Thanks Neke for your honest postings.
You'll get it back, You'll recover.
You'll get it back, You'll recover.
2011: Rebuilding My Battered Account
- Thread starter neke
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Hindsight isnât required to trade using technical price action 101 and earnings-based fundamentals. Fundamentally, NKE beats earnings and raises guidance. Raised guidance is a buy signal for institutional investors, and institutional investors move price.
Technically, NKE opens gapped above its previous resistance level on raised guidance. Thatâs an immediate long signal for intraday traders, with a stop loss below previous resistance (~84.80). As long as price stays above that gapped up opening print, the more likely it is that previous highs will be tested, with the March high around 91.00 easily in play as long as any selling remains subdued and on low volume.
Unless the market in general is selling off on bad news, raised guidance is the last thing in the world you want to short. When I was a complete trading noob, I learned in my first month of experience that you can buy new highs when a company raises guidance and almost always make easy money.
Asset managers are investors, not day traders, and guidance is what predicts future earnings, which is the main thing they look for. These are the players who cause strong price moves, not day traders and short-selling faders.
neke, i believe your problems started when you started to automate and tried to reduce your risk.
your original plan was a high risk strategy and you outlined the kind of large draw-downs you could expect given that strategy. When you started to adjust your strategy I don't believe you had seen any losses outside of what you had expected, I think that since your account had grown relatively large you were having trouble with the dollar amount of your losses, even though you were still within the realm of your loss expectations.
I have no problem with making adjustments to your strategy if you notice a pattern that is hurting you but I think that adjusting your risk tolerance requires re-thinking your entire investment strategy, which I don't believe you ever did.
I liked your original investment strategy and think that you were executing it well. with a few adjustments, i.e. reducing your revenge trading; adjusting to new market patterns you would have been fine. instead you reduced your risk and now your trading seems a little lost. I'm not a big fan of automation, I think it can never incorporate every nuance of the market which for me is what trading is all about. Of course it would be nice to get rid of emotional trading but that is something that you can get better at with time.
go back to your original strategy but make sure this time that you can psychologically handle larger dollar amounts. on a micro level, when you trade you only want to be thinking about the factors that are affecting what you are trading and on a macro level you want to be thinking about what you have learned for your next trade; not, for example, i'm x% off my high or i can buy a car with what i just made, etc. that stuff can't enter into your world of trading, it needs to be completely separate. with the risk you are looking to take on, those thoughts will destroy your psychology.
your original plan was a high risk strategy and you outlined the kind of large draw-downs you could expect given that strategy. When you started to adjust your strategy I don't believe you had seen any losses outside of what you had expected, I think that since your account had grown relatively large you were having trouble with the dollar amount of your losses, even though you were still within the realm of your loss expectations.
I have no problem with making adjustments to your strategy if you notice a pattern that is hurting you but I think that adjusting your risk tolerance requires re-thinking your entire investment strategy, which I don't believe you ever did.
I liked your original investment strategy and think that you were executing it well. with a few adjustments, i.e. reducing your revenge trading; adjusting to new market patterns you would have been fine. instead you reduced your risk and now your trading seems a little lost. I'm not a big fan of automation, I think it can never incorporate every nuance of the market which for me is what trading is all about. Of course it would be nice to get rid of emotional trading but that is something that you can get better at with time.
go back to your original strategy but make sure this time that you can psychologically handle larger dollar amounts. on a micro level, when you trade you only want to be thinking about the factors that are affecting what you are trading and on a macro level you want to be thinking about what you have learned for your next trade; not, for example, i'm x% off my high or i can buy a car with what i just made, etc. that stuff can't enter into your world of trading, it needs to be completely separate. with the risk you are looking to take on, those thoughts will destroy your psychology.
What Real Trader can lose over 100k in 1 month & still continue to work a full time job . that is a red flag.. real traders would not trade the way he does with real money? If someone earns 25 k in 1 week. Why work a full time job? Any real trader is going to devote all your attention to trading full time it's their livelihood.. easy to do if your using monopoly money. He is in fantasy land with this journal. always good for a laugh
He Is Day Trading Only. I been following this thread and have always been skeptical with his trading. Would you day trade & work a full time job & risk thousands every day ? You have to be fucking stupid !! short term trader then maybe it would make sense. Real traders with real money on the line trade full time if their Only day trading . everyone like's good story. I live in the real world & know better from experience.
This is exactly the type of results one should expect when luck is confused with skill. Anyone ever stop to think that all those losses would be profits if he only took the opposite side of those trades? The most amazing thing I find about the thread isn't Neke's misfortune(self-induced) but the psychology of the those making comments. Too many failed traders offering support and encouragement in the hopes to live vicariously through Neke in the hopes that the law of averages some how does not apply to each and every one of us equally. Almost EVERY trader I know had a win streak of monster wins like Neke had which must seem like eons ago because I've only seen huge losses on this thread the past couple years. Take the blinders off Neke...automation is not the answer to your problems. How can you program a strategy when you have less than a elementary understanding of market dynamics and risk management? Automated trading is all about risk management and economies of scale. Automation is a frequency and expectancy game which basically means grinding out consistent profits with known max losses day after day. Your stated goal of 1000% returns was self-sabotage from the very start. The only strategy that I've seen is loosely based on Newton's law that what goes up must come down or that which has fallen so far and so fast must rebound. Trading is a lot like life...it is mundane, monotonous, boring, and it is he that can stay on that path who will be called successful. You should seek excitement in hobbies such as skydiving, extreme sports, or drag racing which you could easily afford to do whenever you decide to stop treating your trading capital as if it were a high score on an X-Box game. I wish you much success and fortunately for you...there is still plenty of money left in your account for you to trade with after you have actually learned how to trade.
Surprised that in all the pages of commentary no one commented on this.....
"Cancelled the order and went away"? Are you serious? If you were a boxer your corner man would have thrown in the towel long ago. You're not even defending yourself. Just standing there taking punches until your face hits the canvas.
"Why I haven't stopped I am not sure."
I know why, as does everyone else.
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