2014: The Battle for Survival

neke said:
Long Period Update 07/05/2021 - 09/31/2022
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Well, this is not a quarter, or even a year. However, having gone down deep below the poverty line and coming back above, now is the time to make an update. As stated then the losses continued after the update for the period ended 7/5/2021, losing 71K from then till 11/17/2021 when the account bottomed at about 38K. As you could imagine that was a period of deep desperation to make the money back. The effect was further losses that brought my account balance to below 38K, just a tad above what was needed to maintain my pattern day-trading ability. I just couldn't conceive of being deprived of ability to trade (no shorts, no margin, no options, 3 day to clear). The last time I was in that position was early 2005. I might be forced to pack up and close. And yes, I thought of doing just that nevertheless - and I had basically written off the remaining balance on that account in my mind.

A period of reflection followed, and further automation of any profitable idea I had. The intent was to find how profitable I would be if I looked at the long term, and not get concerned about daily P/L. Is it 20% a year, 50%? In my mind I knew I had the ability to do that. So yes, over time I got detached from the daily performance and settled that a recovery is going to take years. The important thing was to establish there was still the edge and keep plugging along. Still a continuous battle to get that detachment.

Below is summary of the performance over this period, broken down between the first part (the implosion), and the second part (the recovery). Of course performance has been boosted by the return of volatility. Performance should be higher when that happens, but I believe I have enough diversification to be profitable as well when volatility is low - what hurt performance before was not strategy but lack of disciplined execution. Now I think I am looking at the bigger picture. Let a trade or day's P/L be just that - one day out of hundreds or thousands of trades/days to come.

Code: 
Implosion (07/05/2021 - 11/17/2021)

Opening Balance:                     109,100
Net loss for period                  (71,322)
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance:                          37,778

Recovery Phase (11/17/21 - 09/30/2022)

Opening Balance:                      37,778
Net gain for period                   60,494
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Net Balance:                          98,272

Year-To-Date (1/1/2022 - 9/30/2022)

Opening Balance:                      55,959
Net gain for period                   42,313 (Up 75%)
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Net Balance:                          98,272

The chart of account balance over the period is given in the diagram attached. It is clear from the charts there were a couple of days that accounted for the big dive down. The first was a swoop down of 35K on 2021-07-16 after breaking below the psychological level of $100K, followed - after some flatlining during a couple of months where I was trying to accept what happened - by another swoop down of 18K on 2021-09-03. Both cases trying to double down out of difficult trades.
More...

mad respect. is this mostly mechanical trading approach? did you risk up on the recovery?
 
Has anyone that's gone through these journals figure out how a trader can have such spectacular returns and seemingly know what they're doing for an extended period of time slide into a random no edge trading style after all that??
 
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VEGASDESERT said:
Has anyone that's gone through these journals figure out how a trader can have such spectacular returns and seemingly know what they're doing for an extended period of time slide into a random no edge trading style after all that??
More...

Markets change. Some strategies completely inverse from high R/R, others display slight change due to R/R and can be still used by being highly selective on trades.
I've got a few that showed insane metrics up to 2008 and have not done much since. That's a market turning point and neke's numbers also changed around that time.
 
VEGASDESERT said:
Has anyone that's gone through these journals figure out how a trader can have such spectacular returns and seemingly know what they're doing for an extended period of time slide into a random no edge trading style after all that??
More...
Really quite simple.---Many successful traders become bored with the day in day out of making money in the markets and seek to stimulate themselves intellectually and try to reinvent the wheel.
 
Long Period Update 10/1/2022 - 12/31/2023

Another swift implosion well below the poverty line, and an all-year effort to get above it. Explains what happened since the last update on 9/30/2022. Just was not able to keep the gains and suffered another blow in Nov last year. Thereafter, with a balance about 50K started the long journey to recovery - came eventually above 100K and managed to hold that to the end of this year.

My modest expectation next year would be a 50% upside. Just trying to take it easy and let the automation do the work - getting as much detachment as I can from the action.


Code: 
Year End Implosion (10/1/2022 - 12/31/2022)

Opening Balance:                      98,272
Net loss for period                  (44,212)
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Net Balance:                          54,060

Recovery Year (1/1/2023 - 12/31/2023)

Opening Balance:                      54,060
Net gain for period                   49,362 (Up 91%)
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Net Balance:                         103,422
 
ejourntrend2023.PNG
 
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