Quote from traderhf:
Blotto,
Thanks a lot for your detailed reply. I gather few very interesting observations from you viz.
1. Going through ccy futures on majors is a very good point indeed, provided If I can get 25 bucks in one go in futures markets (duing London hours) at a one pip spread that will be great. I haven't looked really at ccy futures, but will look at them tomorrow to see the liquidity.
2. About getting credit lines with banks, and doing 40 buck size in one go can be another solution. I might be able to do it. Any idea what kind of spread we are talking about on majors EUR, GBP, CHF, JPY during london/ny hours for 40bucks size and say 70 bucks size from banks.
3. Now, I am getting closer to the point where I might be able to go via EBS/Reuters route, and since I am concentrating primarily on majors, I do not have to be concerned too much about crosses and exotics at this stage as ccooper said.
To answer your question, basically I am looking at doing size during open and close it after few hours or so, strictly closing positions within 12-14 hours. Sometimes, it will be very feasible for me to enter in slices of say 2-5bucks each over EBS etc. over a period of 5-10 minutes, but at other times I will like to ideally get done in under a minute. I think then having a credit line set-up with few banks and doing trades in OTC market might be my best bet.
If everything goes as planned, I will explore ,more and report back on my findings. Thanks for your pointers!
1. Stick a 100 lot limit in crossing the best bid / offer in front month 6E after 7.30 London time and see how you get filled. Be aware that if you do this with say 250 lots and trade the level out it will affect pricing in other venues also - as has been pointed out by someone more familar with this than me. No advantage in trying to do some in spot and some in futures. Japanese Yen futures are liquid, but not pound. The pound futures are really 3-4 wide in this sort of size - you'd be better off with a decent spot setup.
2. Would depend on the relationship you have with the LP and how you are trading. I can't give you specifics as I've never done this.
3. The quality of execution on EBS will depend on how you are set up and who is quoting you.
So it appears your best option is to job in via IB or futures the times you can scale, but have access to the full quote from a bank the times you need the trade done immediately. The bank will charge you an extra spread for getting the size on. I wonder if it would not be as effective for you to take the first 25 close to the market - 1 point or so on Euro and pay up on the rest? You may get the remaining 15 or so 2 / 3 points higher for buys.
As you'll know there are times you can scale in without the market getting away from you. The times you can't best just to pay up, as that is what other participants will be doing. If you are correct on this you'll still get most of your size on in time.
Think about who is providing the prices you see, and how other large particpants get size on. You have distinguished between times when you can get it on in slices and times when the market will get away from you. In the latter case you need to pay up. Good pricing relationships will help with this, but you still need to pay up when the market will get away from you. The bank quoting you the deal in size is in the same position, and it will go against their book most of the time if you are right.
I'll give you an example from an exchange traded market. Friday's natural gas. There was no meaningful supply left to enter the market. Sufficient inventory had been accumulated the prior day and the inevitable result was higher prices. Large players can read this. The objective is then to get as much as they can done while there is still some supply. Between 09:30 and 09:45 the remaining supply was absorbed. Traders wanting to establish or increase longs at this point have no choice but to pay up.
A trader swept the book for 200 lots. Non marketable limit buys would not be filled at this stage, as there would be no more forthcoming aggressive sell orders. The only choice is to pay up. The trader got them all done within 10 ticks, and an average of 6 points away from the inside market at the time she swept the book. This is one of the times you need to pay up. If you put in an order and get 250 lots done in Euro, and need to pay up 3 ticks to get the other 250 done, there is no harm in doing this if you understand that is how you need to get them. In gas you had some time to get smaller lots filled after the sweep but you would have needed to pay above 3.975. Other participants are still trying to get long and add, so paying a wider spread to get the size done earlier makes sense if you can read the condition. Same goes for FX.
Access to good relationships with liquidity providers can help a great deal, but in the end you are competing with other participants who are all after the same side of the market and will set their orders / quotes appropriately to the condition.
I'm sure a little bit of the granny and eggs here, but certainly more to getting size on than the venues you are trading, and may be useful to others also.
Do get back to us with your results, I'd be interested in seeing which approach you decide on.