2011: Rebuilding My Battered Account
- Thread starter neke
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When NEKE started this year, he only needed to do a 30% return to produce 100k. Now he must do almost 100% return. Sobering. I won't discourage Neke.
But, I will recommend that he bet less while he loses. Moreover, why not take a 3 month or 6 month break?
If I start to lose then I recognize it and I stop. Trading isn't investing because every realized loss is gone forever. The risks are very high and having a large account does not protect one. A large account beyond what is required isn't even required and doesn't "protect" one or yield a higher "return".
My advice would be to shoot for 30% consistent returns until they are met. At 30% returns, he's only 3 years away from reaching his old equity peak. I've came to a strong belief that one can't risk much if they want to win consistently. A realized loss of > 15% should trigger alarm bells and unrealized loss (held) of > 30% should trigger alarm bells.
This could be the darkest days before he starts to win again but at his edge and leverage ratio then eventual total loss is a high possibility. The mentality of "digging in one's heels" is an alarm bell to me that maybe it is time to take a break, reduce leverage, re-evaluate.
But, I will recommend that he bet less while he loses. Moreover, why not take a 3 month or 6 month break?
If I start to lose then I recognize it and I stop. Trading isn't investing because every realized loss is gone forever. The risks are very high and having a large account does not protect one. A large account beyond what is required isn't even required and doesn't "protect" one or yield a higher "return".
My advice would be to shoot for 30% consistent returns until they are met. At 30% returns, he's only 3 years away from reaching his old equity peak. I've came to a strong belief that one can't risk much if they want to win consistently. A realized loss of > 15% should trigger alarm bells and unrealized loss (held) of > 30% should trigger alarm bells.
This could be the darkest days before he starts to win again but at his edge and leverage ratio then eventual total loss is a high possibility. The mentality of "digging in one's heels" is an alarm bell to me that maybe it is time to take a break, reduce leverage, re-evaluate.
Hang in there, neke, this is a very tough business.
Think about the new year 2012. Forget the past.
If you start a new thread for 2012, I will start one to support you.
Think about the new year 2012. Forget the past.
If you start a new thread for 2012, I will start one to support you.
Just for the record this is a hard market! Anyone who does not agree is either lucky or ignorant. Are there opportunities? Sure. Just like there are opportunities in a casino! But making money consistently in this manipulated uncertain b.s. market with the HFT scum and so-called pros moving the crap around incessantly while there is a gap open every other f-cking day... is a joke.
If I were NEKE I'd take a pass until they apply some HFT scum-killer to the markets. LOL
I can't believe I took a leave of absence from my profession to trade this crapola !
If I were NEKE I'd take a pass until they apply some HFT scum-killer to the markets. LOL
I can't believe I took a leave of absence from my profession to trade this crapola !
Hmm. Not a good career choice unless you had plans to make it work, this was certainly not the best move.
HFT is not your problem, or any traders problem. HFT is there to get between bids and asks, and that's all. It doesn't really even take swing positions but some prop mm's do.
I've done fine this month, waiting out my wash sale to get back in, letting TQQQ fall from 79.45 to less than $60.
maybe we should have a contest. its almost year end. we can all come up with a new title for his 2012 thread. the winner gets free trading lessons from neke.
i will start. "2012: neke, red or green"
i will start. "2012: neke, red or green"
hopefully this is not a career choice... as the current markets are too crazy for me, or else, all the years of not being around the markets have left me a confused moron! lol
good job on TQQQ
I got suckered, and didn't react correctly. I closed some shorts and held off closing longs way too early/late thinking we would move higher into Thanksgiving. I have been kicking myself for being a sucker since last Monday. I don't mind losing but I do hate being my own worst enemy.
That said, I do not like HFT and see no need for it.
I'm going to try to help Neke here. Listen carefully.
Very few traders can manage more then a 4x max return to max drawdown over a long period. Even good traders often only do 1x return to max drawdown. Those are good traders who aren't gambling. Realistically this limits returns to the 30% to 200% range for the 30% drawdown to 50% drawdown levels.
It is okay to set a lofty goals. For example, one of my goals is to approach the 10x level. You can attempt anything you want provided you keep risk to manageable levels. 10x returns.. 15x.. 20x.. Yet, one has to re-adjust if the risk gets too high.
I think setting several goals would be good for you Neke but they need to be realistic. Like bronze 30%, silver 50%, gold 60%+, platinum 100%+ would be similar to how I might do it.
You seem to be the type of trader who treats the game as monopoly money. Notice all the 'friends' you are getting.. losers have lots of friends. Winners have few, if any. Neke, listen most people on this thread don't want to see you win because they are losers. They want to validate to themselves that everyone else is.
I strongly advise deep soul searching. If keeping this journal isn't helping you to win then gotta question the worth...
Very few traders can manage more then a 4x max return to max drawdown over a long period. Even good traders often only do 1x return to max drawdown. Those are good traders who aren't gambling. Realistically this limits returns to the 30% to 200% range for the 30% drawdown to 50% drawdown levels.
It is okay to set a lofty goals. For example, one of my goals is to approach the 10x level. You can attempt anything you want provided you keep risk to manageable levels. 10x returns.. 15x.. 20x.. Yet, one has to re-adjust if the risk gets too high.
I think setting several goals would be good for you Neke but they need to be realistic. Like bronze 30%, silver 50%, gold 60%+, platinum 100%+ would be similar to how I might do it.
You seem to be the type of trader who treats the game as monopoly money. Notice all the 'friends' you are getting.. losers have lots of friends. Winners have few, if any. Neke, listen most people on this thread don't want to see you win because they are losers. They want to validate to themselves that everyone else is.
I strongly advise deep soul searching. If keeping this journal isn't helping you to win then gotta question the worth...
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