2014: The Battle for Survival

southall · Jan 31, 2015

Based on the list he posted, his biggest losing trades were around 5% last month.
If my memory recalls he has lost 10%+ on trades before.

You going to get big swings in equity when you risk that much. 50%+ drawdowns and 200% up years etc

Neke has a full time job i think so he can take those kinds of losses.

comingkingofisrael · Feb 1, 2015

Bill Dunn has 50% drawdowns and if his clients ask him even one question,he kicks them? Neke needs 5 billionaire clients.

Zzoom · Feb 3, 2015

fxwannaB said:
94K swing in a 250K account.. you're nuts.

94K positive swing in a 250K account.. you're doing great.

neke · Feb 13, 2015

neke said:
SPY already back at a new high. Not sure what it is going to take to have a correction - Or at least go two months without new highs. I may have to put a pause on my short strategies.

Markets at new high once again. Not even two months (Dec 29 - Feb 12 for SPY). Still waiting for 2 months of no new highs. Account performance outstanding nonetheless.

neke · Feb 27, 2015

Period Update for February 1/31/2015 - 2/28/2015 (4 weeks)

Another good month, up 99.8K (33%).

Delighted to have another great month, although I didn't like some of the trading done. First two weeks was stellar, could almost do nothing wrong, then the third week (shortened trading week), became fixated with CYBR. Lost a total of 125K in three attempts to fade that stock (with PUT options, on increased leverage). Those were by far the largest losing trades of the month (-37152.9,-42549.5, -46228.4). Felt so vulnerable after that: need to start each day's ideas without mental hangover from prior session(s).

Disappointing performance on OPN-FCR, one of the two best-performing of last year. Fortunately, made enough from other strategies to gloss over this.

Code:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Opening Balance:                	302,091
Net gain for period 		         99,842
Cash Withdrawal				 (3,500)
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance:                   		398,433


For the Thread YTD  2015 (1/3/2015 - 2/28/2015)

Opening Balance:                       256,099
Net gain   	    	               149,334 (Up 58%)
Cash Withdrawal			        (7,000)
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance			       398,433
----------------------

TRADES

TYPE	Exit Date/Time		P/L

STOCK	2015-02-02-15-38-42	8965.3
OPTION	2015-02-02-15-37-36	11421.2
STOCK	2015-02-03-12-27-44	6932.7
STOCK	2015-02-03-12-50-09	-2016.9
STOCK	2015-02-03-14-05-06	7379.4
STOCK	2015-02-04-10-58-15	852.1
OPTION	2015-02-04-11-35-03	7584.1
OPTION	2015-02-04-12-16-26	4320.9
STOCK	2015-02-04-15-53-57	1237.7
STOCK	2015-02-05-15-09-41	872.4
OPTION	2015-02-05-15-47-41	3925.5
OPTION	2015-02-05-12-28-31	10232.1
STOCK	2015-02-05-15-24-59	-556.8
STOCK	2015-02-06-15-01-09	-3302.6
OPTION	2015-02-06-15-00-27	-559.2
OPTION	2015-02-06-15-18-22	-2422.3
OPTION	2015-02-06-13-11-12	7924.5
STOCK	2015-02-06-15-55-13	-4978.1
STOCK	2015-02-09-09-44-23	4908.3
STOCK	2015-02-09-09-43-29	1174.9
STOCK	2015-02-09-12-49-50	90
STOCK	2015-02-09-15-55-29	-739.2
STOCK	2015-02-10-15-49-32	6657
STOCK	2015-02-10-13-13-43	3874.8
STOCK	2015-02-10-15-45-06	935.9
OPTION	2015-02-11-09-50-53	2767.7
STOCK	2015-02-11-15-55-26	-670.1
STOCK	2015-02-12-09-31-05	-2383
OPTION	2015-02-12-14-47-45	19357
OPTION	2015-02-12-12-02-58	-27865
STOCK	2015-02-12-12-18-31	4847.5
OPTION	2015-02-12-14-58-21	-1100.5
OPTION	2015-02-12-13-32-00	31736
STOCK	2015-02-12-12-18-06	5758.2
STOCK	2015-02-12-15-01-04	-11085.2
STOCK	2015-02-12-15-55-13	2824.1
STOCK	2015-02-13-15-12-16	39582.2
STOCK	2015-02-13-14-15-43	7958.2
OPTION	2015-02-13-10-08-19	-1005.8
STOCK	2015-02-13-15-55-35	3932.7
OPTION	2015-02-19-12-06-22	-37152.9
OPTION	2015-02-20-11-34-02	-42549.5
OPTION	2015-02-19-11-08-22	-14009.6
OPTION	2015-02-19-14-42-08	-3681.5
OPTION	2015-02-19-14-38-46	28716.8
OPTION	2015-02-20-11-02-49	10952
OPTION	2015-02-20-12-38-01	-46228.4
OPTION	2015-02-20-12-35-11	7916.8
OPTION	2015-02-20-15-49-29	17689.1
STOCK	2015-02-23-11-09-15	1028
STOCK	2015-02-23-15-51-17	756.3
OPTION	2015-02-23-09-52-52	-17.8
OPTION	2015-02-23-15-10-12	2859.5
OPTION	2015-02-24-09-40-36	-5050.5
STOCK	2015-02-24-12-31-52	1923.6
OPTION	2015-02-24-11-35-19	-8049.6
OPTION	2015-02-24-15-44-34	7824.6
STOCK	2015-02-25-14-39-24	8775.9
STOCK	2015-02-25-10-00-06	-2785
OPTION	2015-02-26-15-30-42	-8257.4
STOCK	2015-02-25-15-55-17	2490.6
OPTION	2015-02-25-15-49-56	5958.5
STOCK	2015-02-25-15-01-09	-15018.5
STOCK	2015-02-26-15-01-07	-4733
STOCK	2015-02-26-15-49-37	-3892.4
STOCK	2015-02-26-15-18-53	7909.5
OPTION	2015-02-27-10-28-23	23068.8
STOCK	2015-02-27-11-39-47	14021.7

southall · Feb 28, 2015

It must feel great to make 100K in a month, but your large bets mean you are playing with fire and one day you could get hit by a black swan that takes out your whole account.

jl1575 · Feb 28, 2015

neke said:

Period Update for February 1/31/2015 - 2/28/2015 (4 weeks)

Another good month, up 99.8K (33%).

Delighted to have another great month, although I didn't like some of the trading done. First two weeks was stellar, could almost do nothing wrong, then the third week (shortened trading week), became fixated with CYBR. Lost a total of 125K in three attempts to fade that stock (with PUT options, on increased leverage). Those were by far the largest losing trades of the month (-37152.9,-42549.5, -46228.4). Felt so vulnerable after that: need to start each day's ideas without mental hangover from prior session(s).

Disappointing performance on OPN-FCR, one of the two best-performing of last year. Fortunately, made enough from other strategies to gloss over this.

Code:

Hope to see your current account to reach the 1 million mark soon.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Opening Balance:                    302,091
Net gain for period                  99,842
Cash Withdrawal                 (3,500)
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance:                           398,433


For the Thread YTD  2015 (1/3/2015 - 2/28/2015)

Opening Balance:                       256,099
Net gain                              149,334 (Up 58%)
Cash Withdrawal                    (7,000)
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance                   398,433
----------------------

TRADES

TYPE    Exit Date/Time        P/L

STOCK    2015-02-02-15-38-42    8965.3
OPTION    2015-02-02-15-37-36    11421.2
STOCK    2015-02-03-12-27-44    6932.7
STOCK    2015-02-03-12-50-09    -2016.9
STOCK    2015-02-03-14-05-06    7379.4
STOCK    2015-02-04-10-58-15    852.1
OPTION    2015-02-04-11-35-03    7584.1
OPTION    2015-02-04-12-16-26    4320.9
STOCK    2015-02-04-15-53-57    1237.7
STOCK    2015-02-05-15-09-41    872.4
OPTION    2015-02-05-15-47-41    3925.5
OPTION    2015-02-05-12-28-31    10232.1
STOCK    2015-02-05-15-24-59    -556.8
STOCK    2015-02-06-15-01-09    -3302.6
OPTION    2015-02-06-15-00-27    -559.2
OPTION    2015-02-06-15-18-22    -2422.3
OPTION    2015-02-06-13-11-12    7924.5
STOCK    2015-02-06-15-55-13    -4978.1
STOCK    2015-02-09-09-44-23    4908.3
STOCK    2015-02-09-09-43-29    1174.9
STOCK    2015-02-09-12-49-50    90
STOCK    2015-02-09-15-55-29    -739.2
STOCK    2015-02-10-15-49-32    6657
STOCK    2015-02-10-13-13-43    3874.8
STOCK    2015-02-10-15-45-06    935.9
OPTION    2015-02-11-09-50-53    2767.7
STOCK    2015-02-11-15-55-26    -670.1
STOCK    2015-02-12-09-31-05    -2383
OPTION    2015-02-12-14-47-45    19357
OPTION    2015-02-12-12-02-58    -27865
STOCK    2015-02-12-12-18-31    4847.5
OPTION    2015-02-12-14-58-21    -1100.5
OPTION    2015-02-12-13-32-00    31736
STOCK    2015-02-12-12-18-06    5758.2
STOCK    2015-02-12-15-01-04    -11085.2
STOCK    2015-02-12-15-55-13    2824.1
STOCK    2015-02-13-15-12-16    39582.2
STOCK    2015-02-13-14-15-43    7958.2
OPTION    2015-02-13-10-08-19    -1005.8
STOCK    2015-02-13-15-55-35    3932.7
OPTION    2015-02-19-12-06-22    -37152.9
OPTION    2015-02-20-11-34-02    -42549.5
OPTION    2015-02-19-11-08-22    -14009.6
OPTION    2015-02-19-14-42-08    -3681.5
OPTION    2015-02-19-14-38-46    28716.8
OPTION    2015-02-20-11-02-49    10952
OPTION    2015-02-20-12-38-01    -46228.4
OPTION    2015-02-20-12-35-11    7916.8
OPTION    2015-02-20-15-49-29    17689.1
STOCK    2015-02-23-11-09-15    1028
STOCK    2015-02-23-15-51-17    756.3
OPTION    2015-02-23-09-52-52    -17.8
OPTION    2015-02-23-15-10-12    2859.5
OPTION    2015-02-24-09-40-36    -5050.5
STOCK    2015-02-24-12-31-52    1923.6
OPTION    2015-02-24-11-35-19    -8049.6
OPTION    2015-02-24-15-44-34    7824.6
STOCK    2015-02-25-14-39-24    8775.9
STOCK    2015-02-25-10-00-06    -2785
OPTION    2015-02-26-15-30-42    -8257.4
STOCK    2015-02-25-15-55-17    2490.6
OPTION    2015-02-25-15-49-56    5958.5
STOCK    2015-02-25-15-01-09    -15018.5
STOCK    2015-02-26-15-01-07    -4733
STOCK    2015-02-26-15-49-37    -3892.4
STOCK    2015-02-26-15-18-53    7909.5
OPTION    2015-02-27-10-28-23    23068.8
STOCK    2015-02-27-11-39-47    14021.7

[/quo

Hope to see your current acct reaches one million dollar mark within the year.

blakpacman · Feb 28, 2015

southall said:
It must feel great to make 100K in a month, but your large bets mean you are playing with fire and one day you could get hit by a black swan that takes out your whole account.

jl1575 said:
Hope to see your current acct reaches one million dollar mark within the year.

If Neke can reach the $1m mark, then I think he should take out half his money as insurance.

Rashid_G. · Feb 28, 2015

Wow... You've got to find an MAE that makes sense and cut off losses there no matter what.. How many trades have you had that went over 10% account negative that became good?? There is no account size that cannot be lost when dealing in percentages... account gets big and we think the gravity pull is zero.

jl1575 · Feb 28, 2015

southall said:
It must feel great to make 100K in a month, but your large bets mean you are playing with fire and one day you could get hit by a black swan that takes out your whole account.

How about just using option to trade so you don't risk all the capital. Say, you use 2% of fund for each trade, and you cap your max positions at 10 at anytime. So your max lost is 20% at worst in case of a black swan event, as options give you more than 5X leverage over stocks.

2014: The Battle for Survival

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