2012: The Battle for Survival

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I am starting to think this guy is a fake....

some spectacular up years, then years and years of mediocre results and losing streaks....

plus he goes to business meetings and seems to multi-task at a regular full-time job in the face of these massive positions he is supposedly holding.
 
Neke,
Thank you very much for keep posting. Please do not get too ted frustrated with your trading. We had very similar path. I started with small money 4 years ago and until last year, I made it pretty big (a little bigger than your peak account). The only difference is I haven't traded much at all this year because I feel my method does not work for this market anymore. Yes, RTM is a big part of my method, but I also follow the trend some times.

Yes, I would love to get back to trading, but only when I feel I still have an edge for this market.

Yes, commission and slippage are big part. I remember I mentioned that to you, but probably my voice was buried in the noise in this thread, and seems you want to learn the lesson by a hard way by yourself.

If I can suggest, I would say stop trading options. It is very bad. The commissions and slippage are very high, but the time decay is more deadly. Option is just too expensive nowadays. 10 years ago, option was a good way to make good money overnight, but not anymore.

Cheers,
 
Quote from EliteTraderNYC:

some spectacular up years, then years and years of mediocre results and losing streaks....
More...

It is called losing your edge. Happens all the time. Certain opportunities are only temporary. It is also possible he had the right strategy for the right time, but the times have changed...
 
Quote from freewilly:

Neke,
Thank you very much for keep posting. Please do not get too ted frustrated with your trading. We had very similar path. I started with small money 4 years ago and until last year, I made it pretty big (a little bigger than your peak account). The only difference is I haven't traded much at all this year because I feel my method does not work for this market anymore. Yes, RTM is a big part of my method, but I also follow the trend some times.

Yes, I would love to get back to trading, but only when I feel I still have an edge for this market.

Yes, commission and slippage are big part. I remember I mentioned that to you, but probably my voice was buried in the noise in this thread, and seems you want to learn the lesson by a hard way by yourself.

If I can suggest, I would say stop trading options. It is very bad. The commissions and slippage are very high, but the time decay is more deadly. Option is just too expensive nowadays. 10 years ago, option was a good way to make good money overnight, but not anymore.

Cheers,
More...

There is a very simple solution to the time decay issue-- just trade deep in the money .90 or higher deltas--- virtually the entire premium is intrinsic and therefore the effects of time decay and implied volatility are nil.

In addition... there is a side benefit-- commission costs will automatically go way down due to the contract quantity reduction deep itm allows- since you will be capturing virtually the entire movement in the underlying in the option premium. In essence this strategy acts as a surrogate for the stock - but with considerably less capital required and therefore offers much less systemic black swan risk... while still offering the benefit of leverage and much higher return on capital. And with the proper basket of underlyings that have highly liquid options with tight bid/ask spreads - slippage should be a non issue.

The problem here in the big picture however that Neke has is not one of commissions and/or slippage... its that he has no edge. If one concentrates on taking proven high probability, high profit potential and low risk trades setups--- the trigger should be taken more often... not less! More trades with an edge.. NOT LESS! Commissions are merely a cost of doing business... with a sound business plan - expenses take care of themselves. Commish is not the issue period.

Why does Vegas succeed? Because they have an edge. They understand that each individual hand of blackjack for instance comes with complete uncertainty and that any given hand could incur a significant loss to the house...however they also know that regardless-- over a statistically meaningful number of hands they will always come out ahead. Why? Because the probabilities are on their side base on their rules... therefore they have an edge. They want their casinos full... they want every single blackjack seat occupied... they want more hands dealt... not less! So too in trading with an edge-- more trades- not less.

Neke had proven at this point he has no edge... and up to this point has been unwilling to share any trade details. Only if he does so will he have an opportunity for improvement via critique from those on this forum who do have an edge and that can provide suggestions for areas to adjust.

The suggestion above using deep itm options is a start.. one that doesnt require trade detail. Here is another--- one must properly position size with the same 1R (max dollar risk amount per trade) and risk:reward potential of 1:2 or better....on EACH AND EVERY TRADE. Do NOT deviate from this formula... ever! Neke does NOT do this. Big problem right there.

From here- it's up to Neke. Trade detail will uncover where and why edge is missing.

Of course if Neke is merely a fictional character-- well - it is certainly understandable why trade detail would be a very tedious and major problem for the author of Neke to deal with.
 
Neke- do not forget to be focused when you trade. Mistakes like fat finger orders, software failures and other ordeals cost traders lots of money.
 
Quote from riffrafffpatrol:

There is a very simple solution to the time decay issue-- just trade deep in the money .90 or higher deltas--- virtually the entire premium is intrinsic and therefore the effects of time decay and implied volatility are nil.

In addition... there is a side benefit-- commission costs will automatically go way down due to the contract quantity reduction deep itm allows- since you will be capturing virtually the entire movement in the underlying in the option premium. In essence this strategy acts as a surrogate for the stock - but with considerably less capital required and therefore offers much less systemic black swan risk... while still offering the benefit of leverage and much higher return on capital. And with the proper basket of underlyings that have highly liquid options with tight bid/ask spreads - slippage should be a non issue.

The problem here in the big picture however that Neke has is not one of commissions and/or slippage... its that he has no edge. If one concentrates on taking proven high probability, high profit potential and low risk trades setups--- the trigger should be taken more often... not less! More trades with an edge.. NOT LESS! Commissions are merely a cost of doing business... with a sound business plan - expenses take care of themselves. Commish is not the issue period.

Why does Vegas succeed? Because they have an edge. They understand that each individual hand of blackjack for instance comes with complete uncertainty and that any given hand could incur a significant loss to the house...however they also know that regardless-- over a statistically meaningful number of hands they will always come out ahead. Why? Because the probabilities are on their side base on their rules... therefore they have an edge. They want their casinos full... they want every single blackjack seat occupied... they want more hands dealt... not less! So too in trading with an edge-- more trades- not less.

Neke had proven at this point he has no edge... and up to this point has been unwilling to share any trade details. Only if he does so will he have an opportunity for improvement via critique from those on this forum who do have an edge and that can provide suggestions for areas to adjust.

The suggestion above using deep itm options is a start.. one that doesnt require trade detail. Here is another--- one must properly position size with the same 1R (max dollar risk amount per trade) and risk:reward potential of 1:2 or better....on EACH AND EVERY TRADE. Do NOT deviate from this formula... ever! Neke does NOT do this. Big problem right there.

From here- it's up to Neke. Trade detail will uncover where and why edge is missing.

Of course if Neke is merely a fictional character-- well - it is certainly understandable why trade detail would be a very tedious and major problem for the author of Neke to deal with.
More...

WHAT? LOL. Why are you asking for trade details? That's his own struggle. If he doesn't want to share it then that's his business. He's not asking for your help nor does he want it. This journal is for his own sake.

He has been documenting his trades for years on ET and you have what a couple hundred posts? And you want to command more respect and credibility? Come on now, get real.
 
Weekly Update for week 42/50 ended 11/3/2012


Horrible week, down 5.8K (4.8%). Two ill-fated trades using same strategy lost 7.3K, and wrecked the week. Market seems to change on a dime. Have used this strategy since earnings season started and got 6.4K over many trades, seeing it lost in two trades is just too startling. More studies over the week-end. Took out 5K for the month just ended.

For the five weeks ended 11/3/2012, performance was flat (-$101) against a target of +6K. Not good.

Confidence down, but will set a target of +4K for the next four weeks (11/3/2012 - 11/31/2012).



Code: 
Opening Balance:                	120,710
Net loss for the week 		         (5,761)
Cash Withdrawal				 (5,000)
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance:                   		109,949


Since Inception of Thread   01/18/2012 - 11/3/2012

Opening Balance:                   	203,729
Net loss 			        (43,780)(Down 21.5%)
Cash Withdrawal				(50,000)
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance				109,949

attachment.php
 
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