20 reasons why Oil to NEVER hit $135.00 again...dated: May 22, 2008

[RhinoGG]

Quote from jonbig04:

How can you honestly think oil is going down in the long run? shit it might go down to $25 in the short run who knows, but there is increasing DEMAND and limited SUPPLY. Period. End of discussion.

Oh, do please show us this Increasing Demand and Limited Supply? Please, I beg of you.

This morning on my drive into the office, I passed 5 stations. Not one had a long line of cars/SUV/minivans/Service Trucks waiting. I could have easily pulled into each station, filled my tank, and been on my way in less than 5 minutes. Supply issues. F*CKING HA! Demand issues F*UCKING HA! Yes, I know Chindia will be putting some cars on the road, but come on, do you honestly believe that 2bln Chindians are going to start driving tomorrow? Grow up and get the tin hat off of your conspiracy filled head. The world is awash in oil and gasoline and will be for many, many years to come.

 

[jonbig04]

Quote from RhinoGG:

Oh, do please show us this Increasing Demand and Limited Supply? Please, I beg of you.

This morning on my drive into the office, I passed 5 stations. Not one had a long line of cars/SUV/minivans/Service Trucks waiting. I could have easily pulled into each station, filled my tank, and been on my way in less than 5 minutes. Supply issues. F*CKING HA! Demand issues F*UCKING HA! Yes, I know Chindia will be putting some cars on the road, but come on, do you honestly believe that 2bln Chindians are going to start driving tomorrow? Grow up and get the tin hat off of your conspiracy filled head. The world is awash in oil and gasoline and will be for many, many years to come.

wow. It's not a conspiracy. Im not sure how you got the impression that I think its a conspiracy...anyways. You are measuring GLOBAL demand by your drive to the office based on the gas stations you saw? Thats a joke right? Do you honestly think that is an accurate way to measure global sentiment? lol Are the Chindians going to buy cars tomorrow? No, you are right, but they will buy them. Demand WILL increase, one way or the other. It might drop a little of course, but in the LONG RUN there is no other way for it to go. Unless we come up with a reliable energy solution im not sure how you can possibly think its going down long term. Are chindians never going to buy cars? Are they NEVER going to need oil? Is the global economy not going to grow at all? That seems to be what you are saying. As far as supply goes....Saudi Arabia has been producing oil at 100% capacity for how long now...we've been producing 85 million barrels per day for years now. NO MORE. Even if we could somehow increase supply, that doesnt change the fact the oil is a NON-RENEWABLE RESOURCE. There is ONLY so much of it. Do you understand what non-renewable means? Do you think there is an endless and unlimited supply? I really hope not.

 

[increasenow]

20 day CL low of 120.65 about to be crossed...freefall down after that...also...50-Day moving average of 117.72 is very seriously in range(CL is already under 5 and 10 day MA)...BEARISH moves on CL continue...Dollar is getting stronger...no more rate cuts...less gas demand and overstocking of Oil inventories...world demand (India, China) also decreasing ='s the continued BEARISH move in CL...could finish by Friday under $120.00

 

[increasenow]

$125.00 is now CL SUPER RESISTANCE...

 

[ess1096]

Quote from increasenow:

the continued BEARISH move in CL...could finish by Friday under $120.00

With SOOOOO many peolple watching the $120 mark for support I can only imagine how many sell stops are sitting just below $120, actual as well as mental stops.
A close below $120 can excellerate oil into a freefall. If so, a touch of $100 in the near future is not unlikely. imo

 

[epetrov]

There must be another thread why the oil prices must hit 200 USD in the near future.
I'm sure at least 20 strong reasons can be put.

 

[RhinoGG]

Quote from jonbig04:

wow. It's not a conspiracy. Im not sure how you got the impression that I think its a conspiracy...anyways. You are measuring GLOBAL demand by your drive to the office based on the gas stations you saw? Thats a joke right? Do you honestly think that is an accurate way to measure global sentiment? lol Are the Chindians going to buy cars tomorrow? No, you are right, but they will buy them. Demand WILL increase, one way or the other. It might drop a little of course, but in the LONG RUN there is no other way for it to go. Unless we come up with a reliable energy solution im not sure how you can possibly think its going down long term. Are chindians never going to buy cars? Are they NEVER going to need oil? Is the global economy not going to grow at all? That seems to be what you are saying. As far as supply goes....Saudi Arabia has been producing oil at 100% capacity for how long now...we've been producing 85 million barrels per day for years now. NO MORE. Even if we could somehow increase supply, that doesnt change the fact the oil is a NON-RENEWABLE RESOURCE. There is ONLY so much of it. Do you understand what non-renewable means? Do you think there is an endless and unlimited supply? I really hope not.

Your perception is your reality.

How are you measuring GLOBAL Demand? What facts and figures can you refer me to. That FACTS and figures, not, err, umm, ya know, thars only so much oil, them thar arabs can only git only so much out of the ground.

YES, in the LONG RUN, this may be the case, but please, I beg of you, show us the 100% increase in DEMAND from last year. Please, show us the decrease in SUPPLY from last year.

You are correct, your statements are no conspiracy theory, my mistake. Rather you are an ALARMIST, the sky is FALLING, oil is NON-RENEWABLE, there is a limited supply...blah blah blah. By your perception, the freaking oil is going to be gone by next week. Get a grip buddy, the WORLD is awash in oil and gasoline, and will be so for MANY, MANY, MANY years to come. YES, it will end, we know this! Grade schoolers KNOW this, BUT we have time, plenty of TIME to move on to/develop other fuels.

 

[increasenow]

Quote from ess1096:

With SOOOOO many peolple watching the $120 mark for support I can only imagine how many sell stops are sitting just below $120, actual as well as mental stops.
A close below $120 can excellerate oil into a freefall. If so, a touch of $100 in the near future is not unlikely. imo

great post and totally agree...free fall like "six flags"

 

[ess1096]

Quote from ess1096:

With SOOOOO many peolple watching the $120 mark for support I can only imagine how many sell stops are sitting just below $120, actual as well as mental stops.
A close below $120 can excellerate oil into a freefall. If so, a touch of $100 in the near future is not unlikely. imo

Now I'll take the other side of my own post.
Looking at the chart, July Oil might try to test that $126 level. Especially with the dollar hitting resistance.And I see stronger support at the $118 level than at the $120 level.
No predictions here, but I will be watching closely.

 

[JSSPMK]

Quote from JSSPMK:

Identify current trend: Bull & price is at daily TL

Identify time of change in trend may occur: There is a triple divergence on daily calling for at least $115

Volatility is about to increase here as we have 2 parties increasing their positions at times like now, whoever wins we as traders ought to follow, basically always try & seek out a winning party.

Looking at the daily chart & 240 as well as a lead I would not exclude a bounce (half daily chart also supports a bounce). Bounce or even continuation of trend as trend is still intact, just look at price, right on TL.

Basically, get the vaseline out as some of you trading this contract are about to be raped

Use stops

For the record I am not trading CL at the moment