Dear Neke,
Congratulations on the persistence, and for not blowing up through the past few weeks.
I believe you will lose all of your money and will be out of trading, unless you decide to continue on trading a small $5,000 account and spend considerable time practicing and looking for a solid automated system. Of all the people in your shoes, every single one I've known had this happened to them. I also think you should expect potential relationship, social and obviously personal stress in the near future. Although that's just a general guess.
You are not a good trader - scratch that, you ****ing suck. You would be fired in no time on a bank floor. Yes you don't work on a bank floor, but you are also competing with the same people. Think about that-THE SAME PEOPLE. All of the Wall Street boys, all of the London wizards, all of the investment banks making big swing moves, all of the HFT that takes the market inefficiencies away. You work in a comfortable home office, however you are still on the same playing ground.
This absolutely does not mean you can't do it, however you are in no shape to be trading now. It is starkly obvious you need to step away now. If you don't, I would label it as a psychological problem of some kind-however I'm not a phd psychoanalyst. No human can turn around an account like you are dreaming of doing immediately after suffering a massive drawdown,
just from the emotional stand point. What makes you think you can end a two+ year disaster in just 7 days? Do you really believe next week will be the first week of stable profit factors and a nice profit-drawdown ratio? If you don't want to ask yourself this (I would be reluctant to do it too, and so would everyone) - I will tell it to you, without any bias, bs or sugar - ready?
You will not be profitable this month. You won't be profitable next month, even if you do take the correct steps (which won't involve trading). Most importantly, you certainly won't have turned this negative path around on a dime next week. No, your nightmare won't be over in an instant. It will just go on, just how Mr. market likes it - in a sadistic way.
What you decide to do after stepping away from trading is up to you - you have allot of options, some of which are hidden in the mountain of garbage posts in this thread. Take a step back for at least a couple of days, then find a psychologist (everyone does it, for good and bad reasons) and then a trading mentor. No this isn't a fifth grade teaching task - find someone who has possibly been through something similar, and formulate a simple way that will trade your still large enough account to consistent returns. You don't need a very profitable system or setup, just some consistency and leverage will provide all of the money you will ever need in your family's life. You probably don't need to change much of your trading-just some extremely critical execution measures and some psychological support from a professional and a fellow trader.
Your past performance is little indication of how you will do in the future, as you have possibly found out yourself. After one great day, you can just as easily lose it all on the next one. On top of that, based on what others have said of your previous profitable years, your trading back then was total crap in my opinion.
Do your self, your health and your family a favor - step aside this quarter and much of next quarter, if not longer. Have a plan for some other venture - a job or a small business you want to start. I don't know how to be any more clear to you Neke - it is as simple as this: you will end your account forever in a few months (this year or next year), or you will do something else that will likely avoid that. Good luck Neke.
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 18/50 ended 5/19/2012
Disastrous week, down 13.2K (8.2%).
Last week I was hoping I could have a break-out week, but rather ended with a break-down. Was having a modestly losing week until Friday. Then at 245pm, with barely over an hour to close of trading, and options expiration, I thought I could write an OTM option and quickly collect a little money to reduce my deficit - against my earlier resolution never to write any option. With SPY coming close to 130, I thought that would provide some support to the market and ensure some rebounce into the close. Evil Fortune directed me to GOOG, then at 613, sold 10 GOOG May 19 610 puts @0.70, hoping to capture $700. One hour later, battered and bruised, I was covering @ 10. Nearly 10K lost in a bid to capture $700.
So finally I am putting a complete STOP on ALL DISCRETIONARY trading during the trading day. Lets see how fast I could get all my ideas automated. Till then back to regular work while the algos do their work.
Code:
Opening Balance: 160,601
Net loss for the week 13,199
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Net Balance: 147,402
Since Inception of Thread 01/18/2012 - 05/19/2012
Opening Balance: 203,729
Net loss (33,327)(Down 16%)
Cash Withdrawal (23,000)
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Net Balance 147,402
