2014: The Battle for Survival

Sad to see neke stopping the updates. It was always a highlight of this website when he posted his trading results. Now all there is left to read are mundane posts from the wannabe traders.
 
southall said:
Lots of hedge funds tread water for two years or more.
Eventually they start to make money again.
More...

Where the hell do you get this shit from? Most hedge funds don't even beat the market and eventually most of them fail. Look up the 5 or 10 years survivor rate...*

So although some might appreciate your mindless cheering, that is not what Neke needs. He needs serious adjustment. Mental and strategy...

*Here I did it for ya:

"Most hedge funds fail: their average life span is about five years. Out of an estimated seventy-two hundred hedge funds in existence at the end of 2010, seven hundred and seventy-five failed or closed in 2011, as did eight hundred and seventy-three in 2012, and nine hundred and four in 2013. This implies that, within three years, around a third of all funds disappeared. "

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2014/07/31/1913792/most-hedge-funds-fail/
 
Here I am going to share a Quora answer, because #2 applies to Neke:

"What is the success rate of new funds?

My data shows that 80%+ of startup funds ultimately fail.
The reason why it may not seem that high (considering there are thousands of hedge funds in operation every year and hundreds launching per quarter), is because funds unfortunately die very slow deaths.

Most PMs keep their funds open well past their expiration date, due predominantly to two reasons:
  1. They are simply not realistic regarding the viability of their fund (or lack thereof)....
  2. They are too emotionally tied to their business and dont shut down when "they should" (ie, poor performance, cant secure enough capital, cant secure good enough talent, etc). Countless PMs keep their funds open and dig into their own pockets for working capital for far too long past their respective expiration dates, out of pride.
I hate to sound cold here but if more funds shut down when they should, there would be a lot less funds in existence today."

https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-success-rate-of-new-hedge-fund

TL;DR: They die a slow death due to pride...
 
Pekelo said:
"What is the success rate of new funds?

My data shows that 80%+ of startup funds ultimately fail.
More...

80% of new traders fail just like 80% of new funds.

But neke is passed that stage.

He has over 10 year experience.

And he continues to pull money out of the market.

You want to compare him to funds that have been around for 10 years or more,
most of those will have periods where no money is made for 2 years or more.
 
Last edited:
OldSpec said:
Sorry to hear that. You know I always root for you.
So what happened? The market had been in a strong uptrend. Did you bet against this trend or did you oversize one or two positions that went against you?
More...


Below are the trades for the period. You can see it was two days, and especially two trades, on 2016-11-08 and 2016-11-14, that explains the month. Again it was from

known issues - shutting down system and doubling down. All my analysis shows me that this would be a "great" year without doubling down. All I have now is to get over

this and ensure new discipline. First I set up a remote server to avoid issues with hosting system at home, but was able to remote login during trading hours. Now I am

taking that ability away - medicine after death, I know. But things have to be done, and that is the start.

Code: 
TRADES

TYPE   Exit Date/Time     P/L

OPTION   2016-11-07-11-08-00   -10838.6
STOCK   2016-11-08-15-12-00   -8521.8
OPTION   2016-11-08-15-05-41   -50090.1
OPTION   2016-11-08-11-09-36   -15598.5
STOCK   2016-11-09-15-52-15   -4778.8
OPTION   2016-11-09-09-40-13   4653.7
OPTION   2016-11-09-15-51-41   1711.6
STOCK   2016-11-09-12-08-43   23.1
OPTION   2016-11-09-15-52-50   3126
OPTION   2016-11-09-15-59-13   -2436.1
STOCK   2016-11-10-10-51-48   3954.9
OPTION   2016-11-10-09-46-36   -7356.5
OPTION   2016-11-11-09-52-58   4097.1
STOCK   2016-11-10-15-01-11   -2356.8
STOCK   2016-11-10-15-49-12   512.9
STOCK   2016-11-11-09-45-39   7180.1
OPTION   2016-11-11-10-00-45   12390.6
OPTION   2016-11-11-14-37-06   -1427.7
OPTION   2016-11-11-14-26-42   -3834.7
OPTION   2016-11-11-14-35-34   -870.6
STOCK   2016-11-14-14-45-50   -1259
STOCK   2016-11-14-14-36-57   -318.9
OPTION   2016-11-14-15-39-11   -54944.3
STOCK   2016-11-14-15-41-32   -4819.8
OPTION   2016-11-14-15-19-08   -7460.6
OPTION   2016-11-14-15-43-17   -4914.8
OPTION   2016-11-14-15-37-43   -9227.7
STOCK   2016-11-16-10-37-38   -891
STOCK   2016-11-16-10-40-26   -941.3
STOCK   2016-11-16-15-55-22   706.5
OPTION   2016-11-17-14-41-49   -5068
STOCK   2016-11-17-10-39-14   -321
STOCK   2016-11-17-13-42-46   2275.8
OPTION   2016-11-17-13-42-46   7301.3
STOCK   2016-11-18-15-55-17   -1964.3
STOCK   2016-11-18-10-21-39   1156.8
OPTION   2016-11-18-10-14-59   28.3
STOCK   2016-11-21-15-55-13   3301.9
STOCK   2016-11-22-11-08-55   -1641.1
STOCK   2016-11-22-11-54-03   1383
STOCK   2016-11-23-11-07-39   -624
STOCK   2016-11-23-10-36-01   -1089.1
OPTION   2016-11-23-11-01-12   269.8
OPTION   2016-11-23-11-06-53   -2453.5
STOCK   2016-11-29-15-55-14   249.1
STOCK   2016-11-29-15-49-14   -106.4
STOCK   2016-11-30-15-28-59   1784.7
OPTION   2016-11-30-15-28-19   1214.6
OPTION   2016-11-30-10-53-26   -592.9
STOCK   2016-11-30-12-12-34   1543.5
STOCK   2016-12-01-15-55-15   3326.8
OPTION   2016-12-02-09-46-58   -1496.1
STOCK   2016-12-02-09-48-21   2102.5
 
Daal said:
Neke's position sizing doesn't make any sense, yet he continues with it. Ed Seykota says everyone gets what they want out of the market, perhaps wild fluctuations is what Neke is looking for, deep down.
More...
The position sizing does not make sense when I shut down my system. When I operate according to the limits carefully defined and allowed by my system, I have no problem with the size. No, I don't want wild fluctuations deep down - I want to retire with a good cash balance and ability to have an income stream: I think that is deep down!
 
neke said:
No, I don't want wild fluctuations deep down
More...

You do know 5K is a significant risk to a 250K account as 2% risk is considered a bit aggressive.
5% is considered very aggressive risk taking.
If you are losing 55K on a trade, that is 20% of your account.
If 5% is considered very aggressive risk taking then what is risking 20%?
 
This is going to be my last response to you, because we are going in circles... Also you are the one who said 2 months ago, "it is 'only' a 30% loss". Credibility shot right there...

southall said:
And he continues to pull money out of the market.

You want to compare him to funds that have been around for 10 years or more,
most of those will have periods where no money is made for 2 years or more.
More...

We already established that he hasn't made anything for 25 months. So no, he isn't pulling anything out of the market as of now...The YTD is also negative.

We also established you don't know shit about HFs. Longevity is actually a liability for HFs:

" We also show that for an average hedge fund, failure risk increases substantially with age. "

https://www.researchgate.net/public...mating_the_Failure_Probability_of_Hedge_Funds

I guess I am just going to ignore you from now on...

------------------------------

Since I kind of like numbers, and Neke "forgot" the P/L, he lost ~138K, or about 50% of the account.

I think the Cheerleader Brigade actually does a disservice to Neke's ego, and saying "he has brass balls" and "you will make it back" is also not helping. Brass balls usually means that the person took too much risk and got lucky (LUCK is a four letter word in trading). There is a good chance he won't make it back, so counting on it is overly optimistic. But reading mindless encouragement not based in reality can feed Neke's pride and ego, and that is why he is so stubborn to changes, among other things.

If I were sarcastic, I would say this is the time when Neke should open up a trading room and sell services, as most of those who have passed their glory days do.

Time will tell who is right, godspeed...
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top