The market has gone almost straight up since March. Absolutely anyone who bought tips in decent equities with no matter how bad the method has made money. This trend won't continue forever.
2014: The Battle for Survival
- Thread starter neke
- Start date
The market has gone almost straight up since March. Absolutely anyone who bought tips in decent equities with no matter how bad the method has made money. This trend won't continue forever.
Since 1980, market is up. I have only been doing this for a few months, but the principles I'm using will always apply as long as 1) you can hold on & stay solvent and 2) manage risk. I have had to cut some losers and am aware there are years like 07/08. Trying to stay in sectors that are hot (tech) and diversify a bit.
To my point, he lost money although the "market has gone almost straight up."
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The Fed has been printing trillions of $. Everyone's a genius in a bull market. Was watching a funny segment on CNBC earlier today discussing AAPL's big event, Kevin O'Leary pointing out, Apple has not had significant growth in years, but he owns it, the marketcap of AAPL is over $2.12 Trillion, wtf, Amazon or Microsoft going to follow that $2T valuation, soon, Google just hit $1T, it's very simple, you have money, you better be fully invested, come get yours before the Fed party ends the $ printing, only people getting hurt are the ones keeping their $ on the sidelines or unfortunately, the poor people who cannot afford to invest.
My portfolio is up significantly since March and I don't own a single stock. Should I go to ca$h before it cra$he$? Naah, I feel invincible. I'm a victim of Dunning Kruger effect. Watch the Fed, they keep printing, you keep buying. Good luck.
be careful not to over estimate your ability “to hold on and stay solvent.”
That was a long winded way of pointing out the market is irrational. I'm not sure what your point is about not owning stocks. Who gives a shit if you own a stock, or silver or cows... most investments are pretty similar when you boil them down. Even if you are holding real estate, you are not immune to market cycles & tax.
And hey hey, no one is overestimating their abilities here. I own a 11 hundred shares of commodities and stocks. In order for me to lose money, all would have to decline for weeks or months & I will cut my losses at certain levels. Surely some will go up and I will take some money then. I day traded for 10 years so I learned some hard market bullshit like "how to stay solvent" and "market irrationality."
Regardless, the focus is on neke here... you should be trying to advise him. I didn't lose money this quarter but he did! I will post for both you johnarb and newwurld when I lose all my money though! Don't worry! Just prep yourself for that deep ditch that will happen when Biden gets into office.
You mean I should be up if the market is up for the quarter. It does not work that way for me - as I am not going long only. Having said that, I ought to have made money for the quarter!
Its surreal. Just a couple of years ago or so, we were betting which stock should hit $1 trillion first - a humongous market cap. Now we have 4 or more stock at 2 trillion or knocking. In times past, I would look at those megacaps - top 3/5 in the market - and you see XOM, GE, MSFT, etc and you thought these are old economy and impossible to grow fast - with low PEs. Now we have 2 trillion dollar company growing revenue 40% year over year, and PE above 100. Defies everything I could have predicted.
Ahh, you didn't say that you day traded for 10 years, you just mentioned you were up since March when the Fed started putting the pedal to the metal printing trillions. It's not so much about the markets being irrational, in a way it's actually acting quite rational considering all things. All central banks are printing trillions of $ and thus inflating all investments, doesn't matter if it's stocks, bonds, real estate, cows, commodities, it's +EV to be going long as 80-90% are going up "since March" and tbh, US stock markets have been propped up since the great recession with unlimited QE. If you day traded for 10 years, you know this already and you're not one of the Dave Portnoy followers wide-eyed millennials on RH daytrading and making bank and thinking they're geniuses just because they never lose. The game is stacked, as you well know. Checkout my avatar, it's a junior trainee at the Fed cranking the $ printing press (brrrr), because Jerome himself, is a god at this, he even said clearly on an interview he just adds digits to the balance sheet, when the numbers need to be increased, lmao, and to that long winded point, things don't last forever, your 1100 shares of whatever could crash real hard along with the AAPL's and the TSLA's and the commercial real estate, etc, and the trading landscape won't be so easy with violent swings both ways, melting up when you're short and crashing down when you cover and go long, not a 1-way trend.
Anyway, don't worry about us or our opinions of your abilities, this is just an anonymous message board, where we're all larping, just keep doing you, and wish you continued success. I mean that, bro.
I cannot give advise to neke as I'm a purely discretionary FA trader and nothing to offer. neke is a legend on ET, he's been doing this for many, many years, checkout the OP of this thread. He may be on a dry spell currently but he's been down this road before and if he lost his edge, he'll figure something out, somehow.
Amen!
