Yes you keep repeating meaningless bs for years on end and losing money as a result of your theories. Even worse, you've made claims about this black swan event that haven't happened at all like they did. As per usual, we get this cycle from you and others of gleefully noting a correction and expecting the floor to drop out, followed by the same old tired excuses why it didn't.
2.3Trillion from the Fed... Why you want to fight against it?
- Thread starter greeneveryday
- Start date
Yes you keep repeating meaningless bs for years on end and losing money as a result of your theories. Even worse, you've made claims about this black swan event that haven't happened at all like they did. As per usual, we get this cycle from you and others of gleefully noting a correction and expecting the floor to drop out, followed by the same old tired excuses why it didn't.
they spent their last bullet already by cutting the interest rates with no direct effect back then; this is going down, maybe not monday or next week, but you will be surprised, no way this is THE bottom
But they buy credit not stocks and markets are more expensive than in February
And debts are huge and those zombies need more debt to survive
And no buybacks and dividends cut
Anything is possible but best case for s&p is 2600 and we are 200 points higher
I will never ever short except for day trade and still somewhat long as a hedge if fed goes completely off rails but Europe and Japan examples show valuations still mater even with negative rates and extreme money printing
Its a band-aide but it had to be done. We'll rally on news of a pending vaccine, which I'd imagine will be forthcoming soon enough.
Gotta get oil up though, that's a biggie. Trump has his hands full so a little war in the Persian Gulf is probably out of the question.
Then there's the whole healthcare thing, that's like 18% of our gdp. 18 friggin percent. The November election is too close to call and its gonna have huge implications in this regard, especially now.
The markets will move when Biden announces his Veep, for better or worse. I know that hasn't been the case historically, but this time's different I think. Now this one always garnishes me heat, but I've said it all along... Stacey Abrams (qualified or not, I'm not writing this to debate that, just calling it like it is) will generate the much needed level of AA interest to swing the results.
And then there's the whole election process itself. How's that gonna work? Mail in ballots? 6 foot spacing will mean lines 10 miles long. So we have that whole thing. (stay on topic here... take that debate to the ET cellar too... its not the point)
The point is, we have a lot of uncertainty ahead. No one knows, not even moi. I do know we aren't hitting ATH's anytime soon however. Sure there'll be spikes, short squeezes... fortunes will be made and lost in the chop. Mostly lost for the retail folks who are gonna try to get it all back at once. Never works, been there too.
So... in a nutshell, we're near a top 4now until things get a little clearer... and good luck with that.
THE LEANING TOWER OF DOZU
-vz
well said
I'd bet we basically put in the yearly bottoms already, regardless of the wicked choppiness that could occur until the economy starts to rebound from the virus. I don't know why some of you bears are so absolutely certain of your ideas at all times regardless of the evidence otherwise. You'd think a few lessons would have been learned from 2009-2013. However, I think in some cases it's traders believing markets are fake or contrived not what they really are ( ownership in the world's businesses ). In any event, the ultimate bottom doesn't matter; many stocks will be at much higher prices just a few weeks ago within a year and the rebound will not be flagged for people to get on board that train.
That's exactly what they are... ownership in the world's businesses... and I think sometimes the perma-bulls forget that. I'm not a bear or a bull... I don't wear a jersey... but I do have eyes that see.
There's probably about a half dozen or so ratios we could discuss when evaluating the fair market value of a company, the bigger the company, the more complicated it gets obviously. But lets keep things simple for now and look at PE.
The current PE of the DOW is 18.45, the Naz 100 is 23, the S&P 500 is 19, and the Russell 2000 (small caps) comes in at a whopping 32.5. These are all based on TTM earnings.
Know what the PE on the DOW was a year ago? 18.24! Does that sound right to you... all things considered... that the DOW is more expensive now than it was a year ago?! After the haircuts the likes of Boeing and Cat have taken. No friggin way.
Or lets look at the Russell. Now I ask you.... would you buy a company for 32.5 times its current earnings? I realize this is a huge over-simplification, but would you pay $3,250,000 for a company that clears $100,000/year after the dust settles? 32 years to recoup your investment? I sure wouldn't, even in the best of times. But obviously people do. Why(?)... because of "future growth potential". Well guess what, these companies are going to be hit the hardest. How many of these companies pay any kind of dividend? Not a lot. How many are saddled with debt? Quite a lot.
This is not rocket-science my friend... in light of the current situation, these (already sky-high before Corona) valuations will not be saved by a 2 Trillion band-aide going forward. A vaccine is at least a year and a half out if what they say is true and we don't have one yet to even start testing. Sure we can selectively allow certain areas and certain businesses to open back up.... but you brought up 2008 and 2013 as "haven't ya'll learned anything"... well I'll tell ya what my Canadian friend... you are missing quite a bit here. This is not 2008/2013, far from it. We are in uncharted waters and fundamental metrics will always win in the end... ESPECIALLY in times of high uncertainty.
Until we have a rock solid vaccine in the works.... there's not going to be any new highs. Wake up and smell the Tim Hortons bud. Just don't go inside to buy any. These markets are coming down.
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With volatility and uncertainty so high, equities are uninvestible. Currently equities are trading like oil or bitcoin, which are horrible long-term investments due to their extreme volatility. Until equity volaltility comes down meaningfully (like VIX below < 20) the stock market will be a great trading product (like oil and bitcoin), but a horrible long-term investment.
But trading opportunities will abound, that's for sure.
This is going to be the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. It's doubtful something that bad will only have a 2-week long bear market.