2011: Rebuilding My Battered Account

[Redneck]

My opinion – which admittedly ain’t worth much

Those of you who enjoy reading this – I simply can’t imagine why…..


For some of us – it is sad…, a deep down sad that sticks in the pit of your stomach


It took a considerable price for him to get to where he was (success wise)

Evidently though it was not nearly enough – last year..., or this



By all means enjoy the show – Neke is paying for it

Just be sure to thank him on your way out – if nothing he’ll have that as a memory, when it's said and done


RN

 

[neke]

Quote from spd:

Re-read what you just wrote. 12k/day is modest? Are you trading out of pure compulsion right now? How much do you need to make a day to feel good?

If you can net 12k/day only 3 days a week you can scoop up 144,000/month. Wouldnt take long to rebuild your account and then some at that rate.

Your account is "battered" because you are greedy and revenge trading. Im tickled to death with 1000/day and you are pissing on 12k?

Hey, I am not pissing at 12K!. I said it was a modest gain only in the ontext of the moves that happened the day before to my account. Of course I would be thrilled to have 12K a day everyday, but it doesn't come that way.

 

[neke]

Quote from 007Arb:

I have traded a $2300 account to $2.2 million but it has taken me 26 years!

Thanks for being an example of patience. Not many have that!

 

[neke]

Quote from Red_Ink_inc:

Your positions are too big. Your stops are too wide.

I do not consider my individual positions to be too big, but taken together on Wednesday, it was an over-exposure on the long side in a declining market. That brings me to the aspect of risk management I want to work on/develop rules for: when a signal starts generating lots of trades on the same side (long), how much of these should be taken before the overall risk is too much.

As for stops, I'd rather not have them if I am fading over-extended moves. Studies and my own back-tests have shown they diminish and not increase returns if you are a pure fader (of over-extended moves when the levels are hit). Of course there will come times when the trend never reverses (in your timeframe), and your account survivability is in question (flash crash or actual crash of Oct 19, 1987), and it becomes necessary to develop contingencies for such. Getting out then becomes not a question of whether you expect a rebound or not, but whether your account can survive. In any case the signal that generated the trades on Wed probably would not have generated individual stocks on Oct 19, 1987.

 

[spd]

Quote from neke:

Hey, I am not pissing at 12K!. I said it was a modest gain only in the ontext of the moves that happened the day before to my account. Of course I would be thrilled to have 12K a day everyday, but it doesn't come that way.

I wish you the best neke.

 

[Notes123]

Quote from neke:



when a signal starts generating lots of trades on the same side (long), how much of these should be taken before the overall risk is too much.

ok, where are those advice-givers who advised neke to take human emotions out of trading and let the automated system work its way?

 

[leonarda]

Quote from neke:

I do not consider my individual positions to be too big, but taken together on Wednesday, it was an over-exposure on the long side in a declining market. That brings me to the aspect of risk management I want to work on/develop rules for: when a signal starts generating lots of trades on the same side (long), how much of these should be taken before the overall risk is too much.

As for stops, I'd rather not have them if I am fading over-extended moves. Studies and my own back-tests have shown they diminish and not increase returns if you are a pure fader (of over-extended moves when the levels are hit). Of course there will come times when the trend never reverses (in your timeframe), and your account survivability is in question (flash crash or actual crash of Oct 19, 1987), and it becomes necessary to develop contingencies for such. Getting out then becomes not a question of whether you expect a rebound or not, but whether your account can survive. In any case the signal that generated the trades on Wed probably would not have generated individual stocks on Oct 19, 1987.

Neke, you obviously have some "mental" stop you use as you obviously have got out of some of the recent big losing trades for a loss, so what is your "mental" get out method?
I understand your view on not using automated stops.

 

[Nine_Ender]

Quote from Nine_Ender:

POT calls have a huge premium so I'd say its dangerous to chase the trend so close to expiry. A play I like much better are Canadian banks which were flat in 2010 but are beginning what looks like a breakout into earnings ( early March ) now.

TD, BNS, CM all setting new 52 week highs last week. RY is a laggard play still $7 off its 52 week high but starting to slowly perk up. Call options remain fairly cheap because these stocks were range bound for 14 months.

March calls look wonderful but a correctly timed entry is almost can't miss. Any option week related dip is a huge buying opportunity. Not sure if we'll get the dip anymore, but the manipulations in expiry week are sometimes pretty transparent ( except to some of the permabears on here who think they are triggering a correction ).

I think I have an edge on this play and this sector looks like its going up another 10-20% very soon. I have one position now that I plan on selling on the first good day next week. I'll then redeploy my capital on March calls on any intraday dips in price.

Fundamentally, I predict TD Bank raises their dividend on March 3rd setting off a week long buying spree from "buy and hold" types in Canada and yield lovers in the US.

This was/is a huge winner for me. A good illustration how sticking to strong fundamental plays with leverage can be extremely profitable, especially when the trade is being somewhat ignored by the crowd.

I expect TD to go to $90 Cdn by next week.

 

[neke]

Weekly Update for week 8/50 ended 03/05/2011

Better week, up 10K (4.8%).

Cut down average size this week, and made some nice gains here and there.

Still working on laying a foundation for my portfolio risk/size management.

Opening Balance:                	271,795
Net gain for the week 		         10,474
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance:                   		282,269

Number of Trades	            	 12
Number of Profitable Trades    	    	  8


Since Inception of Thread   01/8/2011 - 03/05/2011

Opening Balance:                   	335,899
Net loss(Less Margin Interest)		 53,630 (Down 16%)
------------------------------------------------
Net Balance				282,269

Number of Trades	           	 124
Number of Profitable Trades        	 67

 

[Engine99]

Congrats on the week, keep it going like this !!