

Yet, it is still not 2011. In 2011 the bad market performance was caused by a deep correction. In 2015 the bat market performance was the result of 1-year side-way range trend on the major market indexes.
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Really? 2015 SPX looks at lot like 2011 SPX right down to the measly return. The sell off this year wasn't as bad but it was just as steep, in the same month even.
 
But to make money we ought to anticipate future developments and take a stand or not (no loss), it will never look the same, if correction is allowed to progress, then inevitably it would start altering fundamentals and then we will definitely see some black swans, which would further drive the correction. Technically, to my eyes, markets look ready to continue correcting, where it would lead to depends on our governments/CBs.
 
romik said:
But to make money we ought to anticipate future developments and take a stand or not (no loss), it will never look the same, if correction is allowed to progress, then inevitably it would start altering fundamentals and then we will definitely see some black swans, which would further drive the correction. Technically, to my eyes, markets look ready to continue correcting, where it would lead to depends on our governments/CBs.
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Reflexivity.
 
viktor_k67 said:
It is not like 2007 and it is not like 2001. At this point of time it is more like 2011.

Yet, it is still not 2011. In 2011 the bad market performance was caused by a deep correction. In 2015 the bat market performance was the result of 1-year side-way range trend on the major market indexes.

2015marketperformance.png

Source: Market performance
More...
These returns do not seem to include dividends.
 
Slightly different metric, but let's look at how far stocks are from highs.

S&P 500 -- 9.8% from highs

S&P 1500 --- 26.9% from highs

large cap stocks in S&P 1500 -- 22.6% from highs
mid cap stocks in S&P 1500 --- 26.5% from highs
small cap stocks in S&P 1500 --- 30.7% from highs

Kind of looks like a bear mkt, eh?

It's tempting to think that the above numbers are all a result of FANG holding up the S&P 500 and energy and materials doing all the damage. That would be half right. FANG is holding up the S&P 500, but there's much more damage under the hood than energy and materials.
8 of 10 mkt sectors are down more than 20% from highs. Only staples and utilities are down less than 20%. Staples down 18.5% and util down 14.3%.

The damage is wide spread.
 
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