20.042933%

[Woodrow97]

People can say eh all they want. But eventually nobody can resist the fomo. If we are entering a permanent 3% interest era then sp should be at least 5000

If interest rates are hitting 3% permanently than the NASDAQ is in BIG trouble. The earnings yield on that index is.... (drumroll) exactly 3%, and 2.5% when including all those tech firms which grow revenues and bleed money. You gotta look at other indices too, there are huge price to earnings differentials among them.

In October of last year there was one day the 10 year hit 3.33% when the NASDAQ hit 45 P/E, coupled with a false article from Bloomberg about China putting spy software into U.S. servers, well, the rest is history.

 

[dozu888]

If interest rates are hitting 3% permanently than the NASDAQ is in BIG trouble. The earnings yield on that index is.... (drumroll) exactly 3%, and 2.5% when including all those tech firms which grow revenues and bleed money. You gotta look at other indices too, there are huge price to earnings differentials among them.

In October of last year there was one day the 10 year hit 3.33% when the NASDAQ hit 45 P/E, coupled with a false article from Bloomberg about China putting spy software into U.S. servers, well, the rest is history.

The ‘fed model’ argument usually uses the SP. the NDX has such high growth rate its comparing apples and blackberries to the gov bonds.

 

[Woodrow97]

The ‘fed model’ argument usually uses the SP. the NDX has such high growth rate its comparing apples and blackberries to the gov bonds.

No, you'll be amazed. In terms of ROE, ROA, earnings yield, revenue growth, the NDX components are only 200-300 bps higher than the SPX. But currently we have roughly 33 to 40 P/E for the former and 18 to 22 P/E for the latter. It's more like comparing a Fuji to a Granny Smith apple.

Regards to the fed model, all I can say is: correlation exists and can be dangerous.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

I think you're right. And not only that, if it ever gets to the point at which free money is a "problem" (lol), "they" will get enough notice.

 

[Steve Alexander]

What is this number? See if you have been paying attention.

Liberals with common sense?

 

[dozu888]

Liberals with common sense?

Dont get me started. 20% is a massive overstatement.

 

[Overnight]

Well, guess what ladies and gentlemen. This upcoming week we're going to be right back where we started in Sep/Oct 2018. What to do, what to do.

All the pundits out there are calling for another correction already. As if two in 7 months wasn't enough last year. Well, here we are, 7 months after the start of the last one, and everyone screams "we gotta' have another correction now!" Bloody hell, why do we? They will probably find a way to make it happen.

 

[ironchef]

When woman loves, she loves for real.

When the stock market loves, she loves for real.

Fly to the moon stock market, I be in the back sitting by the window relaxing and listening to my good buddy R. Kelly.

You are quoting R Kelly on this topic?

 

[SimpleMeLike]

You are quoting R Kelly on this topic?

ironchef,
Yes, I am. Everybody else bullshitting on this topic, I figure I bullshit as well. My view on this topic remains,......, I am LONG and STRONG the stock market. Where going Market, to the moon.

 

[SimpleMeLike]

You are quoting R Kelly on this topic?

The market going to bear condition or recession. Yeah sure, I believe it when I see it.

I am like Kevin Gates on this topic: "Really , Really "