2012 Trading Journal of 2steps

satchel · Apr 18, 2012

Gulp. Well that is farked.

What does your mentor have to say about this? Exactly? Judging by their answer some aged souls on ET can advise if they are helping you or helping you be a danger to your trading.

keeptradin' · Apr 18, 2012

Quote from 2steps:

Got the money wired in and lost the money in one hour.

Here is what happened:

I was told to be patient, so I waited for the inventory number to come out. I got up really early and waited for hours until 9:30 am CT.

My mentor told me to see the direction after the number. I watch the first couple of minutes, the price went down and up, then it went down......

I jumped in, shorted at 103.60, but it went up and triggered my stop (35 cents).

I remember that the oil manipulators can push up the price even though it is a build up of inventory. So I changed direction and went long.

I don't want to be stopped out again, so I removed the stop. I was anticipating a squeeze to 105 or 106. I remember what the President said about oil speculators yesterday: they are bad people, they push up the price to unrealistically high levels. So I was feeling comfortable that I went long. What I need to do is to wait for them push the price up. I think the President is right, they will push the price up. I sincerely believed I made a good decision, which was supported by the President of the United States.

I was feeling so confident that I even walked away for a coffee.

But when I came back from the coffee break, I looked at the screen and my heart suddenly sank. Seriously I could almost feel my heart sank to the bottom of my stomach. If not for my strong stomach, my heart would have fallen out of my asshole.

The price dropped!!!! And I was long!!!! I sold in disgust.

Is that bad luck? or just blind confidence in the President of United States? Didn't he say, yesterday, on TV, that the oil speculators would push up the price?

Anyway, the money I wired in is gone, again.

I think you missed the forest for the trees on this one. The remarks by Obama were describing long-term price manipulation, while you are trading a short time frame.

Think about what today's report means from a supply/demand standpoint. An increase in surplus inventory means that currently, supply is exceeding demand. In a free market, this translates to lower prices.

Trying to play the market based on news and reports is a tough game, as one never knows what reaction the "smart money" will have to a given number. Sometimes good news is bad news, and vice versa. I can't tell you who the "smart money" is, but I can tell you that is not you and me.

The trading style you used today is called "fundamental", as opposed to the "techincal style of looking at charts. I gave up a long time ago (and many thousands of dollars ago) trying to trade from fundamentals.

2steps · Apr 18, 2012

Quote from keeptradin':

I think you missed the forest for the trees on this one. The remarks by Obama were describing long-term price manipulation, while you are trading a short time frame.

I would not think, for a split second, that Obama knows the difference between long-term and short-term.

The fact that he uses the word "speculators" indicates he knows nothing about the market, because ALL market participants ARE speculators. Those who put money into stocks are speculators, those who put money into gold are speculators.

I wonder why Obama won't stop the stock price from being pushed up by speculators? They are the same people=speculators in the stock market.

2steps · Apr 18, 2012

Quote from satchel:

What does your mentor have to say about this?

My mentor said to me: "Don't believe a word of Obama, he knows nothing about the financial market."

He also said: "Don't watch CNBC, most of talking heads are either liars or clueless idiots."

keeptradin' · Apr 18, 2012

Quote from 2steps:

I would not think, for a split second, that Obama knows the difference between long-term and short-term.

The fact that he uses the word "speculators" indicates he knows nothing about the market, because ALL market participants ARE speculators. Those who put money into stocks are speculators, those who put money into gold are speculators.

I wonder why Obama won't stop the stock price from being pushed up by speculators? They are the same people=speculators in the stock market.

Sorry bud, just trying to shed some light on why your trade didn't work.

And Obama doesn't need to know the difference, he has people like the Secret Service to point him in the right direction...

Oh, and apologies for misspelling "technical".

keeptradin' · Apr 18, 2012

Quote from 2steps:

My mentor said to me: "Don't believe a word of Obama, he knows nothing about the financial market."

He also said: "Don't watch CNBC, most of talking heads are either liars or clueless idiots."

The best way to use CNBC is to fade whatever they are saying is the way to go...that is a strategy in itself.

2steps · Apr 18, 2012

Quote from keeptradin':

And Obama doesn't need to know the difference, he has people like the Secret Service to point him in the right direction...

I remember I read somewhere that the government has software to monitor online posts, including online search keywords. If a sensitive word is caught by the software, the government will check out the person who makes the post.

Now we talked about Obama, will he send his Secret Service agents to knock on my door?

If the Secret Service agents knock on my door, I will pretend to be a Colombian debt collection agency employee working for the Colombian Whore Association, I will tell them I am here to collect payment that is due for the service rendered in Colombia...

Ghost of Cutten · Apr 19, 2012

Quote from 2steps:

I would not think, for a split second, that Obama knows the difference between long-term and short-term.

The fact that he uses the word "speculators" indicates he knows nothing about the market, because ALL market participants ARE speculators. Those who put money into stocks are speculators, those who put money into gold are speculators.

I wonder why Obama won't stop the stock price from being pushed up by speculators? They are the same people=speculators in the stock market.

Is this a trading journal or yet another bullshit partisan political rant?

How much $ you make in the markets is dependent probably 90% on your own efforts, 9% on luck, and 1% on politics. The subject matter of your posts in a trading journal should follow the same ratio.

FWIW, I think you have no chance to ever be a successful trader, your mentality is all wrong and you have no apparent trading skills or experience. No offence but do yourself a favour and forget trading, just save 10-20% of your income and put it into a 50% bonds 50% stocks low-cost index portfolio, you'll come out way ahead in the long run.

2steps · Apr 19, 2012

Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

Is this a trading journal or yet another bullshit partisan political rant?

How much $ you make in the markets is dependent probably 90% on your own efforts, 9% on luck, and 1% on politics. The subject matter of your posts in a trading journal should follow the same ratio.

FWIW, I think you have no chance to ever be a successful trader, your mentality is all wrong and you have no apparent trading skills or experience. No offence but do yourself a favour and forget trading, just save 10-20% of your income and put it into a 50% bonds 50% stocks low-cost index portfolio, you'll come out way ahead in the long run.

This is a trading journal, not a politics journal. Do not drag people into political arguments. You may be a democrat, you may be a supporter of Obama, but keep your political views to yourself.

Obama chose to get into trading by directly attacking oil traders on national TV. When Obama stepped into trading and talked about "traders" "speculators" "trading oil" "trading technolog" "limit traders' positions" "margin" etc, he became the topic of this journal.

He chose to be part of the trading topic, especially oil trading.

I am not interested in politics, not in Obama, but if he tried to interfere with oil trading, I have to be aware of any actions he is taking against oil trading.

By the way, what is the correct "mentality," since you already know my "mentality is all wrong"?

2steps · Apr 19, 2012

Not much happened today.

I shorted at the pit open time, because the drop following the job data half an hour earlier gave me confidence.

But strangely enough, the pit traders swiftly changed their mind and reversed after a few minutes. I covered with a loss.

Then the 10am ET data came, the market started to go down, but my limit order didn't get filled. So I watched the train leaving the station without me.