2012: The Battle for Survival

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Quote from flipside21:

If the odds are against you, such as when gambling in Vegas, the best strategy is to put everything on one gamble.

If you have a consistent advantage, then you want to always bet a size that doesn't cause ruin.
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Subconsciously, a trader with negative edge realizes this and tends to swing for the fences. But in the long run the result is the same unless he learns something new in the meanwhile.
 
Don't think his past success was luck. He had something that tilted trades in his favor in some way. I think he's just stuck on thinking that this edge didn't go away. It's failure to adapt rather than just being lucky.

Anyone know anything about his trading method? I feel that if you can interpret price correctly you can't be a multi year loser. He must use something besides price actoin as his edge....
 
Quote from masterm1ne:

Don't think his past success was luck. He had something that tilted trades in his favor in some way. I think he's just stuck on thinking that this edge didn't go away. It's failure to adapt rather than just being lucky.

Anyone know anything about his trading method? I feel that if you can interpret price correctly you can't be a multi year loser. He must use something besides price actoin as his edge....
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Any strategy that is tremendously profitable will bound to be discovered and exploited to the point it loses its profitability.

Similarly, there are times when price-action based systems lose their effectiveness.
 
Quote from neke:

I have been thinking about this lately - eliminating LC trades and putting more effort to identifying a few extra HC and MC trades. This is how I look at it. A single HC trade (with average 2.50 PF) is worth about 15 LC trades (with a mean PF of say 1.10) based on similar sizing. But given I am willing to risk 4 times for an HC trade vs an LC trade, one HC trade might end up being worth 45-60 LC trades. That means the 320 LC trades are at best equal to say 6 or 7 HC trades. That is too little for too much activity being involved with them. Instead I should conserve my energy (each position requires identification/initiation/monitoring/exit) and devote them to looking for HC/MC opportunities. So yes, at the end of the year I might have 30 HC and maybe 120 MC trades, which would be worth more than the earllier scenario.
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Hello Neke,

I am glad that I was successful in planting above idea in your mind and your above post suggested that you liked the idea and were going to adopt it. Your above observation is spot on. I am curious how is it going on above? Are you finding concentrating on HC trades is being helpful for your trading, especially for the drawdown?

Maybe I am wrong but from your on-going drawdown, it seems to me that you have still not been able to implement above approach in your trading, possibly due to multiple engagements and different priorities. I am convinced that modifying your trading using above approach will help you tremendously.

Best Wishes,
GMST

P.S. In my very humble opinion, the suggestion given by another poster wherein he mentioned trading a 10k account for few weeks is a fantastic suggestion. Once you get your rhythm back using the small account, you will be able to quickly size up and go back to your full trading account. This approach will definitely mean almost no earnings to speak of say for next 2 months, but this approach will allow you to re-tool and lubricate yourself for the take-off.
 
Quote from gmst:

P.S. In my very humble opinion, the suggestion given by another poster wherein he mentioned trading a 10k account for few weeks is a fantastic suggestion. Once you get your rhythm back using the small account, you will be able to quickly size up and go back to your full trading account. This approach will definitely mean almost no earnings to speak of say for next 2 months, but this approach will allow you to re-tool and lubricate yourself for the take-off.
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The thing is, after trading a 200k account, 10k will seem peanuts and therefore might cause him to take on more risk than he should (relative to the account size). This in entirely psychological.
I'm curious whether his real trades perform as they had in the simulations, that is the number 1 priority in the systematic approach (which he is now focused on).
 
Quote from HurricaneUS:

+1


..this is not rocket science...there has been some very good advice here lately......
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Look back to posts a year ago, we were warning this guy to cut back and stop shooting craps. doubtful he is going to listen now.
 
Wow, 8 pages of responses since Neke posted his results on Friday.

I for one hope that all of you guys trying to play Monday morning quarterback would just shut the hell up and let Neke trade.

Do you really all need to dump on him like this ? Good lord, half of you guys are really vicious. I wouldnt be surprised if he doesnt post again.

I know you all are trying to help, but seriously , you all are tripping over yourselves trying to "save" him.

Let him trade and learn on his own ! If you all are so good, start your own journal so everyone can berate you constantly. Geez
 
Quote from d08:

The thing is, after trading a 200k account, 10k will seem peanuts and therefore might cause him to take on more risk than he should (relative to the account size). This in entirely psychological.
I'm curious whether his real trades perform as they had in the simulations, that is the number 1 priority in the systematic approach (which he is now focused on).
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you're exactly right here, and this is where he needs some mental strength, which is half the problem with trading...
 
Quote from zanek:

Wow, 8 pages of responses since Neke posted his results on Friday.

I for one hope that all of you guys trying to play Monday morning quarterback would just shut the hell up and let Neke trade.

Do you really all need to dump on him like this ? Good lord, half of you guys are really vicious. I wouldnt be surprised if he doesnt post again.

I know you all are trying to help, but seriously , you all are tripping over yourselves trying to "save" him.

Let him trade and learn on his on ! If you all are so good, start your own journal so everyone can berate you constantly. Geez
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That was my experience with a journal as well.
 
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