2014: The Battle for Survival

Period Update for July (7/4/2015 - 8/1/2015) (4 weeks)

No comments. The wounds are still raw.

Code: 
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Opening Balance:                	325,816
Net loss for period 		        (88,234)
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance:                   		237,582


For the Thread YTD  2015 (1/3/2015 - 7/4/2015)

Opening Balance:                       256,099
Net gain   	    	                 9,483 (Up 4%)
Cash Withdrawal			       (28,000)
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance			       237,582
----------------------

TRADES

TYPE	Exit Date/Time		P/L

STOCK	2015-07-06-12-28-49	-6322.2
STOCK	2015-07-07-15-28-17	545.6
STOCK	2015-07-07-15-50-01	9653.7
STOCK	2015-07-07-15-25-33	9482
OPTION	2015-07-07-10-03-07	-1132
OPTION	2015-07-07-13-15-42	-6041.2
STOCK	2015-07-08-15-45-45	-4244.3
OPTION	2015-07-08-11-32-27	7140.2
STOCK	2015-07-08-14-57-37	4101.6
STOCK	2015-07-08-15-00-31	7745.8
STOCK	2015-07-08-14-27-55	4606.8
STOCK	2015-07-08-14-57-20	91.8
OPTION	2015-07-08-09-43-29	-5945.9
OPTION	2015-07-08-15-29-51	6167.8
OPTION	2015-07-08-15-31-17	-7323.1
OPTION	2015-07-08-14-56-58	-868.6
OPTION	2015-07-09-10-23-16	-5041.4
OPTION	2015-07-09-12-15-45	-37582
STOCK	2015-07-09-14-14-25	276.5
STOCK	2015-07-10-12-31-41	105.2
OPTION	2015-07-10-10-24-48	2945
OPTION	2015-07-10-11-50-20	5436.1
STOCK	2015-07-10-11-26-09	160.7
STOCK	2015-07-10-09-46-44	1963.1
OPTION	2015-07-10-15-40-38	7737.8
STOCK	2015-07-13-14-19-19	3634.7
STOCK	2015-07-13-11-53-06	-11417.3
OPTION	2015-07-13-15-27-34	2080.2
STOCK	2015-07-13-11-59-04	2733.1
OPTION	2015-07-13-11-50-08	-308.5
STOCK	2015-07-13-15-02-36	817.7
OPTION	2015-07-14-09-49-06	-5746.1
STOCK	2015-07-15-10-23-21	-13358.4
OPTION	2015-07-15-15-52-58	5791
STOCK	2015-07-15-10-55-03	1413
STOCK	2015-07-15-14-12-30	1433.3
OPTION	2015-07-16-10-42-41	-9204.4
STOCK	2015-07-16-11-05-33	1180.5
STOCK	2015-07-16-15-55-12	2584.6
OPTION	2015-07-16-12-56-50	3615.4
OPTION	2015-07-16-11-03-52	14799.6
STOCK	2015-07-17-10-47-08	1763.4
OPTION	2015-07-17-15-49-44	32359.3
OPTION	2015-07-17-15-37-23	12442.3
OPTION	2015-07-17-09-38-14	-254.8
OPTION	2015-07-17-13-40-23	-5550.5
STOCK	2015-07-17-10-44-23	-4256
OPTION	2015-07-20-14-51-42	-8277.8
STOCK	2015-07-20-09-47-06	472.7
OPTION	2015-07-20-11-33-00	1454.9
OPTION	2015-07-20-14-58-43	-71860.4
OPTION	2015-07-20-14-52-01	-23762.1
OPTION	2015-07-20-14-56-17	-31369.7
OPTION	2015-07-21-15-58-03	6849.2
STOCK	2015-07-21-15-36-45	1104.5
OPTION	2015-07-21-15-53-16	909
STOCK	2015-07-22-11-23-46	-2903.2
STOCK	2015-07-22-10-19-20	-2866.2
OPTION	2015-07-22-11-07-21	-15349.5
OPTION	2015-07-22-10-14-25	-6149.5
STOCK	2015-07-22-15-55-14	-292.5
STOCK	2015-07-23-10-20-47	1726.7
STOCK	2015-07-24-10-11-53	1460.6
OPTION	2015-07-24-11-05-37	-329.6
OPTION	2015-07-24-10-11-36	-12107.1
STOCK	2015-07-24-15-49-09	-223.9
OPTION	2015-07-24-14-30-30	13897.9
STOCK	2015-07-24-15-52-56	-1982.6
STOCK	2015-07-24-15-49-08	-570.8
STOCK	2015-07-24-15-49-06	-2033.3
STOCK	2015-07-27-12-22-51	-2557.5
OPTION	2015-07-27-13-37-05	1935.1
STOCK	2015-07-27-15-49-08	3380.7
STOCK	2015-07-27-15-49-11	973.3
STOCK	2015-07-27-15-55-21	6073.7
STOCK	2015-07-27-15-49-08	2334
STOCK	2015-07-27-15-49-10	384.4
OPTION	2015-07-27-14-45-31	-486.3
OPTION	2015-07-28-15-37-01	-8430.3
STOCK	2015-07-28-15-49-15	3134.2
OPTION	2015-07-28-15-52-40	8953.8
STOCK	2015-07-28-15-49-24	2140.3
STOCK	2015-07-29-09-34-35	16090.9
OPTION	2015-07-29-10-17-22	1101.7
STOCK	2015-07-29-12-06-41	-16.2
STOCK	2015-07-29-15-49-29	-296.6
STOCK	2015-07-30-16-19-55	-5155.6
STOCK	2015-07-30-18-50-19	5267.1
OPTION	2015-07-31-11-35-16	-629.4
STOCK	2015-07-31-15-34-22	-447.3
 
Looks like typical revenge trading behavior. You had a good start to the month, gave it back on a chunky loss, and then started taking too many trades to try to come back from your loss. Leading to more losses on coin flip trades, and then full tilt trading later in the month.

I've been there. It is hell, as it takes a lot longer to gain it back then it does to lose it. But you've got to get back to being patient and waiting for the right setups and use proper risk management. You don't make it all back in one day, or one week, it will take some time, but it seems you have an edge, so I am sure you will be back on top within a few months.
 
For you to leave a losing position dwell to more than -70k, I'm assuming you're trading mean reversion. Mean reversion works well most of the time but you have to pay up once in a while. It's part of the game.
 
MarketOwl said:
Looks like typical revenge trading behavior. ....
More...

One possible thing to do is to review for as far as you can , from your journals, every situations where you revenge traded - specifically the first time it occured. And to try to find why you repeat the pattern and what "benefitS" you are getting out of it.
 
I've only read a few pages back but OMG,
A couple thoughts:

It's been a long time since I've seen Don Miller mentioned. A nice guy, he called me once, gratis. I was at the end of my rope...

Reviewing what looks like a list of trades comes across as being way too volatile, regardless of style of trader.

Too many options.

Is this a great home run hitter that needs to get more selective of pitches to swing at?

Does this trader reflect on losing enough to learn from it?
 
Let's remember that Neke is one of the extremely rare trader who actually lives comfortably from his trading , and that also puts here for all to see all his trading as it is : the wins, the losses, the high, the lows.
The problem I now understand is one can only suggest to someone a way to find a solution, even if it seems to be obvious what psychological ( here I'd say "spiritual issue") is manifesting itself.
 
smallStops said:
Let's remember that Neke is one of the extremely rare trader who actually lives comfortably from his trading...
More...

Last I remember he had a well paying full-time job that's not trading related.
 
koolaid said:
Mean reversion works well most of the time
More...

"Most of the time" has to be taken into context. If the play is a mean reversion one, than it means that the item is "over-bought/sold". Most times, there is a reason for this unusual and extended price and that reason can become even more compelling "most of the time".

Averaging down/up, most times plays against this compelling reason and the logical way to get out okay with averaging is by pyramiding the additions. However, if one is stuck on the wrong side, and they realize it, it becomes difficult to put in bigger conviction (displayed by putting on bigger size) against ones ideology.

Sometimes it works (and you have to be good at this type of thing), but most times it's going to be a red trade.

Regardless of the result, a lot of time and energy is consumed here that statistically it is not worth it.

you have to pay up once in a while.
More...

And when you do, the numbers quickly cancel out all the times that the "strategy" "worked".
 
There should come a time when even the biggest noob on planet has to admit defeat.
Preferably before he runs outa money.
Sorry
 
First of all I really admire you for continuing to write the best journal on the website and for having big cojones to keep posting your performance regardless of what the market throws at you.

I am a better than average trader in the sense that I have been trading for 8 years (selling option spreads on the SP500 futures ) and have had from a flat to modestly positive performance. I have been following all your journals for many years. I have no idea how you can possibly go through such rollercoasters. Obviously everyone has his own way to trade, but if I had to go trough the kind of gains and losses you have I would be emotionally and financially drained. Let's forget the financial aspect hoping that before the end of they year you can make some gains again. Let's stay with the mental/psychological part. How can you possibly see yourself trading AND keep your cool, be always in control for many years to come with such ups and downs ?

Just for the records this year I am up 10% and losing money is part of my job. My goal is about 1% each month, but you were up 58% by the end of February !!! Who makes 30% each month, isn't that something unusual and very special ?!

Last thing I want to do is to twist the knife into the wounds, we have all been there yet YOU ARE STILL TRADING while the vast majority of people isn't. The market messed up their head and bank account. There are people who used to make $100s or $1000s in 1 day but after losing it all had to stop trading. Now they work for $20 x hour and have hard time doing it.

If I have a month where instead of making/ losing 1%- 2% I make 10% the very first thing I would do is to take a little time off. Not to be lazy per se but to let it sink in, to pause a little before going back. Making a lot of money and making it fast it is not normal ( your 58% ). We have to find what suits us best to maintain some sanity so that we can continue and hopefully make money for the long run while trading -one the most ferocious environments to make a living.

You have been in this game long enough and you know what is best for you, but in my humble opinion after losing almost all your gains some time off would help you. In 2008 I took time off when the very same thing happened to me. To survive I had to come back psychologically sound. I am still trading.

Good Luck,

guy
 
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