2012: The Battle for Survival

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Quote from DisciplinedHedg:

It appears from your weekly comments that you are always making changes to your strategy.

If that is the case, how can you make a fair comparison from one week to another and all past results?

The only constant seems to be you as the trader.

That's true. When I make significant changes, I start measurement from the new date (like the case I mentioned above starting 7/30/2012).
 
Quote from neke:

Code:
ENTRYAMT	EXITAMT		NETRETURN
35160		36156		974
16800		17790		961
31150		32513		1341
20194		22230		2015
41040		41425		370
31138		32305		1145
133954		130623		-3369
52167		54495		2313
46303		48427		2102
48900		48300		-622
59952		59566		-416
49572		50056		462
67040		67220		165
55000		60035		5006
57600		58800		1185
34536		30566		-3999
51840		48600		-3255

6% loss from two trades is not unexpected for the strategy in question, although should be rare. I have tabulated the returns from the srategy from 7/30/2012 when I started measuring it, the results are above. The last two trades are this week's losing trades. In spite of those the strategy is still positive over that period, and it simply means I will be more constrained with my sizing from now until I am sure it is not a permanent market change.

It's not bad, IMO:
Code:
    ENTRY      EXIT    NETRET COMMIS  POSPL%       AV_S       AV_E  ACCTPL%  GROSSPL%
 35160.00  36156.00    974.00  22.00    2.83  120710.00  121706.00     0.83      0.83
 16800.00  17790.00    961.00  29.00    5.89  121706.00  122696.00     0.81      1.65
 31150.00  32513.00   1341.00  22.00    4.38  122696.00  124059.00     1.11      2.77
 20194.00  22230.00   2015.00  21.00   10.08  124059.00  126095.00     1.64      4.46
 41040.00  41425.00    370.00  15.00    0.94  126095.00  126480.00     0.31      4.78
 31138.00  32305.00   1145.00  22.00    3.75  126480.00  127647.00     0.92      5.75
133954.00 130623.00  -3369.00  38.00   -2.49  127647.00  124316.00    -2.61      2.99
 52167.00  54495.00   2313.00  15.00    4.46  124316.00  126644.00     1.87      4.92
 46303.00  48427.00   2102.00  22.00    4.59  126644.00  128768.00     1.68      6.68
 48900.00  48300.00   -622.00  22.00   -1.23  128768.00  128168.00    -0.47      6.18
 59952.00  59566.00   -416.00  30.00   -0.64  128168.00  127782.00    -0.30      5.86
 49572.00  50056.00    462.00  22.00    0.98  127782.00  128266.00     0.38      6.26
 67040.00  67220.00    165.00  15.00    0.27  128266.00  128446.00     0.14      6.41
 55000.00  60035.00   5006.00  29.00    9.15  128446.00  133481.00     3.92     10.58
 57600.00  58800.00   1185.00  15.00    2.08  133481.00  134681.00     0.90     11.57
 34536.00  30566.00  -3999.00  29.00  -11.50  134681.00  130711.00    -2.95      8.29
 51840.00  48600.00  -3255.00  15.00   -6.25  130711.00  127471.00    -2.48      5.60
 
Quote from neke:

I am longing for the day when everything I do will be mechanical (answer a number of objective questions and let the algorithm place a trade if conditions are met)

That was a real step forward for me. I wait for the objective criteria to appear and I place the order. And I grit my teeth 80% of the time because I just can't believe it will work, always seems to be the opposite of what "feels" right. When I look at my trading now, I truly am fading the "old" me :p
 
Weekly Update for week 43/50 ended 11/10/2012


Flat week, up $17 on 16 trades. Some losses entering into Friday, managed to turn it around ending on the flat line.


Code:
Opening Balance:                	109,949
Net gain for the week 		             17
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance:                   		109,966


Since Inception of Thread   01/18/2012 - 11/10/2012

Opening Balance:                   	203,729
Net loss 			        (43,763)(Down 21.5%)
Cash Withdrawal				(50,000)
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance				109,966

attachment.php
 
Quote from neke:

Weekly Update for week 43/50 ended 11/10/2012


Flat week, up $17 on 16 trades. Some losses entering into Friday, managed to turn it around ending on the flat line.


Code:
Opening Balance:                	109,949
Net gain for the week 		             17
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance:                   		109,966


Since Inception of Thread   01/18/2012 - 11/10/2012

Opening Balance:                   	203,729
Net loss 			        (43,763)(Down 21.5%)
Cash Withdrawal				(50,000)
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance				109,966

attachment.php

Sooooo.... results this week....????
 
Sadly it is obvious to anyone who has been trading for long enough that Neke is for real.

Neke used to post his best and worst trades for the week, at some point he decided not to do that. That is up to him.

Keeping this journal going while he is having such a long losing streak is hard enough. I commend him for being able to do that.

The biggest mistake Neke made this past 3 years is not getting smaller and protecting his account, say when it dropped to 500K from its all time high.

There are many traders that might find themselves in a multi year rut during a trading career that might last many decades.

If anything his threads are a great service to ET members in reminding us of the importance of money management (or the lack of) to a traders long term success (or failure).
 
Quote from southall:

Sadly it is obvious to anyone who has been trading for long enough that Neke is for real.

Neke used to post his best and worst trades for the week, at some point he decided not to do that. That is up to him.

Keeping this journal going while he is having such a long losing streak is hard enough. I commend him for being able to do that.

The biggest mistake Neke made this past 3 years is not getting smaller and protecting his account, say when it dropped to 500K from its all time high.

There are many traders that might find themselves in a multi year rut during a trading career that might last many decades.

If anything his threads are a great service to ET members in reminding us of the importance of money management (or the lack of) to a traders long term success (or failure).

southall.... what leads you to believe he is a real person? Do you have empirical proof? Are u telling me you have conviction with 100% certainty that "Neke" hasn't just been a charade all these years in an effort to promote ET?

Because if he is real-- it is absolutely ludicrous that he would post real world trades during times of feast but have absolutely no desire or willingness to do so during times of famine... especially since he is so near to teetering on catastrophic failure...??? A real person with a real family working a real account that affects the livelihood of everyone near and dear and close to him in his tight knit family would be doing everything remotely and realistically possible to engineer a turnaround.

"Neke" does NOTHING other than provide loose rhetoric on "making this change and that.. adusting this and that..." ... only for us to find out weeks later that the same results keep occurring. Insanity is repeating the same thing over and over and expecting different results.... do u reeeaally believe he has changed anything over the last 2 years??? Does anyone want to call Neke sane at this point?

Makes zero sense. I am a realist... not one who lives in a fantasy land.
 
Quote from riffrafffpatrol:

Makes zero sense. I am a realist... not one who lives in a fantasy land.

In the real world very few people make money in the long run at trading. The thing with Neke is that he keeps a journal. There are plenty of other Nekes around but most dont document their stories on the the internet.

Neke has a full time job, that is both a blessing and curse.
He has something to fall back on and wont be out on the street, but it also means he doesn't have to face the hard realities and do what needs to be done for long term success.
 
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