2014: The Battle for Survival
- Thread starter neke
- Start date
I get lazy after a bad quarter. Nevermind, will do so shortly.
I trade TSLA just like any other mobile stock. Did lose a ton on TSLA options - not today or last week though - and mostly thru doubling down.
Period Update 06/30/2018 - 09/30/2018
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Terrible 3 months, down 27K (12.4%). For the year, up 33K (19%)
Was having a moderately positive quarter, but late August and September dealt a blow to my effort. Did compound the problem with some doubling down trades. Not what I expected, but still up for the year.
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Terrible 3 months, down 27K (12.4%). For the year, up 33K (19%)
Was having a moderately positive quarter, but late August and September dealt a blow to my effort. Did compound the problem with some doubling down trades. Not what I expected, but still up for the year.
Code:
For 2018
Starting Balance: 172,023 Cumulative P/L: 32,959
Start Date End Date P/L Withrawal Closing Balance
2018-01-01 2018-02-05 -55560 -6000 110,463
2018-02-05 2018-03-05 70245 -3000 177,708
2018-03-05 2018-03-31 58942 0 236,650
2018-03-31 2018-05-05 -16482 -3000 217,168
2018-05-05 2018-06-02 -6498 0 210,670
2018-06-02 2018-06-30 9397 0 220,067
2018-06-30 2018-08-04 20308 -3000 237,375
2018-08-04 2018-09-01 21120 -3000 255,495
2018-09-01 2018-09-29 -68509 0 186,986
Yes, I coded my system to reject doubling down - except for one strategy. That has been the best performing one, accounting for all my gains this year (out of a dozen). Now with this, I am forced to further tighten rules even for this strategy.
Without the doubling, no doubt perfomance would have been more even - positive - for that strategy - not the big swing in performance experienced. Overall though, my trading performance across all the strategies hasnt been great this year. I keep inventing more strategies after backtesting/review, and immediately I put them live, suffer series of starting losses, then shut that strategy down, and repeat with another - same fate.
Been there, done that. Many times.
There's two obvious possibilities - either the strategy is a complete curve-fit and was a failure at launch or you experience a normal drawdown. In both cases you'd typically pull the strategy. Additional monitoring of performance would give you good information on your decision. This is essentially walk-forward testing, not sure if you perform walk-forwards on anything you do.
I'm curious how you have that many unique ideas though, perhaps you should have a much stricter filter on what goes into production. It's better to only go live when you're reasonably convinced. 80% of strategies shouldn't make the cut.
Uh oh, that sounds worrying.
Instead of using an approach of "buy on dips" it might, in the current conditions, be better to "sell on peaks"?