2014 Predictions for Bitcoin

[Hoi]

Quote from Swan Noir:

Hoi, I have been following your Bitcon posts with interest ... well thought out stuff. But the one thing I take issue with is your opinion that it is irrelevant if there are a few large holders or many holders. I think it is always a good idea -- if you can -- to know how the float is dispersed. Meanwhile I look forward to your future comments. You clearly are on top of this.

thanks Swan Noir.
An accurate chart of Bitcoins wealth distribution can be found here:
http://bitcoinrichlist.com/charts/bitcoin-distribution-by-address?atblock=275000
I could not find similar accurate chart of USD's "wealth distribution"...(I googled and found only old charts)... but there isn't much difference in both distributions: there are a few extremely rich holders in USD as well as in bitcoin, and a huge number of small ones.

Having said that, I like to add the following:

a) In 5-years Bitcoin-history there were about 6 bubble-runs (this year 2) which caused a huge redistribution of coins: Large holders sold to new entrants. There aren't that many large holders anymore.
These bubble-runs followed by redistribution, you don't see in USD. So I dare to say that Bitcoin will become more evenly spread in future than fiat-currencies (unless high-rollers are buying in hugely).

b) Lots of old addresses (with large holdings) are lost for ever. These holders mined thousands of coins in a month, lost interest because they couldn't hardly buy a pizza with it, and forgot to backup wallets and/or passwords.

c) Quite a few addresses with large holdings aren't from one owner, but instead are aggregated holdings of many holders (Exchanges have cold-storage addresses of all traders on that exchange).

d) On the other hand: for security reasons, many large holders have spread their coins in many smaller wallets.

In anyway: you only need one large-holder selling in a illiquid market to crash it for a short while (just see what currently happens with those Chinese wanting out). But this will not kill Bitcoin, as it didn't in previous bubble-runs. It will distribute the wealth, which is actually a good thing.

 

[Swan Noir]

Many thanks. Here is the difference in our viewpoints: I don't regard it as a currency but rather as a commodity. It may be a currency someday but at that point a grat deal of the volitility will be gone. BTW, I don't own any BC and may never own any but it is interesting!

Quote from Hoi:

thanks Swan Noir.
An accurate chart of Bitcoins wealth distribution can be found here:
http://bitcoinrichlist.com/charts/bitcoin-distribution-by-address?atblock=275000
I could not find similar accurate chart of USD's "wealth distribution"...(I googled and found only old charts)... but there isn't much difference in both distributions: there are a few extremely rich holders in USD as well as in bitcoin, and a huge number of small ones.

Having said that, I like to add the following:

a) In 5-years Bitcoin-history there were about 6 bubble-runs (this year 2) which caused a huge redistribution of coins: Large holders sold to new entrants. There aren't that many large holders anymore.
These bubble-runs followed by redistribution, you don't see in USD. So I dare to say that Bitcoin will become more evenly spread in future than fiat-currencies (unless high-rollers are buying in hugely).

b) Lots of old addresses (with large holdings) are lost for ever. These holders mined thousands of coins in a month, lost interest because they couldn't hardly buy a pizza with it, and forgot to backup wallets and/or passwords.

c) Quite a few addresses with large holdings aren't from one owner, but instead are aggregated holdings of many holders (Exchanges have cold-storage addresses of all traders on that exchange).

d) On the other hand: for security reasons, many large holders have spread their coins in many smaller wallets.

In anyway: you only need one large-holder selling in a illiquid market to crash it for a short while (just see what currently happens with those Chinese wanting out). But this will not kill Bitcoin, as it didn't in previous bubble-runs. It will distribute the wealth, which is actually a good thing.

 

[Hoi]

Quote from Swan Noir:

Many thanks. Here is the difference in our viewpoints: I don't regard it as a currency but rather as a commodity.

Nah..nah...that's not what I meant to write..it was an answer to the point of "uneven wealth distribution" (your comment: I take issue with is your opinion that it is irrelevant if there are a few large holders or many holders).

Please read some of my previous posts: Just like you: I don't see it as a Currency yet! That will take a few years until Bitcoins price reaches $55.000 (1% of worlds M2).
Until then I see it as a high-potential-Protocol and a Commodity. So we agree.

 

[Swan Noir]

Yes ... I recall that you were far from the currency camp. Enjoy your weekend.

Quote from Hoi:

Nah..nah...that's not what I meant to write..it was an answer to the point of "uneven wealth distribution" (your comment: I take issue with is your opinion that it is irrelevant if there are a few large holders or many holders).

Please read some of my previous posts: Just like you: I don't see it as a Currency yet! That will take a few years until Bitcoins price reaches $55.000 (1% of worlds M2).
Until then I see it as a high-potential-Protocol and a Commodity. So we agree.

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from Hoi:

1.Irrelevant: there are about 160 fiat currencies as alternative to USD, and about 60 crypto-currency alternatives for Bitcoin: the best will survive.

2.There is military backing for Argentine Peso, and Zimbabwe Dollar....does that help?

3. (large bitcoin holders)Irrelevant.
But what is relevant, is that ONLY 1 billion people on this globe can have access to a Bank-account. while the other 6 billion can bank their selves with Bitcoin.

1.Ask any bitcoiners about competition if it is irrelevant and you will see just how relevant it is. After all, if a retailer accepts bitcoins, there is no good argument why they shouldn't accept litecoins too. So yes, having alternate coins is VERY relevant specially to the scarcity claim. Once you have gazillions other coins, digital currency isn't rare.

2. It does help that at least there is practical usage for those currencies, unlike for dogecoin. In those countries people get paid in thyem and can buy products and services. Unlike 55 of the existing altcoins.

3. Even you stated in another post that the bitcoin market could have a very negative effect by the actions of large holders. Thus the existence of a few large holders is very relevant. Specially when one of them is called the US government and they could manipulate the price as they wish...

Otherwise Merry Christmas...

P.S.: Bitcoin could succeed as a currency at a very low (let's say under $100 or even under 10) valuation. It is the usage that counts, not the dollar value...

 

[Zr1Trader]

My prediction.

Amazon and the likes will have to follow overstock.com in order to keep up.

The gov't will try to decide whether it is going to fight btc or find a way to tax it.

I think this is just the beginning . Crypto currency technology is a game changer for money as we know it.

The fact that one can send 100 million dollars in minutes with no middleman, gov't oversight, or fees is pretty neat if you ask me.

I think litecoin will be added to major exchanges like mtgox then coinbase and more.

I think litecoins price will appreciate to at least $100 due to increased exposure.

Trade it or fade it

Have a good 2014

 

[xelite777]

Quote from Hoi:

Do your homework and you will learn how useful computer-money is.

Sure, computer money is useful, BUT FOR WHOM?

Virtual currency has been created by the Elite so that they can put microchip implants in your body and store your money/paychecks/ID there, in the not so distant future (google or youtube "RFID chips" or "microchip implants" and see what's coming, if you dare).

And if you don't obey their totalitarian regime ("New World Order" as they call it) or pay this or that they will simply turn off your chip remotely and you will starve and become an outlaw. Total control of the entire planet.

Wake up people, you are being played like a violin.

"And he causeth all, both small and great, rich and poor, free and bond, to receive a mark in their right hand, or in their foreheads[microchip implant]. And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name."
Revelation 13:17

 

[newguy05]

Quote from xelite777:

Sure, computer money is useful, BUT FOR WHOM?

Virtual currency has been created by the Elite so that they can put microchip implants in your body and store your money/paychecks/ID there, in the not so distant future (google or youtube "RFID chips" or "microchip implants" and see what's coming, if you dare).

And if you don't obey their totalitarian regime ("New World Order" as they call it) or pay this or that they will simply turn off your chip remotely and you will starve and become an outlaw. Total control of the entire planet.

Wake up people, you are being played like a violin.

"And he causeth all, both small and great, rich and poor, free and bond, to receive a mark in their right hand, or in their foreheads[microchip implant]. And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name."
Revelation 13:17

haha classic...

like the In Time movie?