It's incredible that a trader with many many years of experience would be trading so badly, completely overpowered by his emotions. He used the word "INSANE" to describe his trading, i think that says it all.
2014: The Battle for Survival
- Thread starter neke
- Start date
But who woulda thought this guy would last this long? You and I, along with a host of others, have been monitoring his weekly, now monthly, blotters since...what...2009?? He didn't jump off the bridge as we all thought he would at one point. So what's the point of bitching? He'll do just fine without you or me and everyone in between.
Actually the first thread was in February 2007: Taking 76K to 500K by Year End (2007)
Here is the summary of the performance since then:
Code:
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Opening Balance( 02/28/2007): 76,000
Net gain for period 794,420
Cash Withdrawal (619,900)
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Net Balance( 12/5/2015): 250,520I accept the volatility is bad, and I will keep striving to reduce it, but this is hardly a wipe-out, jump-off-the-bridge situation!
Exactly. Everyone has such a short attention span, they forget how much money you've made over the years. Volatility is just a byproduct of an aggressive, but winning trading style, which most of the chicken littles here on ET can't deal with.
This is a trading forum therefore we are judging/criticizing his trading and not his job. Sure, we don't know, maybe he makes $20mm at his day job but that's not what this is about is it?
We don't really know how much anyone actually makes unless they post the numbers so let's just leave that.
You don't understand "risk of ruin", his swings are too big meaning a series of bad periods will result in a catastrophic loss of capital, he is trading on the edge at this point - before he was more conservative from what I remember. Smooth equity curve matters to the point that you need to keep trading and a 50-70% drawdown will insure that making that back will be extremely hard due to compounding.
Are you really saying that Sharpe/Sortino ratios are useless and we should always risk the maximum amount on any one trade? If that's the case, good luck to you.
The problem here is that you take criticism toward Neke as a personal insult while simply a criticism on his trading methods, I see nothing wrong with that. Neke comes across as someone who isn't easily rattled by a few criticisms.
Actually, I don't mind the volatility, what I criticize is the lack of long term performance. Correct me if I am wrong ( and too lazy to look up all those years) but your annual performance was something like this:
1. First few years a huge run up of profits.
2. Couple of years of losses and breakevens.
3. 2014 again a nice gain of profits until November.
4. In the last 13 months slight loss (-10K) with huge volatility in monthly performance.
So the question is, why do you have such a huge volatility in your performance??? Why years of no profits???
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If he knew when his bad months would come, obviously he would avoid them. Its like asking a hedge fund manager why he had those bad months, and why he doesn't just avoid them. Its because trading is not 100% predictable. It is only 100% predictable in hindsight. Yet we have trolls coming in left and right acting like they are trading gods who know everything, yet don't make as much as neke.
He's not an HFT operation here making money on 99% of trading days, he's an aggressive trader trying to make millions with a few hundred K. In order to do that in a year, you have to accept big drawdowns as a byproduct of the bigger bet size.
And it is laughable to me that you say he has a lack of long term performance. Have you made more than 900% since 2007?
There is a big difference between big drawdowns and drawdowns that could ruin you. What if the 32% and 36% monthly losses happened one after another? It doesn't have to be likely but as long as it's very much possible, that's a problem.
Neke, what we want to see ain't so much less volatility but more consistency. You can be as volatile as you want. Just give us some semblance of sanity. You are all over the map, gyrating from one month to the next. This rollercoaster ride is only giving your viewers a major nausea.