2012: The Battle for Survival

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Quote from nillionaire:

That means each trade lost around 1K. Seems like really tight stops for an account your size.
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1k doesn't indicate where his stop is it just indicates his position risk ie. Less than1% which is good. Just shame his win rate is rubbish!
 
neke,

How the hell can you continue to suffer like this?

You maybe thinking that you have a full time job.. so its not the end of the world if your account goes to zero, after all you made and continue to make lots of withdrawals so you will always be up from where you started.

But you cant think like that.

You should be trading as if your life depended on it.

And you should be trading very defensively at this stage.

I dont think you are treating trading as a serious business and this is why you are struggling.
 
Quote from southall:



I dont think you are treating trading as a serious business and this is why you are struggling.
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Maybe he has no edge and he's trying his best but still losing. I dont think most daytraders can now survive in this HFT infested trading world. Most men cant beat computers.
 
"If wishes were horses, I would like to see the distribution of discretionary trades below for 2012."

code:
Conviction NumberOfTrades
HC 20
MC 80
LC 320


This is completely backwards, does not everyone agree?

Should be:

Conviction NumberOfTrades
HC 320
MC 0
LC 0

HC is an edge.

"Second there is still a strategy that I have excluded (right the week-end of that post) because it has been profitable even in the last two years. There is no need throwing out the baby with the bath water. The system knows how to identify a trade based on that strategy."

So why not trade this strategy ONLY? That is an edge!


MarketOwl, "Maybe he has no edge and he's trying his best but still losing. I dont think most daytraders can now survive in this HFT infested trading world. Most men cant beat computers."

Not "maybe". I think it's NO EDGE, because "MC" trades are "coin flip" and "LC" trades are "slot machines" and according to his chart he trades more of those than "HC" which means "edge".

A good trader told me a way to judge your trading. The high frequency traders HFT will have profit every day. This is professional realm of trading, big players with big money. They are a casino. No matter what everyone does, they profit even though it's tiny profits, very slim edge, fraction of pennies, they skim off the top with big volume. Maybe a casino has 1% edge, not much, but are BIG winners with volume. That is the HFT edge.

Regular guys are day traders, swing traders, investors. They have to figure out an edge to make money and this trader told me rule of thumb, use a window of time to show regular profit and know you ave an edge.

Day traders don't hve to make profit every day but should make profit every week.
Swing traders who hold position for a few days at a time don't have to make profit every week, but should make profit every month.
Swing traders who hold positions for weeks don't have to make profit every month, but should make profit every quarter.
Investors should make profit/loss similar to the indexes if they have their money in funds or with an advisor, or better than the index if they manage their own investments.

I looks like neke is making enough trades a week that he is a day trader or maybe short swing trader. If there he has an edge he will make profit every week or every month at the very least.

I see he posts about discretionary and automated. It shouldn't matter at all. If he has an edge and automates it, his account is profitable. If he has an edge and trades it himself, his account is profitable. If he is interfering with the trades, then he has no edge. If he's trading his edge and is losing more than a couple months in a row, then the edge is market specific and is now gone.

I was taught to trade price action so that isn't market specific. But if someone is trading something like fading rallies in bear market and the market turns, that edge will be gone and you have to change to buying dips or you will lose money or not make much money.

Both of those edges will be gone when the market is in a big range. I think the market is in a big range now, so a lot of edges that worked well in the bear market of 2008 and bull turnabout in 2009 is now gone for those traders.
 
Quote from wonereheb:

"If wishes were horses, I would like to see the distribution of discretionary trades below for 2012."

code:
Conviction NumberOfTrades
HC 20
MC 80
LC 320


This is completely backwards, does not everyone agree?

Should be:

Conviction NumberOfTrades
HC 320
MC 0
LC 0

HC is an edge.

"Second there is still a strategy that I have excluded (right the week-end of that post) because it has been profitable even in the last two years. There is no need throwing out the baby with the bath water. The system knows how to identify a trade based on that strategy."

So why not trade this strategy ONLY? That is an edge!


MarketOwl, "Maybe he has no edge and he's trying his best but still losing. I dont think most daytraders can now survive in this HFT infested trading world. Most men cant beat computers."

Not "maybe". I think it's NO EDGE, because "MC" trades are "coin flip" and "LC" trades are "slot machines" and according to his chart he trades more of those than "HC" which means "edge".

A good trader told me a way to judge your trading. The high frequency traders HFT will have profit every day. This is professional realm of trading, big players with big money. They are a casino. No matter what everyone does, they profit even though it's tiny profits, very slim edge, fraction of pennies, they skim off the top with big volume. Maybe a casino has 1% edge, not much, but are BIG winners with volume. That is the HFT edge.

Regular guys are day traders, swing traders, investors. They have to figure out an edge to make money and this trader told me rule of thumb, use a window of time to show regular profit and know you ave an edge.

Day traders don't hve to make profit every day but should make profit every week.
Swing traders who hold position for a few days at a time don't have to make profit every week, but should make profit every month.
Swing traders who hold positions for weeks don't have to make profit every month, but should make profit every quarter.
Investors should make profit/loss similar to the indexes if they have their money in funds or with an advisor, or better than the index if they manage their own investments.

I looks like neke is making enough trades a week that he is a day trader or maybe short swing trader. If there he has an edge he will make profit every week or every month at the very least.

I see he posts about discretionary and automated. It shouldn't matter at all. If he has an edge and automates it, his account is profitable. If he has an edge and trades it himself, his account is profitable. If he is interfering with the trades, then he has no edge. If he's trading his edge and is losing more than a couple months in a row, then the edge is market specific and is now gone.

I was taught to trade price action so that isn't market specific. But if someone is trading something like fading rallies in bear market and the market turns, that edge will be gone and you have to change to buying dips or you will lose money or not make much money.

Both of those edges will be gone when the market is in a big range. I think the market is in a big range now, so a lot of edges that worked well in the bear market of 2008 and bull turnabout in 2009 is now gone for those traders.
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Well said. You obviously know your business...
 
A while back when i was bored i decided to trawl neke's entire 2009 journal to get an incite into how he made the 210k that year. What i found was even though he is a day trader he made the majority of that years profit on half a dozen or so trades. These were enormous winning trades of the order 30-40k!! Which is fine usually as having a number of big winners is usually key to success, however typically those big winners will be ones you let run or pressed.. Neke's big winners were typically taken in massive size over a hour time frame!!! Should we call that luck..??
 
Quote from leonarda:

A while back when i was bored i decided to trawl neke's entire 2009 journal to get an incite into how he made the 210k that year. What i found was even though he is a day trader he made the majority of that years profit on half a dozen or so trades. These were enormous winning trades of the order 30-40k!! Which is fine usually as having a number of big winners is usually key to success, however typically those big winners will be ones you let run or pressed.. Neke's big winners were typically taken in massive size over a hour time frame!!! Should we call that luck..??
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It's interesting how I made money too of the 4 hour timeframe until I went down to 5 min tf.Even when make money over 5 min tf with the great amount of trades it is the same or less,(but was never greater!)then I was making over 4 hour tf with a couple of trades.
 
Quote from wonereheb:


Both of those edges will be gone when the market is in a big range. I think the market is in a big range now, so a lot of edges that worked well in the bear market of 2008 and bull turnabout in 2009 is now gone for those traders.
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Regardless of whether the market is in a range...a massive bull or massive bear-- there will ALWAYS be an edge for active day traders-- there are certain strategies that work ALL the time in the right equities.
 
Quote from riffrafffpatrol:

Regardless of whether the market is in a range...a massive bull or massive bear-- there will ALWAYS be an edge for active day traders-- there are certain strategies that work ALL the time in the right equities.
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Well yeah something always clearly works : in hindsight.
 
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