20 reasons why Oil to NEVER hit $135.00 again...dated: May 22, 2008

Quote from rubibond007:

The Physical settle brent at ICE is a OTC market.
The Brent Futures contract is a Cash settle contract.

There is a lot of money to be made on this IF you have a Deep Pocket.

let me explain something, WTI minus dated Brent should be roughly equal to the freight rate, for that reason in a normal market the crude-oil prices usually depend on two things: quality and location. The greater the distance from the major exporters, the greater the price, That's why the Brent crude costs $1-$2 less than WTI crude.

Brent and WTI at Cushing, Okla are really of similar quality. But Brent has traded at discount to similar crude in the U.S. because oil from the Middle East or Africa costs less to ship to Europe than it does to the U.S.

That's Why is so important to watch the freight market when you trade de Brent/WTI spread.. Normaly, when the freight rates drops, then a lot of physical traders and countries start importing massive quantities of Brent and the spread between the Brent vs the WTI go in a contango, Right Now the Freight rates are in a bull situation, So what you are seeing right now with this spread is a Huge basis trading game.

Nymex crude is out of whack with the realities of global demand, Brent crude is more of a reflection of worldwide demand right now.

IF the WTI/BRENT goes into a contango (its 23 cents away from that), Then I recommend you to avoid the front-end contracts and position yourselve in the longer-dated contracts and hedge the spread with a long position in WTI contango.

BTW: The IPE index right now is just a tool to make some money "underbeneath the table"..
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Good post rubibond007.

In the mid 1990s I saw an internal report written by an analyst at a major oil firm voicing concern regarding the forecasted production decline in Brent crude oil and the potential problems with cargo pricing that could occur as a result.

Late last year I was on a website called "European Tribune" and I came across the following in the "comments" section:

"Certainly the decline in Brent crude oil production led eventually to the Brent 15 day market becoming an accident waiting to happen, and there was a squeeze practically every other month as the number of cargoes available for trading declined and the depth of pockets necessary for squeezes fell."

Do you agree with the commenter's assessment and, if so, would this not have some impact on the WTI - Brent spread?

Thanks.
 
Quote from gangof4:

not that another idiot starting a thread deserves a comment, but i couldn't resist. i'll use your format:

1. you're clearly not a trader- nobody who trades with real $ would use the word "NEVER" regarding price. are you really as fucking dense as you appear?

2. like #1, no trader would think that a list of reasons (right or wrong) have dick to do with today or tomorrow's print.

3. a question: when you spent all this time writing up your sophomoric 20 reasons, did you think it was going to reflect positively on you in terms of credibility? clearly you did with your 'time stamp' in the title to memorialize your wicked awesome call of the oil top. putz. hint: any real trader now views you as a complete joke.

4. another question: if CL falls tuesday and we have a pullback, are you going to believe that such a pullback validates your paper trader's premise in the OP? hint again: it won't and, if you come back crowing about how right you were, you will further reveal yourself as an even greater idiot (if that is possible).

5. this post is being written by someone who is SHORT CL- and has the scars to prove it.

conclusion: it's posts like yours, by dolts like you, which makes me very nervous about being short. being on the same side of a trade with idiots like you makes me think i've got to be on the wrong side of this trade. the only caveat is, of course, i'm short actual money.
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finnaly a short whos actually sane. there is no doubt that the market is running wild and bound to crash for a while but for some reason some shorts feel like they need to 'convince themselves' its all a bubble based on fantasy, they will jump on any bearish argument doing little homework and rationalize anything
 
Quote from rubibond007:

The Physical settle brent at ICE is a OTC market.
The Brent Futures contract is a Cash settle contract.
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disagreed...here is why...

ICE Brent Crude IS a physical or financially settled contracted...click on this link:

https://www.theice.com/publicdocs/IPE_EF_Explained.pdf

also read this from the ICE website...

Trading Methods:
Electronic futures, Exchange of futures for physical (EFP), Exchange of futures for swap (EFS) and Block Trades are available for this contract.
Delivery/Settlement Basis:
The ICE Brent Crude futures contract is a deliverable contract based on EFP delivery with an option to cash settle, i.e the ICE Brent Index price for the day following the last trading day of the futures contract.
 
Quote from travelingtrader:

"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"

I could see oil going to $200 or higher. But it will be back below $70 within two years.
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I could see oil going to $70 or lower. But it will be back above $200 within 2 years.
 
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vfITjJ0IQiDA.asf



"Wall Street never changes, the pockets change, the suckers change, the stocks change, but Wall Street never changes, because human nature never changes." ---Jesse Livermore


OIL WILL GO UP FOREVER!!!!!! CHINA AND INDIA WILL CONSUME ALL OF IT AND MAKE UP THE LOSS OF DEMAND FROM THE USA (LARGEST CONSUMER), JAPAN (3RD LARGEST WITHIN THROWS OF A RECESSION) , EUROPE (ALREADY IN A DRAMATIC SLOWDOWN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GERMANY).

GOLDMAN PRICE TARGET OF 200 IS REASONABLE AFTER ALL ABBY JOSEPH COHEN SAID DOW WOULD HIT 20000 IN 2000. BOOYAH

IF YOU ARE TRADING OIL THEN GOOD LUCK BECAUSE YOU ARE GOING TO NEED IT. IF YOU ARE AN EXCEPTIONAL TRADER YOU CAN MAKE A FORTUNE YET THE PROFESSIONALS WILL LIKE LOSE MONEY AND PROBABILTY WISE YOU WILL TOO.

PS
BY THE WAY GOLDMAN SACHS WAS A FOUNDED AS NOTORIOUS INVESTMENT POOL THAT MANIPULATED STOCKS THROUGHOUT THE EARLY 20TH CENTURY AT THE EXPENSE OF THE SMALL INVESTOR. YET THEY HOLD THIS SO CALLED STELLAR REPUTATION.

READ YOUR HISTORY BOOKS, THEY WILL SURVIVE THE MARKET HOWEVER MOST SMALL UNSOPHISTICATED INVESTORS WON'T.
 
All I know, is that, according to EW, oil will still go up for a bit, but a violent crash is on its way....the question is when.

The last two days, I have seen oil stocks pull back. To me, when I see stocks pull back it is a reliable indicator that the commodity will soon follow.:cool:
 
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