2012: The Battle for Survival

Option_Attack · Nov 18, 2012

Quote from Daring:

Regardless of the past, something changed in the past years.

Kept on trading even as performance degraded to negative returns.

As is usual, and as many have pointed out, the markets have changed drastically since 2008-9. At least for Neke's style of trading, which sometimes seems similar to mine.

I easily made 110% on a low six-fig account in 2008. But since then I have been up and down. I think I have zeroed in on some thiings that will work most of the time. But time will tell...

Good luck to all.

tradestrong · Nov 18, 2012

Quote from riffrafffpatrol:

As I said Pekelo-- a reason could easily be to promote ET. Think outside the box on this...

I'm done with Neke... he has helped prove my point with his most recent post.

That doesn't make any sense. Why would ET have a fake thread where the OP loses a ton of money? It would seem that would discourage people from trading...NOT encourage them. So your logic is amiss on this.

Businessman · Nov 18, 2012

Quote from riffrafffpatrol:

... it's about promoting ET and readership.

Neke has been posting for over five years. His posts have a consistent history. To maintain a lie over hundreds of posts for over half a decade without making a mistake would be very difficult and time consuming. There are many easier ways for ET to promote readership than try to maintain this type of facade for so long.

HurricaneUS · Nov 19, 2012

So what have we learned from this little experiment called Neke?

My take:

He never had an edge. Plenty of people were telling him this over and over and over

Without an edge, the market will systematically and methodically part a fool from his money.

It's actually sad to see (or comical depending on how you want to look at it).....but I can say I told you so...

colonial dr · Nov 19, 2012

Quote from HurricaneUS:

So what have we learned from this little experiment called Neke?

My take:

He never had an edge. Plenty of people were telling him this over and over and over

Without an edge, the market will systematically and methodically part a fool from his money.

It's actually sad to see (or comical depending on how you want to look at it).....but I can say I told you so...

You hit the nail on its head- as usual.

Neke does not listen to others. It is very bizarre he made this thread without listening to anybody. Maybe he made it so somebody would message him a profitable automated system. That would confirm why he would keep posting without listening. This trader kid who lives in my building has the same thing.

guy990opl · Nov 22, 2012

So sick and tired of all the trolls claiming that Neke is a fake.

Are they more real because they registered a few years ago and now have over 1000 posts of nothingness under the belt ?

As a trader myself I have been following all his Journals over the years and I know he is for real because at the end of the week I could look at his performance and compare it to the market so it was easy for someone to say ..." Oh here is how he made money or this is why and when he lost it. " He used to post his trades as well.

I can totally relate to what's happening to him and I am sure every trader ( not troll ) out here can as well. We have all experienced this atrocious feeling. We should ask ourselves if it is more important for us to be right or to make money.

Like everyone else I lost money and made money, however what really allowed me to do this full time ( meaning that I have no other job ) is:

1) A capitalized account

2) An almost systematic approach, 75% systematic 25% discretionary

3) A good mentor

Neke said that he would like to be systematic, yet he didn't do it.

In my humble opinion discretionary trading rarely works because we can't be right consistently. My biggest improvement started the moment I traded systematically. It helped me a great deal to avoid emotional and financial burnouts.

I no longer care what the market does nor I need to know where it is going to go next once my system is in place. This year my performance is slightly positive, but I take comfort knowing that as long as I have money to trade there will be always another opportunity.

I should also note that the vast majority of traders with a system do not have the discipline to follow it. While discipline is not a sufficient condition to win, it is a necessary condition.

9 out of 10 traders lose money, good traders have an edge. If you don't have an edge you are a gambler.

Keeping your emotions in check at all times is not the only edge, but it is an edge that only a few people have.

To Neke: Thank You for the opportunity to read your journal, you are a legend and it takes big brass balls to continue posting when the numbers are red.

If discretionary trading is no longer working consider letting it go. There is a huge difference between BEING wrong and STAYING wrong.

Stop trading for a while is one of the smartest thing to do. Good Luck.

Daring · Nov 22, 2012

Without sounding antagonistic.

This is what happens when something that used to work stops working and the trader refuses to accept what happened along the process.

This is why it's good to keep statistics of losing period, and when the losing period extends itself over the mean by a wide margin to immediately become defensive and reduce size to a minimum until more investigation is applied.

gmst · Nov 22, 2012

Quote from Daring:

This is why it's good to keep statistics of losing period, and when the losing period extends itself over the mean by a wide margin to immediately become defensive and reduce size to a minimum until more investigation is applied.

Words of wisdom for everyone reading this thread.

I have a rule that once my DD in a strategy exceeds maximum historical DD, I stop trading the strategy and start trading it again only when it makes a new equity high.

A better way is to do multiple samples of historical trades, look at worst 2%-5% DD and stop trading only when that DD is exceeded.

neke · Nov 24, 2012

Weekly Update for week 44/50 ended 11/17/2012
(Belated update)

Horrible week, down 17K (16%). The disaster trade was JCP on 11/12/2012. Was at home that day because my workplace observed a holiday, and seeing JCP down that morning, tried to play the hero and bought 2500 @ 20.00. Immediately shut down my automation (knowing it would have disallowed what I was about to do). The stock kept dropping and I kept buying, until I was long a whopping 16000 shares within one hour of the open. Well the rest is history as the stock closed the day at 18.00. I was down more than 12K. Nothing I could do the rest of the week made sense, as I added another 5K loss.

Now that I have disclosed what happened, I will continue my rest. Will only re-start posting if/when my account balance comes back above 100K. My 5k monthly withdrawals will continue, making it all the more difficult.

Code:

Opening Balance:                	109,966
Net loss for the week 		         17,486
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance:                   		 92,480


Since Inception of Thread   01/18/2012 - 11/17/2012

Opening Balance:                   	203,729
Net loss 			        (61,249)(Down 30%)
Cash Withdrawal				(50,000)
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance				 92,480

Daring · Nov 24, 2012

Code:
Quote from neke:

Weekly Update for week 44/50 ended 11/17/2012
(Belated update)

Horrible week, down 17K (16%). The disaster trade was JCP on 11/12/2012. Was at home that day because my workplace observed a holiday, and seeing JCP down that morning, tried to play the hero and bought 2500 @ 20.00. Immediately shut down my automation (knowing it would have disallowed what I was about to do). The stock kept dropping and I kept buying, until I was long a whopping 16000 shares within one hour of the open. Well the rest is history as the stock closed the day at 18.00. I was down more than 12K. Nothing I could do the rest of the week made sense, as I added another 5K loss.

Now that I have disclosed what happened, I will continue my rest. Will only re-start posting if/when my account balance comes back above 100K. My 5k monthly withdrawals will continue, making it all the more difficult.

Code:

Opening Balance: 109,966 Net loss for the week 17,486 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 92,480 Since Inception of Thread 01/18/2012 - 11/17/2012 Opening Balance: 203,729 Net loss (61,249)(Down 30%) Cash Withdrawal (50,000) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 92,480

You got a disease, it's called averaging down.

You need to find the cure.