This is my forecast for the upcoming years. The 2008-2010 section is light on causes and consequences, but is merely intended to highlight a few key points about the situation. The 2010-2012 section has my direction forecast with some details as to why. It could and should be more in depth, but this is the first draft. Last section is just some random guesses. The document might have better readability in word.
There are a lot of bears out there right now, especially in main stream culture. I see this as a contrarian indicator. I think we are headed towards a more fiscally conservative government and I think Obama is going to be far closer to the center for the rest of his presidency. This may actually produce a more effective government with surprising results. A government style similar to that of the Clinton years.
2008-2010 highlights
The business structure was very aware of market conditions and was able to adjust to demand quickly. Companies cut production and well run companies survived. Our businesses operate on better information than previous generations and are able to make critical business decisions more efficiently.
The Housing bubble was the cause of the collapse, and developments in the financing community made things worse. The housing bubble focused our economy on producing houses. Company outlooks were all built with growth in that sector as a major focus.
The breaking of this bubble requires the country to restructure its growth. Companies had to reevaluate their direction and determine how to be competitive in a Global Marketplace. Since the influx of modern technology into business, America has needed time to detach itself from the suburban growth story and to understand how to best utilize technology to increase wealth and productivity.
2010-2012
Companies now have a better understanding of where growth is headed and have picked projects to achieve the companies growth plans. Companies have been attempting to fund these projects over the last several months to a year. However, this market is currently being crowded by treasury markets.
I believe one of the main reasons for QE2 is the Fed buying t-bills to push out other banks so they will lend in other markets. This is why junk bonds have been rallying since the Feds move. I think we will continue to see movement out of t bills and into higher yielding bonds and equities.
I think the market rallies and the economy comes back much quicker than most people are now expecting. Once growth starts I think the interconnectedness of the system will accelerate the recovery. The system has found a stable state and has been waiting in it for some time. As soon as you see some growth you will see quick acceleration.
The outline Obama has put out for a tax structure revamp is very pro business and fiscally conservative. It broadens the tax base and cuts personal and corporate taxes across the board. It also would end mortgage interest deductions ending government manipulation of that sectors growth. This produces a large amount of revenue and ends government promotion of housing growth. This trims debt without increasing corporate or personal income taxes.
Similar to the Feds action with QE2 reducing the current deficit equals an increase in funds available for other bond markets. These markets fund business projects which create jobs, produce national revenue, and more efficiently allocate resources. A change in tax structure should also greatly increase the number and profitability of projects.
A changing national mood is most likely going to be present. A more positive outlook will be noticeable. Fashion trends will move in a preppier direction and there will be less movies about the end of the world. Partisanship will wane a great deal as Obama will be working with mostly republicans and center democrats to achieve his goals.
2012-?
Internationally I think we will see markets open up in Cuba and North Korea sometime within the next five-ten years. Other markets may open but these two will be growth leaders. Cuba will help American growth, specifically in South Florida and the Gulf region.
I think you will see less trade barriers and a re-commitment to Globalization.
I'm not advocating any particular path, this is just my outlook on the future. I'd be interested in alternative opinions or thoughts on my forecast.
There are a lot of bears out there right now, especially in main stream culture. I see this as a contrarian indicator. I think we are headed towards a more fiscally conservative government and I think Obama is going to be far closer to the center for the rest of his presidency. This may actually produce a more effective government with surprising results. A government style similar to that of the Clinton years.
2008-2010 highlights
The business structure was very aware of market conditions and was able to adjust to demand quickly. Companies cut production and well run companies survived. Our businesses operate on better information than previous generations and are able to make critical business decisions more efficiently.
The Housing bubble was the cause of the collapse, and developments in the financing community made things worse. The housing bubble focused our economy on producing houses. Company outlooks were all built with growth in that sector as a major focus.
The breaking of this bubble requires the country to restructure its growth. Companies had to reevaluate their direction and determine how to be competitive in a Global Marketplace. Since the influx of modern technology into business, America has needed time to detach itself from the suburban growth story and to understand how to best utilize technology to increase wealth and productivity.
2010-2012
Companies now have a better understanding of where growth is headed and have picked projects to achieve the companies growth plans. Companies have been attempting to fund these projects over the last several months to a year. However, this market is currently being crowded by treasury markets.
I believe one of the main reasons for QE2 is the Fed buying t-bills to push out other banks so they will lend in other markets. This is why junk bonds have been rallying since the Feds move. I think we will continue to see movement out of t bills and into higher yielding bonds and equities.
I think the market rallies and the economy comes back much quicker than most people are now expecting. Once growth starts I think the interconnectedness of the system will accelerate the recovery. The system has found a stable state and has been waiting in it for some time. As soon as you see some growth you will see quick acceleration.
The outline Obama has put out for a tax structure revamp is very pro business and fiscally conservative. It broadens the tax base and cuts personal and corporate taxes across the board. It also would end mortgage interest deductions ending government manipulation of that sectors growth. This produces a large amount of revenue and ends government promotion of housing growth. This trims debt without increasing corporate or personal income taxes.
Similar to the Feds action with QE2 reducing the current deficit equals an increase in funds available for other bond markets. These markets fund business projects which create jobs, produce national revenue, and more efficiently allocate resources. A change in tax structure should also greatly increase the number and profitability of projects.
A changing national mood is most likely going to be present. A more positive outlook will be noticeable. Fashion trends will move in a preppier direction and there will be less movies about the end of the world. Partisanship will wane a great deal as Obama will be working with mostly republicans and center democrats to achieve his goals.
2012-?
Internationally I think we will see markets open up in Cuba and North Korea sometime within the next five-ten years. Other markets may open but these two will be growth leaders. Cuba will help American growth, specifically in South Florida and the Gulf region.
I think you will see less trade barriers and a re-commitment to Globalization.
I'm not advocating any particular path, this is just my outlook on the future. I'd be interested in alternative opinions or thoughts on my forecast.