20% per month trading half of the time with a 75% winrate and under 1% drawdown

[ElectricSavant]

Ok...I must reread your post. I do not variate the tradesize. I noted the video that was mentioned.

1 micro contract.

ES

Your assuming that gap risk only happens in overnight sessions. Market can gap down mid day, towards the beginning or end of session. Just because your data doesn’t take this into account doesn’t mean it will not happen to you in the near future or distant future or never. But it’s there.. the longer your exposed, the more likely this will come and take you out of a lot of gains you made up to that point.

And if you ignore such a risk maybe due to its unlikelihood, just know that your statistical expectation is zero and that law of large numbers will take you out.

 

[tiddlywinks]

If those stats excite you, and fit your personality and your goals, then you should persue.
20% per month does not excite me.

 

[ElectricSavant]

Fair enough...Good trading to you..

If those stats excite you, and fit your personality and your goals, then you should persue.
20% per month does not excite me.

 

[guru]

Looks exciting to me.
How far back have you backtested this strategy? And how long have you been running it live?

 

[ElectricSavant]

not long enough...I got to trade it live...its only a micro

Looks exciting to me.
How far back have you backtested this strategy? And how long have you been running it live?

 

[tiddlywinks]

not long enough...I got to trade it live...its only a micro

A micro, with a $50 (fifty dollar) INTRADAY margin requirement and you are in SIM?!??
And you think you are going to execute at 10x the values. That is the LIE of the micros.

ES, you've been on ET a long time. Maybe too long.

 

[Amahrix]

Looks exciting to me.
How far back have you backtested this strategy? And how long have you been running it live?

Backtesting brings about the problem of induction. This deserves further research. Bear this in mind when back testing.

 

[ElectricSavant]

ok...I will find out...good trading to you

A micro, with a $50 (fifty dollar) INTRADAY margin requirement and you are in SIM?!??
And you think you are going to execute at 10x the values. That is the LIE of the micros.

ES, you've been on ET a long time. Maybe too long.

 

[ElectricSavant]

I generally forward test...I do not believe in curve-fitting.

There are some people I have on ignore so if I do not respond to them thats ok...

They will be here....I am stalked!

ES

Backtesting brings about the problem of induction. This deserves further research. Bear this in mind when back testing.

 

[Amahrix]

I generally forward test...I do not believe in curve-fitting.

Glad you’re aware of curve fitting, therefore when I recommend tail risk hedging, it should make a lot of sense to you. Any and every strategy needs to incorporate this. It is survival.