2012: The Battle for Survival

FreakofNature · Feb 24, 2012

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Quote from neke:

Weekly Update for week 6/50 ended 2/25/2012

Appalling week, down 15K (7.7%).

The disaster was on Wed with FIRE. Shorted at 41.78 as the stock popped at the open, added more at 42.7, and more at 43.3, total 7000 shares. Closed near the end of day at 45.3, losing 15K. Shows how easy it is to destroy when I go outside the boundaries of what is allowed. First the strategy is one of those that have been disallowed. Second the total size exceeded the permissible maximum on a trade. My system could have closed the positions immediately on either count, but alas that was a day the system chose to malfunction: apparently the socket I was using to send orders got broken. Rest of the week was spent bouncing up and down.

Code:

2012-02-22 09:35:45:Autoclosing disallowed setup:FIRE 2012-02-22 09:35:45:Closing Position: 2012-02-22 09:35:45:COVER 3000 FIRE ... 2012-02-22 09:35:46:ERROR:Order ID: - An account id is required for this order.

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Opening Balance: 198,303 Net loss for the week 15,291 ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance: 183,012 Since Inception of Thread 01/18/2012 - 02/25/2012 Opening Balance: 203,729 Net loss (14,717) (down 7.2%) Cash Withdrawal (6,000) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 183,012

Neke,

In my humble opinion, it's better to use a bigger stop than to add to a losing trade.

tenthousandmen · Feb 24, 2012

183,012

Zzoom · Feb 25, 2012

Quote from neke:

Shows how easy it is to destroy when I go outside the boundaries of what is allowed.

First the strategy is one of those that have been disallowed.

Second the total size exceeded the permissible maximum on a trade.

Yoda: "That placeâ¦ is strong with the dark side of the Force. A domain of evil it is. In you must go."
Luke: "What's in there?"
Yoda: "Only what you take with you."

Millionaire · Feb 25, 2012

Neke's weekly P&L so far for 2012:

Week 1: (14,450)
Week 2: 8,860
Week 3: (3,770)
Week 4: 2,303
Week 5: 7,631
Week 6: (14,717)

You need to start making some 20 and 30K winning weeks to offset these 14K losing ones.

Otherwise limit your losses to 5K per day and 10K per week,however that will have the knock on effect of reducing your profits too.

budcampbell · Feb 25, 2012

Neke, your destiny is to suffer. Think about it.

Optionpro007 · Feb 25, 2012

Bad luck. (sorry couldn't resist)

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DDmaster · Feb 25, 2012

first of i want to congratulate neke on his good performance and unbelievable stamina in keeping up to date with his journals throughout the years. iv read significant proportion of your journals and its been entertaining to say the least.

never stop

Quote from budcampbell:
Neke, your destiny is to suffer. Think about it.

that is so very untrue ! how many brain cells do you posses?

according to Nekes records he turned 6300$ in to a sum of 966,283$ and is currently on a Draw down of -165,271$ netting him 794,712$ profit , i would hardly call that suffering

im going to guess your one of those people who enjoy turning the knife while its in there...

Neke i know there's no point saying this but keep up the good work and don't worry about 2 years of slightly negative returns this should only worry you if your trading OPM as they would probably leave or heckle you but since its your own funds you can and will weather the storm.

the night is always darkest before the dawn.

RedTankEra · Feb 25, 2012

Neke,

You making some obvious and terrible mistakes in your money management.

I spend an incredible amount of time waiting for a good trigger setup. When it happens I expect it to go my way from the get go, otherwise what I had thought to be prime is rather dull today, this eliminates the urge to add to a losing trade. When something does not work as expected I reduce it's size until I'm completely flat and with a small loss. Now, let's examine the opposite end of the spectrum. When something works right, that's the kind of trade you want to hold onto. Don't take profits when proven correct, you/we wait too damn long to abandon what's finally taking care of us. Contrary to common advice, you can go broke taking profits. Once your trade develops into a nice strong trend, consider adding using a 3-2-1 unit ratio combined with a price action based trailing stop. Notice, you are doing exactly the opposite of my recommendation. Accept low accuracy, why does it matter if the end result is green, at the present time this is not the case. Markets love to hit extremes, don't let it do that as it goes against you, try to be on the side of that extreme move and pressing it not exiting.

Everything above is missing in your trading.

Best wishes.

tenthousandmen · Feb 25, 2012

Quote from RedTankEra:

Neke,

You making some obvious and terrible mistakes in your money management.

I spend an incredible amount of time waiting for a good trigger setup. When it happens I expect it to go my way from the get go, otherwise what I had thought to be prime is rather dull today, this eliminates the urge to add to a losing trade. When something does not work as expected I reduce it's size until I'm completely flat and with a small loss. Now, let's examine the opposite end of the spectrum. When something works right, that's the kind of trade you want to hold onto. Don't take profits when proven correct, you/we wait too damn long to abandon what's finally taking care of us. Contrary to common advice, you can go broke taking profits. Once your trade develops into a nice strong trend, consider adding using a 3-2-1 unit ratio combined with a price action based trailing stop. Notice, you are doing exactly the opposite of my recommendation. Accept low accuracy, why does it matter if the end result is green, at the present time this is not the case. Markets love to hit extremes, don't let it do that as it goes against you, try to be on the side of that extreme move and pressing it not exiting.

Everything above is missing in your trading.

Best wishes.

Don't bother he never listens. Go back to the other threads, you won't be able to find four posts where Neke even quoted anyone. Talk about psychological problems...

tihfa · Feb 25, 2012

RedTank,

what did you mean by:

"When something does not work as expected I reduce it's size until I'm completely flat and with a small loss."

1) Does this mean you keep scaling out your initial losing entry i.e. sell a third then sell the 2nd third and final remaining third if trade position keeps losing money?

2) Each scale out decision is perhaps based on ATR percentage loss or some S/R being violated?

"Once your trade develops into a nice strong trend, consider adding using a 3-2-1 unit ratio combined with a price action based trailing stop."

3) Conversely, here you keep adding to your position or do you still scale out here as well? It sounds as if you scale out here as well by thirds, right?

Thanks,
Tihfa