2012: The Battle for Survival

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Quote from neke:


Consider that SCTY trade. Placed an order plan to short 1000 shares @ 42.60 which got filled shortly after the market open, after reviewing the news that SolarCity was offering 3.4M shares, of which the CEO was buying a bunch. I did not see that news justifying the pop. Afterwards as the stock zoomed against me, I re-checked the news and found to my amazement that there was a bigger news: SolarCity was raising significantly its guidance for 2014. I felt trapped, and unwilling to accept a loss, and in damage-control mode and seeking to exit at break-even, averaged down (after shutting off my automation) until I had a total of 5000 shares short. Well the rest is history. Was it not over-confidence that made me put a trade plan before reading/considering all the facts?
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Did you do the same thing with scty today?
 
Quote from neke:

Was it not over-confidence that made me put a trade plan before reading/considering all the facts?
.
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Just sounds like a poor plan to me, not an issue of over-confidence. Your opinion of what should or shouldnt justify a pop/drop is not a model you can glean any actionable info from. I think a more robust way to quantify what you are seeing in the price action is the missing piece.

The whole hanging on too long, averaging down until your loss is just out of control is nothing more than you being a human in a shitty trade. We've all done it.
 
I've read all your threads Neke. Great job keeping track of your trading over the years. Ever think of using option synthetics along with buying a lower strike put underneath (or vice versa if youre bearish). This way your risk is defined, less equity is invested into a trade and you still get the same juice in terms of performance?
 
Period Update for weeks 44-47 ended 11/30/2013

Streak of bad months continues, down 3K.

Code: 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Opening Balance:                	 85,181
Net loss for period 		         (3,021)
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance:                   		 82,160


For the Thread Year-to-Date  1/6/2013 - 11/30/2013

Opening Balance:                   	83,156
Net gain		    	        24,354 (Up 29%)
Cash Withdrawal			       (24,900)
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance			        82,160
----------------------


TRADES

TYPE	Exite Date/Time		P/L

STOCK	2013-11-04-12-57-11	-517.49
OPTION	2013-11-05-12-37-18	-495.77
OPTION	2013-11-06-14-22-13	-968.47
STOCK	2013-11-07-10-51-41	-1015.15
OPTION	2013-11-07-14-34-13	235.53
STOCK	2013-11-08-15-56-40	1288.55
STOCK	2013-11-11-11-58-05	-189.38
STOCK	2013-11-11-09-57-43	1788.45
OPTION	2013-11-11-11-50-15	-422.74
OPTION	2013-11-11-11-50-57	-408.09
STOCK	2013-11-12-12-39-03	-76.34
OPTION	2013-11-13-11-15-59	-915.38
STOCK	2013-11-13-09-44-54	1104.82
STOCK	2013-11-13-10-25-06	35.31
STOCK	2013-11-14-11-30-17	920.17
OPTION	2013-11-15-15-49-06	-1384.28
STOCK	2013-11-18-13-32-51	919.09
STOCK	2013-11-19-12-06-58	2537.92
STOCK	2013-11-21-13-30-15	295.28
STOCK	2013-11-21-13-16-09	-1814.63
STOCK	2013-11-21-15-59-09	-788.21
OPTION	2013-11-21-15-28-20	1081.51
STOCK	2013-11-22-12-44-22	-102.35
STOCK	2013-11-22-10-44-33	1123.45
STOCK	2013-11-25-15-51-51	-1575.93
STOCK	2013-11-26-13-59-55	-5460.81
STOCK	2013-11-27-11-25-41	839.77
STOCK	2013-11-27-11-54-43	942.88
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Quote from neke:


Streak of bad months continues, down 3K.
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Of course, after analyzing the trades, there was no bad month. There was 1 bad trade that took the whole month down. You were actually up 2K until you hit that 5K loser and that ended your month badly.

Any good explanation for that trade? The loss is 3 times bigger than any other loss in this month... Why did you let it go down so much?

Also, can we retitle this thread in 3 weeks to 2014?
 
Period Update for final period 11/30/2013 - 1/3/2014 (5 weeks)

Climactic finale to the year, up 21K for the 5 weeks (26%). Biggest monthly performance in a long while. The holiday period was particularly impressive. Seems like almost every trade I touched turned to gold. Was at home on holidays between Xmas and New year, and have to confess did turn off my automation a number of times to take discretionary positions. Glad it all turned out well.

For the year (1/6/2013 - 1/3/2014), I am up 45K (54%). Pleased with the performance, even though lots of work still remain to be done to solidify my man/machine partnership. One thing I have improved dramatically on is the ability to stay away when nothing matches my criteria. I have always said that is the hardest part. For the year, there were 719 trades (including closed-out trades), most of the trades happening during the first part of the year. My target for this year (2014) is 400 trades, categorized as below:

* 100 totally automated trades (no daily manual intervention)
* 300 trades of the man/machine partnership type (daily research off-hours leading to short lists and trading parameters, leaving the machine to execute during market hours)
* Strive to have 0 totally discretionary trades (the ones that require shutting down my automation to avoid closure).


Code: 
Opening Balance:                	 82,160
Net gain for period 		         21,377
Cash Withdrawal				 (2,500)
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance:                   		101,037


For the Thread Year 2013 (1/6/2013 - 1/3/2014)

Opening Balance:                   	83,156
Net gain		    	        45,281 (Up 54%)
Cash Withdrawal			       (27,400)
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance			        101,037
----------------------



TRADES

TYPE	Exit Date/Time		P/L

STOCK	2013-12-02-11-28-20	-396.92
OPTION	2013-12-02-09-30-49	-120.79
OPTION	2013-12-02-14-47-03	-543.27
STOCK	2013-12-03-12-04-10	2753.41
OPTION	2013-12-03-13-51-02	29.2
STOCK	2013-12-03-12-37-44	-627.71
STOCK	2013-12-04-12-06-37	1773.68
STOCK	2013-12-05-12-34-42	865.36
STOCK	2013-12-05-13-05-43	-412.13
OPTION	2013-12-05-15-54-45	-1055.79
STOCK	2013-12-06-09-36-30	-72.01
STOCK	2013-12-06-10-56-08	2761.54
STOCK	2013-12-06-14-23-47	1366.2
STOCK	2013-12-09-14-48-03	-708.6
STOCK	2013-12-11-12-47-12	207.21
STOCK	2013-12-11-14-48-22	-1252.42
STOCK	2013-12-12-11-58-46	-414.77
STOCK	2013-12-13-10-02-48	-2999
STOCK	2013-12-13-15-49-35	-1038.81
STOCK	2013-12-16-11-11-28	2934.68
OPTION	2013-12-16-15-54-31	-1154.25
STOCK	2013-12-18-10-00-37	1772.07
STOCK	2013-12-18-12-25-14	-626.57
STOCK	2013-12-19-11-38-27	285.04
STOCK	2013-12-19-11-53-16	170.17
STOCK	2013-12-20-09-35-34	640.78
STOCK	2013-12-20-09-58-36	1923.56
STOCK	2013-12-20-11-27-09	-654.45
STOCK	2013-12-20-15-18-03	1245.34
STOCK	2013-12-23-12-11-00	48.33
OPTION	2013-12-23-15-58-44	-175.1
STOCK	2013-12-26-15-55-43	5402.32
STOCK	2013-12-27-11-50-00	2299.41
STOCK	2013-12-27-09-31-43	188.83
STOCK	2013-12-30-13-33-14	2088.13
STOCK	2013-12-31-10-42-48	27.67
STOCK	2013-12-31-08-58-47	2139.68
STOCK	2014-01-03-10-49-02	2189.19
STOCK	2014-01-03-12-07-02	517.17
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Nice update and a nice 2013 results. Impressive to return over 50%. Here's to a nice and wonderful 2014 to you.

And you're above $100K!
 
Congrats!! I am not sure if this is true for the rest of the year, but most of your option trades were losers. So you might want to stay clear of those, if this is similar for the rest of the year.

And can you start a new thread for 2014? Good luck for this year....
 
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