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20 reasons why Oil to NEVER hit $135.00 again...dated: May 22, 2008
- Thread starter increasenow
- Start date
This is why I swore on my ancestors that I'd never trade currencies or commodities.
Too much.
Too much.
Quote from increasenow:
Oil to NEVER hit $135.00 again...dated: May 22, 2008...here is why...read...
1-Many will continue to profit take as price target of $135 was hit
2-Dollar is getting stronger
3-Commodity bubble about to burst
4-there will be HUGE after memorial day sell off...watch for it...will start tomorrow, Friday May 23 ,2008
5-Next Wed EIA report will be massively bearish stating overstock of inventory...
6-monthly supply reports should show back up of inventory
7-when it begins, watch out, will fall hard...
8-much of upward price momentum has been short covering rally
9-Venezuala issues appear to be a 'non issue'
10-Iran supply issues are 'not there'
11-market did not budge when congress said no more stock piling invenotry
12-"irrational exuberance" in Oil cannot continue
13-gas prices will rise and demand will lessen thus ending demand for Oil
14-Green options (non Oil required...I.e. Wind farms etc.) will continue to grow
15-COT report will begin to show this...this lack of demand for Oil
16-the "prophetic" future contracts in months, years to come are price less then the current front month contract...so, traders are expecting that Oil price will and should decline!!!
17-Brent Crude is almost same price as WTI Crude thus indicating the 'devaluing' of the WTI Nymex product...
18-China etc.cannot keep current pace of 'craving' for commodities such as Oil etc.
19-Ethanol boom will become a 'bust' thus creating desire for 'purer' return to gas and normal Oil supply/demand
20-Inflation to be proven 'non issue' and price of Oil comes down as economy strengthens
Disclosure: this is my opinion only. Do your own research before buying or selling Oil futures or USO stock or USO options or even OIH, DUG etc..or anything Oil related...
PLEASE ADD YOUR POINTS #21, #22,#23...etc..
pwned
Oil to NEVER hit $135.00 again.
Ironic to see this as we sit at $138.50; anyone care to make this assertion from a bullish perspective now?
On a serious note, picking tops in CL is pure gambling because you have zero control over where an overleveraged short account will blow out. I'm not just talking about Joe-ET who sold QM at 130 with a 140 stop; there are small-mid size producers getting blown out of forward sales on margin calls due to inadequate bank financing.
That's not to say you can't trade short here - but don't do it on some list of 20 fundamental or technical reasons because they don't mean shit to the margin clerk.
Ironic to see this as we sit at $138.50; anyone care to make this assertion from a bullish perspective now?
On a serious note, picking tops in CL is pure gambling because you have zero control over where an overleveraged short account will blow out. I'm not just talking about Joe-ET who sold QM at 130 with a 140 stop; there are small-mid size producers getting blown out of forward sales on margin calls due to inadequate bank financing.
That's not to say you can't trade short here - but don't do it on some list of 20 fundamental or technical reasons because they don't mean shit to the margin clerk.
Hello all...I was HUGELY wrong BIG time...thanks for your time reading this post ...you were right and I was wrong...sorry I could not reply sooner as I was traveling...the best trading to you all..again...I was wrong and you were right!
Quote from increasenow:
Hello all...I was HUGELY wrong BIG time...thanks for your time reading this post ...you were right and I was wrong...sorry I could not reply sooner as I was traveling...the best trading to you all..again...I was wrong and you were right!
Nothing to be sorry about. You were right for two weeks! Congrats on that. All you need to make big money is being right one-day or one-week at a time (depending on your holding time-frame), and you will be super rich in the long run.
Two observations about this thread:
1. OP too pronounced in prediction (aka "never"), but at least he put some thought into the post and created conversation (point of a forum).
2. There are too many cynical jerk-offs on ET (financial world in general) that take comfort in seeing others suffer from wrong decisions. Most of these jerk-offs couldn't trade themselves out of a wet paper-bag.
1. OP too pronounced in prediction (aka "never"), but at least he put some thought into the post and created conversation (point of a forum).
2. There are too many cynical jerk-offs on ET (financial world in general) that take comfort in seeing others suffer from wrong decisions. Most of these jerk-offs couldn't trade themselves out of a wet paper-bag.
Quote from increasenow:
Hello all...I was HUGELY wrong BIG time...thanks for your time reading this post ...you were right and I was wrong...sorry I could not reply sooner as I was traveling...the best trading to you all..again...I was wrong and you were right!
Credit to admitting your blown call.
Credit for taking a stand with conviction.
11Blade