20 reasons why Oil to NEVER hit $135.00 again...dated: May 22, 2008

Quote from increasenow:

Oil to NEVER hit $135.00 again...dated: May 22, 2008...here is why...read...
1-Many will continue to profit take as price target of $135 was hit
2-Dollar is getting stronger
3-Commodity bubble about to burst
4-there will be HUGE after memorial day sell off...watch for it...will start tomorrow, Friday May 23 ,2008
5-Next Wed EIA report will be massively bearish stating overstock of inventory...
6-monthly supply reports should show back up of inventory
7-when it begins, watch out, will fall hard...
8-much of upward price momentum has been short covering rally
9-Venezuala issues appear to be a 'non issue'
10-Iran supply issues are 'not there'
11-market did not budge when congress said no more stock piling invenotry
12-"irrational exuberance" in Oil cannot continue
13-gas prices will rise and demand will lessen thus ending demand for Oil
14-Green options (non Oil required...I.e. Wind farms etc.) will continue to grow
15-COT report will begin to show this...this lack of demand for Oil
16-the "prophetic" future contracts in months, years to come are price less then the current front month contract...so, traders are expecting that Oil price will and should decline!!!
17-Brent Crude is almost same price as WTI Crude thus indicating the 'devaluing' of the WTI Nymex product...
18-China etc.cannot keep current pace of 'craving' for commodities such as Oil etc.
19-Ethanol boom will become a 'bust' thus creating desire for 'purer' return to gas and normal Oil supply/demand
20-Inflation to be proven 'non issue' and price of Oil comes down as economy strengthens

Disclosure: this is my opinion only. Do your own research before buying or selling Oil futures or USO stock or USO options or even OIH, DUG etc..or anything Oil related...

PLEASE ADD YOUR POINTS #21, #22,#23...etc..
More...
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IncreaseNow;
You make some excellant points.
And hope you are right.

Premarket, you still are right;
& I am talkining about hitting a closing price.0f 135 [ not intraday]

And adding to your scenario;
Morgan Stanley got caught [Soros Senate hearings, recently] grinding the faces of the poor, in oil markets .Morgan Stanley has some great stock market makers like Joshua Lukeman;
so they should exit oil futures markets.BP got fined $300 million in propane cheating.

However oil & unleaded , long term trend trend is still up;
frankly its not only the probability of a tornado spiking oil,
its the trend is still up.

And Holy Biblical patterns of Israel defending'/striking Iran/enemies;
US defending/striking enemies in Iraq.......favors oil above $135 close, eventually:cool: Shortages could spike it, even with Morgan Stanly stopping grinding the faces of the poor, in oil futures markets..:cool:
 
Quote from murray t turtle:

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IncreaseNow;
You make some excellant points.
And hope you are right.

Premarket, you still are right;
& I am talkining about hitting a closing price.0f 135 [ not intraday]

And adding to your scenario;
Morgan Stanley got caught [Soros Senate hearings, recently] grinding the faces of the poor, in oil markets .Morgan Stanley has some great stock market makers like Joshua Lukeman;
so they should exit oil futures markets.BP got fined $300 million in propane cheating.

However oil & unleaded , long term trend trend is still up;
frankly its not only the probability of a tornado spiking oil,
its the trend is still up.

And Holy Biblical patterns of Israel defending'/striking Iran/enemies;
US defending/striking enemies in Iraq.......favors oil above $135 close, eventually:cool: Shortages could spike it, even with Morgan Stanly stopping grinding the faces of the poor, in oil futures markets..:cool:
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agreed...todays "weak" move signals about to drop and hard...$120's here we come...bearish sentiment on Oil continues...
 
Quote from increasenow:

agreed...todays "weak" move signals about to drop and hard...$120's here we come...bearish sentiment on Oil continues...
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1. why does a "weak" move (in anything traded) only signal "about to drop".... and drop "hard"?

2. why does "bearish sentiment" mean a market must go lower,

3. and how are you measuring bearish sentiment ?

you don't say in the above post
 
Previously seen weakening price action via a divergence now seems to be switching to strengthening/basing for a breakout to the upside. Weekly chart is not just bullish, but a 'runaway trend'. 720m chart indicates that tomorrow bulls will be bid crazy crushing all shorts, expect big vola to the upside ImPO at the time when stock markets indicate weakness for tomorrow.

To survive in this game it's important not to 'fall in love' with a bias, but to follow a chart's indications. Anyway, that's what I see :)

Best to all!

I will be trying to go long at first Long signal via the electronic & stay long into MOC (scaled trade).

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1968883>
 

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Quote from iceman1:

1. why does a "weak" move (in anything traded) only signal "about to drop".... and drop "hard"?

2. why does "bearish sentiment" mean a market must go lower,

3. and how are you measuring bearish sentiment ?

you don't say in the above post
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here is my take...CL cannot push higher and falls lower later in the day...no momentum for the bulls to take higher...hence, the downward fall at the end of the day tells me bulls are tiring and Oil bear market about to begin...
 
Quote from JSSPMK:

Previously seen weakening price action via a divergence now seems to be switching to strengthening/basing for a breakout to the upside. Weekly chart is not just bullish, but a 'runaway trend'. 720m chart indicates that tomorrow bulls will be bid crazy crushing all shorts, expect big vola to the upside ImPO at the time when stock markets indicate weakness for tomorrow.

To survive in this game it's important not to 'fall in love' with a bias, but to follow a chart's indications. Anyway, that's what I see :)

Best to all!

I will be trying to go long at first Long signal via the electronic & stay long into MOC (scaled trade).

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1968883>
More...
whew...wow...amazingly bold call in the face of the bearish drop off at the end of todays trading...wow...bold call!
 
Quote from increasenow:

whew...wow...amazingly bold call in the face of the bearish drop off at the end of todays trading...wow...bold call!
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1. Nothing "amazingly bold" there because I am trying to follow 'footprints' on a bullish chart ImPO
2. I believe that real weakness will only form on Weekly chart, not yet
3. If you were right on your 'prediction' of afternoon sell-off that would be just luck :)

BTW in all those points that you make, whether valid or not, you seem to not have included any timing indicators. It's all well to come up with fundamental reasons, but you DO need technical analyses research to see when conditions start turning bearish.
 
Quote from JSSPMK:

BTW in all those points that you make, whether valid or not, you seem to not have included any timing indicators. It's all well to come up with fundamental reasons, but you DO need technical analyses research to see when conditions start turning bearish. [/B]
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apparently some people don't think major/minor trends matter that much and wake up one day and read some news and decide this is the exact moment when the trend will reverse ! :-)
 
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