I'd be curious to hear about the events that led you to the wisdom in your post.
2012: The Battle for Survival
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I'd be curious to hear about the events that led you to the wisdom in your post.
Don't really know how to explain as well as I do probably not really understand the nature of your question, I have a theory though. Anyway trying to answer as good as I can. Wisdom as you call it is nothing more than applied knowledge and developed skill put at work. Assuming you are actually looking for a recipy rather than for a burned soulmate(hopefully) there are 2 things I consider as important: giving up selfishness and recognizing that there is a gain or at least a directional pointer to every loss. Unveiling my personal story will not get you anywhere as well would it bother most into off topic.
From my personal experience emotions can destroy you, trading needs cold heart and mind. You need to know, cheap margin, cheap commissions , over trading are lossing proposition for a retail trader , if you can learn the basics of supply and demand and can control your emotions, you might succeed in trading.
Neke's sinking feeling in trading has been experienced by myself time and time again, though more so before than now. I think the root issue of all problems is more in reading the market incorrectly than lack of discipline. Averaging down is mostly considered a sin in trading, but if done during the pullback of an up trend it can be a good strategy; but if done during a major down trend it can be disastrous. So the question boils down to being able to differentiate a pullback and a full blown opposite trend. No amount of discipline or risk management can make a trader money if getting the market direction fundamentally wrong. In fact I lost a lot of money being disciplined in the wrong direction.
I have found that when I am right in the direction, being disciplined also comes more naturally and more effortless; but when I am wrong in direction, it is like fighting tooth and nail, easier to throw the discipline out of the window.
In my humble opinion, the focus should always be reading the price action correctly. Even a basic trend line would put JCP clearly in the down column. All said, I also recognize the many thousands of hours a trader needs to put in in order to be in sync with Mr. Market, so it is not easy. I have tremendous respect for Neke as a trader. It is a rare quality to still find the courage to post disappointing results week after week. I wish him great success.
I have found that when I am right in the direction, being disciplined also comes more naturally and more effortless; but when I am wrong in direction, it is like fighting tooth and nail, easier to throw the discipline out of the window.
In my humble opinion, the focus should always be reading the price action correctly. Even a basic trend line would put JCP clearly in the down column. All said, I also recognize the many thousands of hours a trader needs to put in in order to be in sync with Mr. Market, so it is not easy. I have tremendous respect for Neke as a trader. It is a rare quality to still find the courage to post disappointing results week after week. I wish him great success.
All trading is gambling.
You should gamble when you have the best of it, and you should refrain from gambling when you have the worst of it. In this case is the long side clearly had the worst of it, and not only was a bet made with the odds against a favorable outcome, but bet size was increased the worse the odds.
A better strategy is to refrain from betting when you have the worst of it, only make bets when you have the best of it, and adjust bet size to the perceived favorability of your odds (the better you have it, the bigger you bet).
Trading is a no ante game. There is no reason to enter a trade unless you have the best of it. This means trading when the odds in favor of the proposed position are greater than the odds in favor of the opposite position.
There is no such thing as "gambler" mentality. There are weak players and there are strong players. But both are players. There is no "player mentality." Some gamblers bet with an edge while other gamblers bet without an edge. Both are gamblers. There is not a common "mentality," to use your term, between them.
Sure there is:
http://www.njlap.org/AboutGambling/UnderstandingCompulsiveGambling/tabid/75/Default.aspx
"Paul Good, a clinical psychologist in San Francisco, developed 11 warning signs that may reveal whether an investor is actually a gambler in disguise. Anyone who exhibits five or more of these signs may have a gambling problem.....
Some of them, as Neke has shown with his last disastrous trade:
"4. Repeated unsuccessful efforts to stop or control one's market activity (e.g., drawing on accounts previously declared off limits, contradicting or changing limit orders on losses or gains)." He overrode his strategy limits.
"7. After taking losses in the market, continuing to take positions or increasing one's position as a way of getting even." He averaged into the losing position.
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 44/50 ended 11/17/2012
(Belated update)
Horrible week, down 17K (16%). The disaster trade was JCP on 11/12/2012. Was at home that day because my workplace observed a holiday, and seeing JCP down that morning, tried to play the hero and bought 2500 @ 20.00. Immediately shut down my automation (knowing it would have disallowed what I was about to do). The stock kept dropping and I kept buying, until I was long a whopping 16000 shares within one hour of the open. Well the rest is history as the stock closed the day at 18.00. I was down more than 12K. Nothing I could do the rest of the week made sense, as I added another 5K loss.
Now that I have disclosed what happened, I will continue my rest. Will only re-start posting if/when my account balance comes back above 100K. My 5k monthly withdrawals will continue, making it all the more difficult.
Code:Opening Balance: 109,966 Net loss for the week 17,486 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 92,480 Since Inception of Thread 01/18/2012 - 11/17/2012 Opening Balance: 203,729 Net loss (61,249)(Down 30%) Cash Withdrawal (50,000) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 92,480
MY GOD MAN!.. Why are people so transfixed on one method of making money in the markets? IMHO, the lower your time frame the more difficult things get... SWING TRADE..!! ETFs if you don't have time to study stock by stock.. I think more money has been made in the markets swing trading than day trading.. This instant gratification thing kills people... slowly.
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