20 reasons why Oil to NEVER hit $135.00 again...dated: May 22, 2008

[Champion]

Well, how did oil do today (CL - Tuesday July 22, 2008)? Previous close to todays close, down 340 on the new front month

This is what the mo-fo (U8 contract) did from open to close: down 169, up 108, down 65, up 89, down 70, up 58, down 172, up 112, down 84, up 95, down 53, up 235, down 119, up 70 & down 110.

Yesterday a fast bottom at 14.14. with a big upswing into the close - 160+ from the 14.14 bottom while today a top at 14.14 and a net downswing into the close - 159 points going down.

Ok, here is something to get savvy about: note your time line. All stuff at ET only concentates on price - never when it happens. But everything on a chart is price by time.

".. ah bubbling crude.. oil that is .. black gold .. Texas tea"

 

[eagle]

Reaching second attempt for support around $120. And...?

I'm finally right with IncreaseNow, LOL. Sadly, no more money to short, account was wiped out. Yep, we were right with empty pocket.

This is a good example that trading is very risky that even the trader was right but with little precision missing, we're finished.

Lesson learned, NEVER HAVE A STRONG CONVICTION OF SOMETHING. NEVER BELIEVE TOO MUCH IN OUR PREDICTION. JUST FOLLOW THE FLOW.

In other words:

I think ... => ok
I'm sure ... => not ok

 

[jasonjm]

actually you got that lesson wrong

the lesson is trade oil at 1:1 margin

then you can afford for sanity to return

I know it aint exciting trading at 1:1 though.

I'm looking to go long oil at around 85-95

If we dont see 85-95 zone, then no trade

 

[increasenow]

Quote from increasenow:

Oil to NEVER hit $135.00 again...dated: May 22, 2008

hmmmm...well it did hit it, but now...hmmm...really way under $135.00...will we ever see $135.00 Oil again?...what do you think?....I traded the CL and ICE Brent Crude Oil today...would have had a great CL trade but my platform was set to a default cash loss amount and it exited me out too soon...would have been a good profit...did make $$$ trading ICE Brent Crude Oil today...gotta love the CL and Brent Crude Oil per point value... 1 point = $1,000 1 tick = $10

anyone trade the QM mini Crude Oil?...I hate the huge spreads on it...

 

[increasenow]

Quote from jasonjm:

the lesson is trade oil at 1:1 margin

what does this mean?...forgive me for not understanding but...what exactly does this mean...please explain...thanks...

 

[increasenow]

Quote from jasonjm:

I'm looking to go long oil at around 85-95

If we dont see 85-95 zone, then no trade

you are waiting to trade Crude Oil until it goes to $85-$95????...no trading until that level is hit?

 

[increasenow]

Quote from eagle:

Reaching second attempt for support around $120. And...?

I'm finally right with IncreaseNow, LOL. Sadly, no more money to short, account was wiped out. Yep, we were right with empty pocket.

This is a good example that trading is very risky that even the trader was right but with little precision missing, we're finished.

Lesson learned, NEVER HAVE A STRONG CONVICTION OF SOMETHING. NEVER BELIEVE TOO MUCH IN OUR PREDICTION. JUST FOLLOW THE FLOW.

In other words:

I think ... => ok
I'm sure ... => not ok

hey eagle...what really happened in your CL trade(s)?

 

[increasenow]

Quote from Champion:

Ok, here is something to get savvy about: note your time line. All stuff at ET only concentates on price - never when it happens. But everything on a chart is price by time.

okay...please break your timeline strategy down for trading the CL from 9:30AM to 11:30AM New York time...thanks...

 

[increasenow]

Quote from JaiSreeram:

QUOTE]Quote from JSSPMK:
Gee, are we running out of oil or what? Or is it USD which is causing all this bullshit?

The falling dollar has caused the prices of the Oil to rise; as international prices of Oil is in US Dollars. Thus, when US dollars fell the prices rose dramatically.

Please have a look at the following threads to have a clearer idea:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=104501
http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=108642
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=55456 [/QUOTE]great post!..right on!

 

[jasonjm]

Quote from increasenow:

you are waiting to trade Crude Oil until it goes to $85-$95????...no trading until that level is hit?

correct.

unless it hits around 175 to 200 first, then i will go short....

1:1 margin means as follows:

the CL contract is worth $120 000 when oil is trading at $120 per barrel. Therefore to open up 1 CL contract long or short, your trading account should have $120 000 capital in it.