2012: The Battle for Survival

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Congrats on the great week!

Are you able to find any correlations to the markets that explain your great performance you're having now vs the poorer performance you experience in the recent past? Is it a function of the markets, ie. are they behaving more predictable, or maybe some other factor?
 
Quote from jedwards:

Congrats on the great week!

Are you able to find any correlations to the markets that explain your great performance you're having now vs the poorer performance you experience in the recent past? Is it a function of the markets, ie. are they behaving more predictable, or maybe some other factor?
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Tis the other factor, being us or this case Neke. Positive or negative results from trading are from what we do, or don't do. It matters not what the market, futures, indices, individual stocks, etc do. It is our belief and subsequent action, or lack thereof that determines outcome. It is that simple, and yet complex. As constantly learning oneself, to better realize the beliefs, biases, and filters we use to make choices or not.
 
Quote from neke:

Weekly Update for week 9/50 ended 3/17/2012

Great week, up 14K (7.5%).

Most of the action this week is centred in AAPL options. Scored 2 out of 4, but the winners far outsized the losers. Faded on Tues (bought AAPL PUT), lost 4.2K. Faded again on Wed (triggered trade, albeit on smaller size since I was away all day), surpised to see the stock up 21pts at end of day, lost 5.8K, Faded the final gap up on Thursday, this time hit it right making +12K. Long CALL the morning sell-off on Fri, again +13K. Pleased there is no more case of averaging down (or it could have been worse on Tues/Wed).

Code: 
Opening Balance:                	191,307
Net gain for the week 		         14,371
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance:                   		205,678


Since Inception of Thread   01/18/2012 - 03/17/2012

Opening Balance:                   	203,729
Net gain 			         13,949 (up 6.8%)
Cash Withdrawal				(12,000)
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance				205,678

attachment.php
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Who's better then you Neke. Great job! Stick to your disciplines, don't let the doubling down creep back in with your new found confidence, and the streak will continue. Looking forward to seeing you make a strong comeback.
 
Quote from mastacoli71:

Who's better then you Neke. Great job! Stick to your disciplines, don't let the doubling down creep back in with your new found confidence, and the streak will continue. Looking forward to seeing you make a strong comeback.
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I'll + 1 that!!:cool: :cool:
 
Quote from jedwards:

Congrats on the great week!

Are you able to find any correlations to the markets that explain your great performance you're having now vs the poorer performance you experience in the recent past? Is it a function of the markets, ie. are they behaving more predictable, or maybe some other factor?
More...
I have probably no straightforward answer. For one thing, I believe my putting the automated check on averaging down has saved me from the excessive loss that such brings about. When I average down and incur a bigger than normal loss, the tendency is to have a loss of confidence, and not step up to take the next great trade when it shows up. For this week, I could probably have lost big on Wed, and not summoned enough courage to play on Thurs and Fri. So the loss is not just limited to the loss on the trade, but the psychological effect thereafter. Secondly, I am putting more effort into defining what is working and what is not working and devoting more energy into what is working/avoiding what does not. But hey, it is still too early to say all is back great.
 
Weekly Update for week 10/50 ended 3/24/2012

Negative week, down 4.8K (2.3%).

Too many trades taken. Not many clear opportunities. I will have to avoid this tendency to overtrade following a good week.

Code: 
Opening Balance:                	205,678
Net loss for the week 		          4,817
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance:                   		200,861


Since Inception of Thread   01/18/2012 - 03/24/2012

Opening Balance:                   	203,729
Net gain 			          9,132 (up 4.5%)
Cash Withdrawal				(12,000)
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance				200,861

attachment.php
 
Quote from neke:

Weekly Update for week 10/50 ended 3/24/2012

Negative week, down 4.8K (2.3%).

Too many trades taken. Not many clear opportunities. I will have to avoid this tendency to overtrade following a good week.

Code: 
Opening Balance:                	205,678
Net loss for the week 		          4,817
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance:                   		200,861


Since Inception of Thread   01/18/2012 - 03/24/2012

Opening Balance:                   	203,729
Net gain 			          9,132 (up 4.5%)
Cash Withdrawal				(12,000)
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance				200,861

attachment.php
More...


That's actually pretty good because it's now beginning to look like your losing weeks are smaller than your winning weeks instead of the other way around......good job!
 
Quote from neke:

Weekly Update for week 10/50 ended 3/24/2012

Negative week, down 4.8K (2.3%).

attachment.php
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Normal when you have a good run. Remember this when you take trades next week. Don't let it get out of control again. Stick to your disciplines. That's what got you on this most recent run. Good luck.
 
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