$2,000 to $200,000 in 2020 at 2.00% per day.

The latest explanation I read for the waterfall decline is that the BANKS have billions of $ in derivatives that are starting to go sour. This was a big catalyst in the 2008 recession. I guess they didn't learn their lesson...

This infographic was posted in another thread:

world-money-infographic.png

https://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimed...png?uuid=44e9a602-d484-11e7-b2b7-9c8e992d421e

AAPL: $800 billion market cap

All the world's gold: $7.7 trillion

Derivatives market: between $500 trillion and $1 quadrillion - "The truth is no one really knows the size of the market"

Interesting stuff if not a little unsettling.
 
am so happy this week is over. I hope you survived. Two people I talked to this week got margin calls, but probably 70% of the traders did... So don't beat yourself up. It was a black swan. Yes, it may not be over, but I think the worst of it is. Jump back in and trade just one or two micros for a bit if your confidence is shot. You will be back on top in no time!

I mentioned earlier that I widened my stop this week, but it is time to reign it back in to 40 ticks per MYM or MNQ. That is $20 per micro contract. If the market gets back to "normal," I may even go for a tighter stop still. I used to trade with a 20 tick stop on the YM and NQ. That is $100 per E-mini. I have even used at 10 tick stop before. The nice thing about a 10 tick stop is that when you are wrong, you are out fast. And it forces you to better evaluate every single entry.

With the help of a friend, I have been experimenting this week with the MES - with the idea of graduating to the ES sooner than later - and ditching the MYM/YM and MNQ/NQ. But I am undecided. It seems like I am finally making some progress, and I really like them. So I am not sure what I will do. Still thinking.

The NQ is beyond nuts now, and even with my upgraded Internet (1000 Mbps down and 40 Mbps up as of last night) my orders seemed SO SLOW in this fast moving market. My rationale for not trading the ES in the past has been because it has been too slow. Well Dorothy, "your not in Kansas any more!" The ES is on fire too, and it might work just fine for me. I know most people trade the ES, so I would be in good company.

By the way, going forward, I will be posting much LESS here on ET. I really need to focus, and my friend also observed that I am spread way too thin... Unfortunately, I couldn't disagree with him; he was right. So this will probably be my last long post. I have so much to do, and I know I make trading errors because of the hectic pace I keep and the lack of focus. It will also help if I just trade two hours each day (like I said in one of my first posts.)

No offense @sstheo , but I have to call it the way I see it, and it sounds to me like you had a bit of a crash in your account. You can talk all you want about how you have less time to post, how your mentor is saying you're distracted, etc., but if you made $500 instead of your typical $100, you would be in here sharing this. (ie. you would be sharing a success if it happened, instead of switching gears which is what happens after a failure)

There never really was any point, in my humble opinion, to you sharing long posts. Those cute little screen captures of the largest drops took a while to assemble, but it really has nothing to do with how you trade. All you had to do in this journal, and all I ever thought your intentions were, was to share your trades and the growth of your account. This just requires a chart upload along with a screen capture of your account balance or whatever you were willing to share. It was supposed to be as simple as making an average of 20 ticks per day, just as an example, and then trading 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, etc. contracts based on the account going up every $500.

The way I read what you wrote, its as if you're explaining that even higher internet speeds and wider stops couldn't stop the carnage to your PnL. Heck, even switching instruments is now on your radar because of the huge volatility. Mind you though, I do completely agree with this. The NQ was moving 10 points in 1 second. The only way to combat this was to literally increase the stop to 30 or 40 points and trade only 1 contract. (but it sounds like your 40 tick stop, 10 NQ points, just wasn't enough, and it clearly wasn't)

I bet you got frustrated by the stop-outs after the violent moves, probably right after entry (it was happening to me as well). And so now because of this, you're saying you're going to be posting less because you need more focus, and switching instruments, and blah blah blah, but really, its just probably because of a horrible day with many small losses that added up.

When I look at the 1 minute chart, it really doesn't look much different than any other day if I don't focus on the price scale.

NQ - naked.png


But when I add in just one piece of information, like my lines indicating every 50 points, its clear how huge these moves were.

NQ - lines.png


If we consider the NQ has a range of roughly 100 points each day, give or take, but now see a range of 400 or so, I think this means we have to increase stops by a factor of 4, and reduce size by 4, and then we get some equivalency. Of course its easy for me to say all this in hindsight, but that chart above really doesn't much different than this next one I picked at random that looks almost similar in terms of how it moves up from the open, and down to the open again, and then back up.

NQ 2 - naked.png


But when we look at those same 50 point lines, it becomes obvious what the difference is.

NQ 2 - lines.png


Anyway, I guess what I'm saying is that I wish I'm wrong and I wish that you didn't have a horrible day, but I feel like if I read between the lines, there is quite a bit more to the story. And now you're going about changing everything yet again, and the goal of this journal is completely lost. I really wanted to see you succeed and think you can, but simplification is key. There is no need to make long posts, but just sharing how the day turned out is really all a journal needs.
 
No offense @sstheo , but I have to call it the way I see it, and it sounds to me like you had a bit of a crash in your account. You can talk all you want about how you have less time to post, how your mentor is saying you're distracted, etc., but if you made $500 instead of your typical $100, you would be in here sharing this. (ie. you would be sharing a success if it happened, instead of switching gears which is what happens after a failure)

There never really was any point, in my humble opinion, to you sharing long posts. Those cute little screen captures of the largest drops took a while to assemble, but it really has nothing to do with how you trade. All you had to do in this journal, and all I ever thought your intentions were, was to share your trades and the growth of your account. This just requires a chart upload along with a screen capture of your account balance or whatever you were willing to share. It was supposed to be as simple as making an average of 20 ticks per day, just as an example, and then trading 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, etc. contracts based on the account going up every $500.

The way I read what you wrote, its as if you're explaining that even higher internet speeds and wider stops couldn't stop the carnage to your PnL. Heck, even switching instruments is now on your radar because of the huge volatility. Mind you though, I do completely agree with this. The NQ was moving 10 points in 1 second. The only way to combat this was to literally increase the stop to 30 or 40 points and trade only 1 contract. (but it sounds like your 40 tick stop, 10 NQ points, just wasn't enough, and it clearly wasn't)

I bet you got frustrated by the stop-outs after the violent moves, probably right after entry (it was happening to me as well). And so now because of this, you're saying you're going to be posting less because you need more focus, and switching instruments, and blah blah blah, but really, its just probably because of a horrible day with many small losses that added up.

When I look at the 1 minute chart, it really doesn't look much different than any other day if I don't focus on the price scale.

View attachment 220811

But when I add in just one piece of information, like my lines indicating every 50 points, its clear how huge these moves were.

View attachment 220812

If we consider the NQ has a range of roughly 100 points each day, give or take, but now see a range of 400 or so, I think this means we have to increase stops by a factor of 4, and reduce size by 4, and then we get some equivalency. Of course its easy for me to say all this in hindsight, but that chart above really doesn't much different than this next one I picked at random that looks almost similar in terms of how it moves up from the open, and down to the open again, and then back up.

View attachment 220813

But when we look at those same 50 point lines, it becomes obvious what the difference is.

View attachment 220814

Anyway, I guess what I'm saying is that I wish I'm wrong and I wish that you didn't have a horrible day, but I feel like if I read between the lines, there is quite a bit more to the story. And now you're going about changing everything yet again, and the goal of this journal is completely lost. I really wanted to see you succeed and think you can, but simplification is key. There is no need to make long posts, but just sharing how the day turned out is really all a journal needs.


Your treatise on volatility is amazing. Thanks.

Indeed I did have a bad initial part of the day Friday, but I survived, thanks to the late day rally on Friday. (Apparently from a leaked Goldman Sachs memo saying the Fed will cut rates .50%, as if they know). My trading really sucked this week, and I don't like to post sucky trading results when things are anomalous. What is to be learned from a black swan like last week? People will be dissecting it for decades now. But for me, the lesson is this: IF things look irrational, then I just need to stay away. A 2% upside target is pretty dumb when the risk of a 10% downside looms large. Besides, FLAT is a lot easier to trade.

I have decided not to change my trading at all for now. I am staying with the MNQ and the MYM contracts until I get to at least $5000 in the account. At that point I may try the NQ or the YM or wait until I get to the $10,000 mark first, as stated in a previous post.

upload_2020-3-2_7-1-1.png
 
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Apparently Jerome Powell said this on Friday, and so it wasn't just a rumor. "“The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring developments and their implications for the economic outlook. We will use our tools and act as appropriate to support the economy.” Is this a cut? It is not. Will a rate cut cure a corona virus infection? This whole market is looney.
 
25 micro contracts traded today. $231.00 gross profit - 19.50 comm and fees = $8.46 per contract or 17 ticks average per contract traded. WOW, what volatility!

upload_2020-3-2_21-47-47.png


Did we has as big an up day today as we did a down day on Thursday? It certainly looked like it. With as fast as things were moving, I traded only 1 contract at a time and still had my stop fairly wide. I got some extra trades in right at the end of the day. Here are three losses, and I did slip and scale in on one trade here right at the end of the day. (2 pm my time = close of market.)

green line = good, magenta line = bad ;)

upload_2020-3-2_21-56-21.png
 
So well said!!! It is complex. And I agree that trying to figure out what game the big boys are playing each day is one of the biggest keys.

While I didn't clean house with longs this week, I also didn't get slaughtered trying to short everything that moved. So I am making progress...

although I enjoy your thoughts and posts.. you may be overthinking a lot of this. Just saying. You probably know that though. Keep at it man!
 
Hello sstheo,

I have a question please.

If your goal is to make 2% profit of per day, are you planning to increase profit target per trade or contract size to obtain this 2% per day once the account grows? I am confused on this part.


View attachment 218942

It depends on if this strategy is even scaleable no?

also if he increases his size he needs to assume a new P/L profile
 
Wait until you get a 10k account before going full. I was doing well with the micros and jumped to a full way too early, and one bad day with a full equals a lot of good days with the micros ha ha.

I really do like the idea. I know I could easily go to the E-minis right now at $3,800, but I am trying to set a repeatable and gradually expanding psychological margin of error. Thanks. And yes, I hate the extra commissions, but if all goes well and I stay on the 2% path, then I will be to $10k in 50 trading days or about 2 months.
 
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