2014: The Battle for Survival
- Thread starter neke
- Start date
Wow, you never say anything useful, except the blind cheering.
Anyhow, since I like to compare apples to apples, Neke's performance in the last 6 months is equivalent to a small account trader trading a 10K account and making 6 ES points PER MONTH (inc. com.). That is $250 or 2.5% monthly.
I like it that way. Check out those weeks with lots of participation - down maybe 20-50% for the week. I must be doing something right now!
Period Update for June (5/31/2015 - 7/4/2015) (5 weeks)
Frustrating month, up 1.6K (0.5%).
Made good gains first couple of weeks, and was getting ready to celebrate a break-out. It was not to be. Lost the gains in the next several weeks. The range trading continues. I have attached my P/L cumulative since Jan 2013. It's proving harder than expected to resume the uptrend. On the positive side, the hitherto worst performing strategy this year (OPN-FCR) has reversed course and delivered good gains the past couple of months. Negative side, that is more than compensated by the plunge in the best-performing strategy till April (OPN-OPM). The once best-performing stock strategy also took a battering this month.
Frustrating month, up 1.6K (0.5%).
Made good gains first couple of weeks, and was getting ready to celebrate a break-out. It was not to be. Lost the gains in the next several weeks. The range trading continues. I have attached my P/L cumulative since Jan 2013. It's proving harder than expected to resume the uptrend. On the positive side, the hitherto worst performing strategy this year (OPN-FCR) has reversed course and delivered good gains the past couple of months. Negative side, that is more than compensated by the plunge in the best-performing strategy till April (OPN-OPM). The once best-performing stock strategy also took a battering this month.
Code:
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Opening Balance: 331,669
Net gain for period 1,647
Cash Withdrawal (7,500)
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Net Balance: 325,816
For the Thread YTD 2015 (1/3/2015 - 7/4/2015)
Opening Balance: 256,099
Net gain 97,717 (Up 38%)
Cash Withdrawal (28,000)
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Net Balance 325,816
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TRADES
TYPE Exit Date/Time P/L
STOCK 2015-06-01-11-13-49 850.2
OPTION 2015-06-01-13-45-02 8787.6
OPTION 2015-06-02-11-15-09 16568.8
STOCK 2015-06-02-15-54-20 7765.4
STOCK 2015-06-02-15-55-18 -2816.4
STOCK 2015-06-03-12-12-19 3482
STOCK 2015-06-03-09-34-32 -1003.7
OPTION 2015-06-03-09-38-52 -6831.9
STOCK 2015-06-03-15-49-30 -3636.1
STOCK 2015-06-03-15-55-20 478.4
OPTION 2015-06-03-15-29-49 4950.5
STOCK 2015-06-04-14-38-38 3009.1
STOCK 2015-06-04-15-17-35 -2981.1
OPTION 2015-06-04-15-15-44 -11375.7
OPTION 2015-06-04-13-34-43 32112.8
STOCK 2015-06-04-15-16-24 -4937.1
STOCK 2015-06-05-15-49-13 -1454.5
OPTION 2015-06-08-11-22-37 5453.8
OPTION 2015-06-09-14-24-59 22934.5
STOCK 2015-06-08-15-49-11 734.8
STOCK 2015-06-08-15-55-12 -1299.4
STOCK 2015-06-08-15-55-11 -4271.5
OPTION 2015-06-08-15-31-01 -4719.1
OPTION 2015-06-09-15-56-06 3741.9
STOCK 2015-06-09-15-55-18 -5532.1
STOCK 2015-06-09-15-55-20 -613.5
OPTION 2015-06-15-10-32-42 -492.4
OPTION 2015-06-15-14-28-14 -4841.4
STOCK 2015-06-16-15-55-09 -10270.5
OPTION 2015-06-16-09-31-43 63.1
OPTION 2015-06-16-15-34-22 10308.9
OPTION 2015-06-17-13-43-25 -6522.6
OPTION 2015-06-17-14-00-28 -5285.5
STOCK 2015-06-17-16-24-58 401.4
STOCK 2015-06-17-17-09-40 1296.4
STOCK 2015-06-18-11-14-36 2228.9
STOCK 2015-06-18-13-43-34 1978.6
OPTION 2015-06-18-15-20-26 -4634.6
STOCK 2015-06-18-15-55-16 -392.4
STOCK 2015-06-19-12-08-13 -6917.3
OPTION 2015-06-19-10-13-30 -13454.3
STOCK 2015-06-22-10-56-52 2475.7
STOCK 2015-06-22-11-03-09 477.2
OPTION 2015-06-22-12-08-55 -2043
STOCK 2015-06-23-10-05-14 522.9
STOCK 2015-06-23-15-01-04 -13623.6
STOCK 2015-06-24-12-09-58 3025.1
OPTION 2015-06-24-15-43-55 -1715.5
STOCK 2015-06-24-15-49-15 20.3
OPTION 2015-06-24-15-20-07 -8156.5
STOCK 2015-06-25-12-08-34 996.8
STOCK 2015-06-26-10-41-21 8952.7
OPTION 2015-06-26-10-37-12 8108.1
STOCK 2015-06-26-10-33-30 4150.4
OPTION 2015-06-26-15-10-23 5879.1
STOCK 2015-06-26-15-15-36 -611.8
OPTION 2015-06-26-15-42-32 -29869.5
STOCK 2015-06-26-15-16-33 -633.2
STOCK 2015-06-26-15-45-00 -147.3
STOCK 2015-06-26-15-45-00 -1810.6
STOCK 2015-06-29-16-04-12 6334.9
STOCK 2015-06-30-15-49-24 -10946.1
STOCK 2015-06-30-15-49-42 -9585.5
OPTION 2015-06-30-15-14-41 7796
STOCK 2015-07-01-13-59-24 25079.3
STOCK 2015-07-01-15-55-17 -4867.1
OPTION 2015-07-02-09-53-28 -11152.9
STOCK 2015-07-02-16-09-34 113.5I can't thank you enough for your honesty. It is very rare and very informative... It might seem my posts criticize you a lot, but I try to do it with an intention of helping you with my analyses. Sometimes it is nice to have a second look by an independent observer. That being said, here is an interesting observation about your longer term P/L trends:
Looks like you have had long periods (about 4-6 months) of not making any money, then the next 2-3 months you made a decent gain just to go back to the next 5-6 months of no profits.
Since 2013, I counted 4 periods of drought, and 3 periods of profit burst, the last 2 of them were significant.* Now your sample size of 2.5 years might be too small to draw any conclusions, nevertheless it is interesting. The last 7 months saw increased volatility, but overall still flat performance. If I didn't know I would say I am looking at a stock chart, that is violently consolidating right now before further upmove...
Well, if your profitability trend keeps continuing, the next 2-3 months should be nicely profitable... Good luck and thanks again...
*Just to be pedantic:
1. 4 months drought, then making 50K
2. 5 months drought then making 80K
3. 5 months drought, then making 200K
4. 7 months flat and >>>> ????
Looks like you have had long periods (about 4-6 months) of not making any money, then the next 2-3 months you made a decent gain just to go back to the next 5-6 months of no profits.
Since 2013, I counted 4 periods of drought, and 3 periods of profit burst, the last 2 of them were significant.* Now your sample size of 2.5 years might be too small to draw any conclusions, nevertheless it is interesting. The last 7 months saw increased volatility, but overall still flat performance. If I didn't know I would say I am looking at a stock chart, that is violently consolidating right now before further upmove...
Well, if your profitability trend keeps continuing, the next 2-3 months should be nicely profitable... Good luck and thanks again...
*Just to be pedantic:
1. 4 months drought, then making 50K
2. 5 months drought then making 80K
3. 5 months drought, then making 200K
4. 7 months flat and >>>> ????
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No, neke's posts are not informative, they are entertaining. Two very different things, and unfortunately, much less entertaining than in the past when he had weekly updates. Its almost like looking at last month's box scores, much less entertaining and interesting than looking at yesterday's box scores.
How do you take 7 periods, according to you, over two years and consider that as a big enough sample size to predict what he will make over the next few months? It is this kind of micromanaging of useless info that get traders in trouble and a false sense of security and believing the past will repeat again in the future.
The trading game is about risk management and edge, not about picking out useless stats from past performance as a crutch or belief that they will repeat in the future. In the future, the market can be Better OR Worse than now, we don't know. All we can do is rely on Edge and Proper risk management.
I specially mentioned that it might not be a big enough sample size, so your post as usual, was worthless. I also tried to be upbeat about his performance, predicting positive future profits. I thought you were in the same boat, with the mindless cheering...
But to be more relevant and useful, so let's do more stats. Neke made 11K per month on average (with a varying account size), with a lately very volatile record. To make it comparable to a small account trader, his performance is like a 5K account holder (let's say intraday ES trader) making $275 per month, or 1.5 ES points per week. (based on Neke's 200K average account)
