2011 Journal: My first journal. Following in Geez' and Puddles' footsteps

M

Math_Wiz

I think I'm going to go ahead and start a journal here. I'm not sure how long it will last, but let's just see where it goes.

I don't really have a single or even a set trading strategy at the moment, but I learned the "Wisdom of the Bars", as I call it, from Geez and Puddles. And by that I mean if I have a bias in a stock, I first need to wait for a setup (as I see it), and then enter in the direction of the trade one penny above (or below) a particular bar, and exit with a stop one penny above or below that same bar, usually the 5-minute bar.

Geez and Puddles like to place targets at a place which is equal to double their risk. Perhaps it would be wise for me to do the same, I don't know, but I think I might prefer staying in the trade as long as the stock continues to make higher highs (or lower lows) on the timeframe that I'm watching (usually the 5minute).

I'm having some trouble at times taking the trades that I see, and also exiting appropriately, so I'm hoping this journal can help to focus me. It is my thinking here that if I share my trade ideas with Elitetrader, then I will be forced to stay "in line" with my will.

I am planning to post at least some of my trades in real time, or near real time (perhaps after I've entered, lol). I will also post stocks I'm watching, and general ideas I have about the direction of the market. I will also try to post some charts.

And I will definitely be posting some of my "mistakes", making them public, as a way of curing myself of "self-sabotage", a phrase that I learned from Adrienne Toghraie in one of her free seminars. So stay tuned to hear all about my "mistakes"! :D

+-*/ Math_Wiz
 
I don't really have a bias for tomorrow as of right now, but I did observe that SPY broke through its April lows, and QQQ is well on its way. Next level of support for SPY, as far as I can see, is around the 126 level. The lows of January were 126.15, which coincides with the bottom of the body (not the tail) of the red daily candle for 3/16/2011. This is another $3 down from current levels, which will keep me hesitant to go long anything tomorrow or in the near future. But I will try to keep an open mind, and "trade what I see, not what I think".

+-*/ Math_Wiz
 
Didn't do much except churn SPY today, lol. But at least I made money. :)

Actually, I also traded AAPL, TZOO, APOL, FFIV, and CMG today, but mostly scalps. I didn't really have any strong biases today, so no real trend-trading today. Thus, no charts to post.

With that said, observations include the following:

SPY still has not made a higher high on the daily chart yet this month. Ditto QQQ.

DIA made a higher high today, but then closed at yesterday's low. Ugly.

FFIV rallied nicely today, climbing almost $1 during the last 30 minutes of the day as SPY fell $1 during the same time. It could potentially reach for monthly highs in the near future.

The Dow is just ~70 points above the psychological 12,000 mark.

SMH made a nice higher high and higher low today, although it didn't break above June 3, and it also closed on the lows of the day.

The $SOX didn't quite make a lower low today, but it certainly doesn't look bullish by any stretch of the imagination. Ditto OIH.

Paper was all the rage today, lol. WY ended up 5% on the day, and looks poised to take out its June 6 post-market highs.

The following stocks look poised to take out their monthly highs soon, if we can get any type of upward movement in the markets.

OSG, EQR, FFIV, TSL, HME, V, BLL, DLTR, MGA, GR, MCO, PSA, D, INTC, ETR, AMZN, ORLY, GOLD, SPWRA, YUM, and WY.

Watching the level 2 on IBM and AAPL today, there just didn't seem to be any buying interest today in those two stocks.

+-*/ Math_Wiz
 
Terrible day. Churned SPY, overtraded. Nothing to write home about, lol. A losing day for me. I need to stick to my stops, stick to my proper size, worry about losses, the profits will take care of themselves, etc.

It was amazing to me how often SPY seemed to change its bias today. It's going up! No wait, it's going down! No wait, it's going up! No wait, it's going down!

They really got me good today. I've got to slow it down tomorrow, and maybe stick to Geez's and Puddles' strategy, since they inspired this thread after all ;)

Let's see if I can get it right...

+-*/ Math_Wiz
 
<img src="http://i1201.photobucket.com/albums/bb352/math_wiz1234/110609COP.png">


- Shorted COP on break of the 5min.
- Overextended.
- Level 2 action seemed to be slowing
- Covered a bit early, partly out of fear, and partly from the belief that the 1-minute chart was going to make a higher high, so I got out according to my plan, but not according to Geez's plan. He would've stayed in until his target was hit, which would have been around 8-cents lower than where I exited.

Good trade anyways. I'm happy with the results.

+-*/ Math_Wiz
 
<img src="http://i1201.photobucket.com/albums/bb352/math_wiz1234/110609SPY.png">

- Shorted SPY on belief that it was overextended.
- Got stopped out, but reentered based on Level II weakness. I felt there were really no buyers to push it up to 130.00.
- Exited after a nice run down, according to my plan

- Failed to reenter. :(

- But still happy with the trade.

+-*/ Math_Wiz
 
The second mouse gets the cheese in the previous example, lol. I should have expected that, but I was too anxious and greedy.

+-*/ Math_Wiz
 
Prediction for tomorrow:

SPY opens relatively flat, climbs above 128 as the Dow simultaneously tops 12,000 again. Then SPY falls back to below 127.50 again, but by the end of the day the Dow finishes above 12,000 and SPY finishes above 128.

I have a bullish bias for tomorrow.

+-*/ Math_Wiz
 
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